Revis, Jets agree contract

According to multiple sources, Darrelle Revis has ended his holdout from the New york Jets, pouring a small but effective bucket of cold water on speculation that he would hold out the entire season.

No terms of the deal are available as yet, but Revis was thought to be looking for a deal to eclipse Nnamdi Asomugha's $45m 3 year deal, which he signed in 2009. Expect to see Revis nudging the $16m mark, but there's every possibility that Revis won't get what he was asking for, as despite every insistence otherwise, he is generally not seen as the type of character who would put money ahead of both his team and his legacy.

With the new season less than a week away, it's no surprise that both sides have found a way to get a deal done - the question is just how long will it take Revis to get back in the saddle?

5 NFL analysts who should be benched immediately.

I just finished reading the worst article on the NFL I have ever read. If you wish to experience castration in mental form, please read Mike Florio's Sporting News article "5 quarterbacks who should be benched". Really the article headline on Profootballtalk had 'now' at the end, but in the interest of pedantry, let's forget that...

Why has this got me so riled? Because it sums up the vapid, vacant, 'if-I-say-something-shocking-enough-people-will-give-me-money' atmosphere that surrounds the world of the NFL. The problem, of course, is that in a competitive environment dominated by alpha-males, a guy who makes reasoned points without shouting can simply be ignored by his colleagues, which in turn gives the impression that his personality may not fit in the vat of testosterone that is an NFL related broadcast.

Without further ado, here's the five worst analysts in the NFL today, starting with the man who 'inspired' this article:


Mike Florio (Profootballtak.com, Sportingnews.com, NBC Sports)

It's hard to write a critique of a man who is quite self-aware in many respects, but Florio is so persistently inane that it's about time somebody offered him a dose of reality.

I actually like this guy. he has a sense of humour, he offers a legal interpretation every now and then, and in total fairness, he has built his website from the ground up based almost entirely on his work. Who doesn't have time for a guy who has lived the dream that us armchair analysts could one day be taken seriously and referenced on respectable websites?

Unfortunately, Florio's ego has become a bit of a problem.

I don't know where to begin with the article above regarding quarterbacks being benched. There is so much wrong with the tone, the content, and the way it has been marketed ('LOOK HOW SHOCKING MY STATEMENT IS!!!') that we could spend all day on this crap. instead, let's focus on Florio's credentials as far as personnel decisions:









Oh. He doesn't have any. The problem with Florio is that he's believed his own hype to the point where he wants to be taken seriously without putting hard work in. You think you can evaluate a QB based on half a mini-camp in some cases? The guy literally suggests that Jimmy Clausen should replace Matt Moore and then backs it up with the baffling reasoning that 'Fox has to prove that Clausen is the long-term answer to save his own job'. What? But what if Moore is better? We don't actually know do we?

Fox doesn't need to be tied to Clausen as long as he's winning, which he has a better chance of doing with a guy who has actually won in the NFL previously, than with an untried rookie - no matter how talented. I struggle to comprehend the mindset behind this kind of writing, because it hasn't been thought through in even the most basic form. How can he be taken seriously writing something like (and this is a direct quote) 'if the Broncos thought enough of Tebow to trade back into Round 1 to draft him, they simply should get him on the field.'

Yes, that's the expert there, churning out rubbish that would embarrass a drunken barfly at 1am, shouting and drooling into some guy's ear about how his team should have gone after McNabb, regardless of how he may fit into the offence. Oh wait, he actually did do that about Arizona! Incredible.

A quick glance at the sportingnews.com site shows another of Florio's articles '10 possible landing spots for T.O.' Just the ten teams Mike? JUST A THIRD OF THE FUCKING LEAGUE? Wow, well that doesn't seem like you've just picked the ten worst teams and then thrown him in there regardless of their situation! This is another of Florio's tricks. He will try to throw in as many possibilities as he can so that when eventually T.O. signs, he can claim that he was right. This happens in other articles too, using the old 'here's my prediction in great detail, but I'll qualify that by putting the complete opposite as a possible outcome at the end of the article' trick.

Great work Mike.

Florio should be culled immediately. He has no basis to make these sweeping judgements, and he's become slightly confused, it would seem, about his role. Why do people visit FLorio's 'rumour mill'? Could it be for rumours? I think it could! Unfortunately, as traffic has boomed and NBC has pumped money into the rumour-mill, Mike has changed the tone of the site dramatically. The high volume of posts has been replaced with a group of staff writers who seemingly just keep the place ticking over until Florio churns out his 5 posts a day that are essentially all opinion. The ratio of rumour:opinion has changed to about 1:5, indicating Florio's belief that people were visiting his site because of him, rather than because of the content.

Here's the deal Mike: They weren't, and they aren't.

Nobody has any respect for your opinion on actual football matters. You have time and again exposed the fact that you don't actually watch that much football, so why bother embarrassing yourself by commenting on personnel, tactics, and in general anything to do with on-field issues. To be successful as a 'personality', you need to accept that you are nothing more than a mouthpiece for the rumours. Your 'league sources' are a handy asset, but your outlandish 'take' on their whisperings is often cringeworthy.

So stick to the rumours Mike, it's what you're good at.

Warren Sapp (NFL Network)

Ah the 'QB KILLA' himself. Warren Sapp. A beast of a man, one of the most dominant interior linemen to ever play the game. One of the worst analysts to ever grace our screens.

Sapp's unique selling point seems to be his ability to... er... shout in a funny manner? He just shouts. That's it. What is most frustrating about this is that we saw during his playing career that Sapp had a personality that should have transferred to the small-screen quite well. Instead, he's an overbearing loudmouth who's jokes seem contrived and unfunny.

Even when discussing D-line, the position he played, Sapp offers little. He rarely gives us the kind of perspective that say, Rod Woodson can. Woodson is able to say a lot without talking very much, and often gives you the insight into what a DB may be thinking given a certain situation. Sapp is the opposite, falling back on cliches and bonhomie in an effort to disguise the fact that he is unable to articulate why he was any good at football in the first place.

Warren Sapp has a small body of work compared to some of the names on this list, but he has not done anything to suggest he belongs as a long-term fixture on our screens. Oh, one last thing - GOOD ANSWER! (at this point Warren claps his hands until Rich Eisen somehow cringes his way into ending the segment)

Gene Wojciechowski (ESPN)

Woj (I'm just calling him Woj. You understand, I'm sure) shouldn't really be on this list. I'm not being gracious here, the idiot shouldn't have been allowed the soapbox to invade our sport with his trite and incredibly sycophantic lunacy.

Whoever employed Woj as senior national sports columnist should have done so on the proviso that he never again post his anus-suckling 'columns' whenever he realises that an issue is big enough for him to comment on. Here's a great story that Gene wrote recently:

Clausen's fall linked to Big Ben fallout Gene Wojciechowski, ESPN.com

The fallout from Ben Roethlisberger's troubles had a big impact on Casey Clausen in the draft, Gene Wojciechowski writes.

April 23, 2010

Of course, having read the first name on this list of morons, you will be aware that the QB in question is named Jimmy. I feel like I've insulted you by pointing that out, but hey, that's the kind of respect I have for you. A fully blown idiot like Woj just plain old forgets what the hell he was talking about half way through the initial sentence of a story.

The biggest issue our friend Woj confronted, was that of Brett Favre. When Favre flip-flopped on his decision to retire - quite unfairly in most sane people's eyes - Woj backed him to the hilt. He wrote damning character assassinations on Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson, based on nothing more than... well... um... the fact that Gene loved Brett Favre.

You see, Gene REALLY loves Brett Favre, I mean REALLY. When he was traded to the Jets, Woj lambasted Thompson for trading away their best QB. Was that true? Maybe, but Aaron Rodgers turned out pretty good huh? Well surely Gene could accept that Rodgers' statistically better season in '08 was at least some vindication of the move right? Wrong! Gene says that the Packers may still have been better with Favre.

The point is, he may be right, but it's the manner in which he blindly defends Favre and his melodramatic ways, the way he castigates a young player like Rodgers purely because he has the nerve to have earned the faith of his team, and the way he saunters into the NFL world to defend people on things he knows nothing about. Woj was wrong about Rodgers because Thompson kept his job, the Packers made the playoffs, and they now have a solid basis for the next 5 years at least. Even the Vikings don't know where they stand with Favre now, even if he did lead them to the NFC title game. Would the Packers change their decision knowing what they do now? I doubt it.

Woj has a long list of players in various sports that he has authored books on, co-written with, and generally cupped the balls of, over the last decade or so. Unfortunately, everything he writes is tainted by the knowledge that he would defend his favourites with such desperate lines as "Even if you can't stand the idea of another Favre unretirement, you have to admire him for working his way around a system usually stacked in favor of the teams, not the players. "

Yeah, great work Gene. Shame you weren't so idealistic when you were calling for a 25yr old Aaron Rodgers to lose his job (and many millions of incentive dollars) back in 2008 huh?

Next.

Mel Kiper Jr. (ESPN)

Unlucky Mel, not even an NFL analyst if we're going to get pedantic, yet still worthy of inclusion on a list like this due to his sheer volume of on-the-record mistakes.

Mel is a bit of a popular target for people looking to make a trendy statement about how little the talking heads know about the draft. You will often hear people talking about him, rattling off his mistakes and laughing at his ridiculous haircut (Peter King, consider yourself lucky that you are quite good at your job) and general demeanour. These are all worthy things, and these people should be congratulated wholeheartedly. Perhaps buy them a beer!

That's it. I suggest you buy people who slag off Mel Kiper jr a beer. What? You want more? For fu...

Ok so first of all Mel has a difficult job. You ever tried doing a mock draft? Guaranteed 99% of mock drafts will be wrong by pick 7, the rest will be done by pick 10. The problem is, Mel and his fellow draft gurus build up players to believe in their own hype, in the media's evaluation of them, when in reality, NFL teams are looking for very different things from a player to what these so called 'experts' are looking for.

This may mean nothing to us as fans, but what about the players? Imagine a guy like Kiper talks you up to be a second round pick, like Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour. What do you do on day one of the draft? The crushing disappointment of being taken in the sixth round must really be quite painful. The same can be said for Andre Woodson, the Kentucky prospect who was tabbed as a first rounder by Kiper, only to slide all the way to the sixth. Woodson is now out of the league, playing in the UFL.

Is that fair on a kid? Most people will argue that they should know from their experiences with teams whether they're likely to get drafted, but that is rubbish. They are guys of 21, 22. They will watch a guy like Kiper and take his word as gospel. Unfortunately, for many of them, the riches they were promised never materialise. But why is this?

Part of Kiper's problem is that he is evaluating the college game and then has absolutely no ability to transfer what he sees into an accurate assessment of the player in the NFL. This is because the guy doesn't have the same passion for the pro game, seemingly. If that truly is the case, then why bother doing a mock? Why bother ranking the players in terms of the NFL? Surely the answer for Mel is to rank players based purely on their college play and leave the question of where they fit into the NFL ranks for those who know what they're looking for in a kid?

Sadly, this doesn't give Kiper his three days of airtime in Spring, where he gets to rattle off just how much he knows about a kid from Bowling Green. He needs to make predictions, because predictions are what idiots feed on. If he stuck to what he saw, people might actually realise that someone like Mike Mayock watches enough NFL and film of prospects to be a far more legitimate 'draft guru' than Mel.

Oh, and those predictions? What about claiming that the 2001 New England Patriots would finish 0-16? The bumbling Pats, of course, would vindicate this assessment by winning just one of the super bowls they played in during the season.

I'll tell you the rest at Mike Williams' hall of fame ceremony

Deion Sanders (NFL Network)

Oh god. I didn't want to do this, I really didn't.

Let's just be clear: If you don't like watching Deion most of the time, you must be nuts. The guy has more charisma in a single pubic hair than most of us can imagine having in a lifetime. He brings insight into the game as far as the position he played and the aspects of fame that he has experienced first-hand. With on-air chemistry like he has with Steve Marriuci and Rich Eisen, the guy should be a wet dream of an analyst.

But he isn't. Sanders has become almost unbearable on his NFL Gameday and NFL Total Access appearances throughout the season.

Deion's heart is in the right place. I do not for a second think he is a bad person - quite the opposite actually - and I certainly don't think he is a bad analyst. His problem is that he considers himself to be a mentor to dozens of players in the NFL, many of whom will at some point go through disputes with management and/or the league at some point. I don't have a problem with Deion defending a player, or even shouting 'PAYDAMAN!' when a guy deserves a new contract like Cleveland WR Josh Cribbs last season.

What I do have a problem with is not knowing exactly who's success Deion has a vested interest in. Sanders is in a privileged position, able to influence viewers and the media with his engaging personality on a TV show that is watched by a lot of NFL fans either on TV or as part of NFL.com's web videos.

When Deion was forced to expose the relationships he has with a large group of (un-named) NFL players as a result of the investigation into Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant last year, it revealed the massive conflict of interest that Sanders has in the pro game. His meddling in Bryant's college career cost Bryant a year of football - probably his most crucial year - and potentially millions of dollars. It's hard to imagine that Deion won't attempt to make this up to young Dez by talking up his performances on NFL Gameday isn't it?

Bryant is just the beginning. Almost nothing that Deion Sanders says can be taken as 'analysis', he is simply trying to protect his select group of friends and adopted sons. The examples are literally too numerous to mention, but we all know by now Deion's signature line: 'PAYDAMAN!'. He is almost constantly looking to gain more money for a group of guys that he has personal links to. Is that fair?

His constant abuse of his privileges has sullied his reputation, and it is gutting as a fan of both Deion and the NFL to say this, but Prime Time is over. Sooner or later something will happen that pushes this issue beyond having a nice friendly chat with Mooch on NFL Network about it, as he did after the Bryant scandal, and having a formal, serious discussion with Roger Goodell about his huge conflict of interest in how the NFL is presented to the public.

McNabb trade a big gamble for Reid and Heckert

There is a consensus building that the Philadelphia Eagles will trade Donovan McNabb in the next few weeks, before turning their franchise over to Kevin Kolb. Is this the right decision?

First of all, I am a big fan of McNabb. Two years ago this same situation would have resulted in fans clamouring for him to get out of town, because he has never quite convinced Eagles fans that he is the guy that will bring them a championship. In the last couple of years, however, he has responded well to the indignity of being benched midway through a game and played better football as a result.

On the other hand, the clock is very much ticking, and McNabb is no longer in his prime. Even with quarterbacks playing longer than ever, McNabb can't be guaranteed to play longer than two more years. Now consider that Kevin Kolb has shown flashes in relief and in pre-season that he is ready to replace McNabb, and you have an interesting quandary for Eagles GM Tom Heckert and coach Andy Reid. Should they trade McNabb now and cash in while they still can? Or would they be better off holding on to McNabb and giving him one or two last shots to win the team a Super Bowl?

The first question is whether the team believs in Kolb to maintain a level of respectability next season. The Eagles fanbase is notorious for it's impatience, so if Kolb starts very slowly there could be an issue. Not only that, but it could be exaggerated further if McNabb is playing well for a new team. Imagine how silly Heckert and Reid are going to look if McNabb takes a perennially losing franchise like Buffalo or Oakland, and turns them into playoff contenders? Maybe it's a long shot, but it's not out of the question. If it happens, they will both be out of jobs.

McNabb's trade value is certainly not as strong as first thought. Part of this is due to the public's lack of awareness about draft pick value in the modern era. The time was that a starting QB was a no-brainer to command a first round pick. Hell, Rick Mirer went for two a first rounder and was then traded within a year. It was just an accepted risk in the nineties. The market has changed in the last ten years, especially as the financial climate has left more teams questioning the value they receive from top picks.

All of a sudden you have players valued at a second rounder who are brought in to start and be the 'franchise' QB, such as McNabb, Matt Cassell in KC, and Matt Schaub in Houston. Where does this leave a player with questionable impact such as Michael Vick? Interesting thought. The general consensus amongst fans is that McNabb and Kolb are worth first rounders, whilst Vick is worth a second. The reality is that few teams will pay a first for a guy who could be done in a year (McNabb), or who hasn't proven himself (Kolb).

The Eagles figure to trade McNabb and extend Kolb in the same way that Green Bay turned Brett Favre loose in favour of Aaron Rodgers two years ago. There has to be a degree of faith in the front office assessment of Kolb for this to work. The reason it worked for the Packers was that they committed to Rodgers, but they also knew that they wouldn't necessarily need to extend him in his first year of starting. Unfortunately, the Eagles have a limited time frame to deal with Kolb's contract. This could lead to decisions being rushed and mistakes being made.

If it was me? I'd probably trade McNabb too, regardless of the trade return. It's the option that makes most sense if you believe in Kevin Kolb as a starter, because after this year he is sure to walk after another year spent on the bench. Where does that leave Philadelphia? Arguably in a bigger mess and tied to McNabb in the twilight of his career. In fact, if they don't trade McNabb, they will be spending their own high draft picks on a QB next year.

Denver could be in the QB market

Reports today suggest that the Denver Broncos have contacted the Philadelphia Eagles about a trade for Donovan Mcnabb. What does this mean for Kyle Orton and the Broncos?

If the rumours are true, firstly it should be noted that the Bills and Browns are also in the mix, as they are the other teams mentioned. This means that there's no guarantee by any means that either the Eagles would trade him only to the Broncos, or that McNabb would agree with Denver over Buffalo or Cleveland. However, one thing it does show is that the Broncos themselevs are not sold on Kyle Orton for next season.

Orton is a restricted free agent who the Broncos would likely be happy to keep him around at the right price. One option that will not be available for the Broncos is to place the lowest tender on Orton (around $1.01m) , for which they would have received a 4th round pick as compensation if he signed for another team. That would be relatively likely considering Orton's demonstration at the beginning of last season and in his initial stint in Chicago that he can win games in the NFL. Unfortunately, although Orton's basic salary was only scheduled to be $620,000 in 2009, he met playing time and performance incentives which mean he will likely have to be given a higher tender to meet the rule that stipulates a player in RFA must be offered a tender of 110% of his last year's salary.

A more realistic option is the higher tender of $1.54m which would net the Broncos a 2nd round pick in compensation. There is no telling what the market would be if that was the case, primarily because although he would be a good short term option for the price, the uncertainty over the potential work stoppage in 2011 may make teams wary of offering a player a long term deal in an unstable market. Remember that for Orton to move, he has to either believe that he will start in his new city, or have the long term security of a new deal. If one of the two is not in place, he could choose to hang around in Denver, even if they have moved for another QB, as he will be eligible for unrestricted free agency - and a much bigger payday - in 2011.

Some Broncos fans were sold on Orton as a franchise QB after the team's strong start this year, but the crushing disappointment of missing the playoffs after such promise has clearly left questions amongst those who are actually making the decisions. Coach Josh McDaniels attempted to swing a deal for Matt Cassel before he joined Kansas City, and he has already traded away Jay Cutler - who arguably has a great deal more talent than Orton ever will. None of this shows mych willingness on the part of the team to lock Orton up long term, and realistically that could well be the pivotal point. Orton has played almost his whole 5 year career on a tiny wage compared to what he could realitsically expect from a multi-year deal, so I would expect that even if the prospects of starting are not greatly enhanced, the increased security would be attractive for him.

One thing we can now do is chalk Denver up on the list of teams that would be interested in adding a QB at some point this offseason. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I had a list of 17 teams that would be interested in potentially be in the market for either a starter or a backup via free agency or the draft. Some are obvious (Oakland, St Louis) whilst others are dependent on a current member of the roster retiring (New Orleans, Minnesota).

There are other combinations of circumstance that could lead teams to look for a new signal caller this year, but at the very least it looks like Denver are looking for an upgrade.

Snowstorm during Super Bowl week hits New York

I've long campaigned that playing the Super Bowl only in domed or warm weather climates detracts from the character of the greatest show on earth.

Think of some of the more iconic moments in the NFL over the years, and some of the greatest images come from games where the elements have come into play. From the great Bears-Packers rivalry that regularly features games below freezing, the AFC championship game between Indianapolis and New England in 2003 in the snow, and the now infamous 'tuck rule' game between the Patriots and Oakland in 2002. Hey, even Santa getting pelted with snowballs in Philadelphia - it was all part of the game, and when you watch a retrospective on any of these moments, the weather simply adds to the memories.

The NFL insists that to host a superbowl, the city must have an average temperature of 50 degrees or more - or else be played in a dome. Whilst I don't have a problem with common sense being applied, it seems a shame that so many stadiums are automatically disqualified from selection on the grounds of their location. Ok, so playing in Lambeau or Soldier Field may be a stretch in February. We all know that secretly even the Packers and Bears players would rather be in a warmer climate, but it annoys me that other cities with more moderate weather are also excluded from the list.

The most obvious example would be Kansas City, who were forced to withdraw their bid to host the Super Bowl in 2015 because Arrowhead does not have a roof, and Jackson County narrowly denied the Chiefs funding to build one in time. The temperature in Missouri at this time of year is not particularly helpful to the cause, but should that prohibit a team from hosting the game? In my view, no.

New York (or New Jersey if we are going to be pedantic) is the next city to try it's luck at a Superbowl, with the new Giants/Jets stadium widely expected to bid for the big game in 2014 or 2015. There has been a massive investment in new stadia in the league in recent years, and the idea of Jerry Jones showcasing his new stadium in Dallas whilst the home of the Giants and Jets goes without is not something that sits well with those who have funded the plan.

Unfortunately, with no roof in place, the stadium faces an uphill struggle to convince the league that it is capable of hosting a superbowl with no disruption from inclement weather in the area. The problem is not just on the field, but the logistical issues that could arise in the event of a freak snowstorm on the east coast.

One such as hit yesterday, and is expected to hit New York today?

The timing could not be worse, coming as it does at the crucial point where the majority of fans will be arriving in the host city for the weekend. Of course, in my view, some snow should not detract from the bid, but an epic storm of this scale cannot help but place another element of doubt in the owners' minds that their biggest showcase event could become a farce - or even worse, be postponed - if New York hosts the game. Even the smallest amount of chance will likely count heavily against northern stadiums, so unfortunately, I don't envisage any situation where the league allows a cold weather city to host the game outdoors in the near future.

Not unless there's an awful lot of money changing hands somewhere...

Bush faces the career crossroads on Sunday

Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday will be the biggest sporting event in New Orleans history, but for one player, it will also define his career path, and possibly his legacy in the city.

The Saints have a decision to make at some point this offseason. Do they pay Reggie Bush, their number two overall pick in 2006 a whopping $8m salary next season, do they ask him to rework his contract, or do they cash in and trade him to a willing suitor in his former college coach, Pete Carroll? The good news for the Saints is that the decision rests more in what Bush does on Sunday than on his previous body of work.

Make no mistake about it, if Reggie Bush contributes in a meaningful way this Sunday, he will be back in the bayou next year. The Saints are a franchise rooted very much at the centre of their community, and it is difficult to see them parting ways with Bush if he is seen as a hero by the fans. If the Saints win, the party will last a long time, but when it is over, those tough business decisions may seem a little easier with the uncapped year ahead and fans idolising a player who helped bring the biggest prize of all to New Orleans.

Of course, in such a situation, the Saints would inevitably attempt to restructure the rookie contract Bush signed, but the big problem may be that Bush would hold all of the leverage, and by playing chicken with the team, he would win that battle.

If, on the other hand, Bush is anonymous in a Saints loss, or even has a bad game and the team wins, the boot is well and truly on the other foot. Is he a bust? Not quite. he's unconventional for his position and draft slot, but he has contributed in his own fashion over the last few years. There's no doubt that he shows flashes of brilliance and changes games occasionally with a burst of speed, but until the divisional playoffs, Bush had shown little sign of being able to run between the tackles or carry much of a load from the backfield.

The truth is he just doesn't fit the mould, and rather like Josh Cribbs, that makes his contribution very difficult to evaluate. Fans may love Cribbs as a return man, but he wants to be paid as a wide receiver. Similarly, Bush is great catching swing passes and screens out of the backfield, or running back punts, but he was drafted as a running back second overall. You don't pay that type of player $8m unless he is guaranteed to contribute in more conventional terms over the course of your season. The harsh reality of business in the NFL is that you can get paid better as an average player who contributes no big plays but plays a traditional role in an offence, than a dynamic player who's value varies from team to team.

The general consensus is that at some point Carroll will look to upgrade the running back position in Seattle, and that New Orleans may be his first port of call if he believes he can swing a trade for the guy he coached at USC. If not Carroll though, who will take Bush? There will be suitors, but how many of them will pay him the $8m? That is why Sunday matters so much. It will either strengthen or weaken the market that he will use as leverage this season. Play well, and Bush can stay in New Orleans and bask in the adulation for a few more years on money that the fans will be happy to see him take. Play badly and he could be looking at a trade to whoever is desperate enough to risk big money on a player who has shown he can't carry the load. Those teams don't tend to be among the perennial contenders...

Reggie Bush enters the biggest game of his career on Sunday - in every sense.

Pre-free agency team needs

If there's one thing that annoys me in life, it's mock drafts and the frenzy around them. I don't know if Ndamukong Suh will go to St. Louis no.1 overall, nobody does - even the Rams themselves. For now, let's just get a state of play for the 'top' three teams in the draft. These needs will change in the next few months as players are cut and free agents are signed, but they are still handy when evaluating which direction teams are likely to go both in free agency and the draft.

St. Louis Rams.

1: Defensive Tackle
2: Quarterback
3: Tight End
4: Guard
5: Cornerback

The Rams have pretty obvious needs. The interior linemen on both sides of the ball are average and need replacing this offseason if the team is to have any chance of winning next year. There are players with potential in both of those lines, but the weak links inside are hurting this team week in week out. Tight End is a perennial position of need, and I fully expect the Rams to be aggressive either in free agency or the draft at this position, especially as Randy McMichael - an average player at best - will likely not be re-signed.

Quarterback is more complicated. The top two consensus players in the draft would be Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, but if they aren't sold enough on either to give them the big money at number one overall, maybe they'll take a chance on a project QB such as Tony Pike, who could well be ready to play at some point in 2010 should Marc Bulger either not return or play poorly.

If they don't address it through the draft, the QB free agency class is thin, with nobody the team could build a team around for more than a year or two. Perhaps Chad Pennington combined with a younger player in the draft may be the option that they settle for, or there is the intriguing option of trading for a player who has starting experience but may be available. Michael Vick is one of the few who are young enough to build a team around, though we all know that he comes with baggage. Apart from that the restricted players such as Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell and Kellen Clemens are all too patchy in their bodies of work to spend the necessary draft picks to prise them away from the tenders placed on them by their current teams.

Detroit Lions

1: Offensive Tackle
2: Defensive Tackle
3: Guard
4: Cornerback
5: Defensive End

The Lions need an offensive line desperately, and finding a guy to protect Matthew Stafford would be a sound investment. They also lack an interior rusher, which is a common theme for many of the teams at the top of this year's draft. I would class the need to partner a premier left tackle with your franchise QB as slightly higher than the need to find a big body on defence, but realistically both need to be addressed very soon. I don't see the Lions going for a veteran OT when they still have Jeff Backus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the restricted linemen that are currently slated to hit free agency.

Jahri Evans of the Saints is the standout guy who deserves to get paid this year as far as the guards go, and their are also good options at tackle in Donald Penn (Tampa), Jared Gaither (Baltimore) and Marcus McNeill (San Diego) who may be worth the compensation package that is needed to sign them as RFA's. All three have age on their side and experience in the league.

If I were to make that particular decision, I'd probably head down the route of getting an RFA in at tackle, and taking a Defensive lineman with the second overall pick. One of the crucial factors could be that many of the UFA DT's available this year are either better fits in a 3-4 scheme or they're likely to be franchise tagged by their current teams. The price for getting a player away from such a tag is too much for the Lions, who may well need every draft pick they've got as they try to rebuild from Matt Millen's era.

The secondary in Detroit deserves a quick mention too. They have been consistently one of the worst overall units in the last five years (see also: Kansas City receivers, Bears QB's) and they absolutely need an overhaul immediately. They are shambolic against the pass, and no amount of protection for Matt Stafford will stop teams scoring almost at will against this team. Louis Delmas was a start, but bringing in ageing or average veterans such as Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry and Will James has simply compounded the problem. Eric Berry could solve their Strong Safety woes alongside Delmas, but I have to say that it's hard to put that need above the need for linemen.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1: Defensive Tackle
2: Wide Receiver
3: Defensive End
4: Offensive Tackle
5: Cornerback

The Bucs are not the worst team in the league by some stretch. A lot of their problems can be traced down to poor coaching and a lack of stability over the last few years. With Josh Freeman now pretty much entrenched as the starter and future of the team, look for better play without much addition next season. They lack true dominance on the defensive line, which as we all know was a hallmark of the Super Bowl winning team of 2002. They have never quite replaced Warren Sapp, Anthony McFarland, or Simeon Rice, so look for them to address either DT or DE with the number 3 pick overall. The draft is deep at those positions, and it would make more sense than trading for an established player with little to prove.

As mentioned previously, Donald Penn is an RFA, as is Jeremy Trueblood, so OT could become a position of huge need should the team lose both players. Of course, this is unlikely, but the team could still opt to address the position at some point this offseason and let one of those players leave if the right deal comes along.

The greatest position of need on offence is clearly at wide receiver, where Antonio Bryant spent much of the year injured after receiving the franchise tag in '09 and will likely leave in free agency. The roster looks like a WR graveyard, as Mark Bradley, Michael Clayton, Bryant and Maurice Stovall all attempt to prove themselves worthy of a big contract despite being first day picks at the start of their NFL careers. I think the Bucs could look to get a new player in to build chemistry with Freeman, though it should be noted that TE Kellen Winslow is as good a receiving TE as you will find in the game, so perhaps the team will attempt to retain Bryant if they don't like the very thin receivers in the draft and free agency.

Breaking down Superbowl XLIV

Well I've batted at .500 since Wild Card weekend, but I most certainly can't do that this week, as there's only one game - and it's the one that matters most. New Orleans and Indianapolis travel to Miami for Superbowl XLIV. Let's take a look at some key factors affecting the game this week.

The Quarterbacks

Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.

Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.

Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.

You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.

Offensive weapons

Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.

I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.

For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.

The Defences

In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.

Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.

I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?

My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.

If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.

Prediction

I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.

My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.

Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.

Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.

Tebow's draft stock takes a hit at Senior Bowl

Shortly after I posted an article breaking down the QB class of 2010 a few weeks back now, Florida QB Tim Tebow announced his participation in the Senior Bowl.

To say that Tebow's decision was a surprise is perhaps a stretch. He had previously shown no indication that he would take part, whilst commentators (including myself) were against the idea on the basis that it could highlight his weaknesses, rather than show off the skills that have already been displayed over 40 starts with the Gators. On the other hand, he has shown a ready desire to improve, and as he mentioned during an NFL Network interview on Tuesday, he just loves the idea of competing. In many ways, it was almost inevitable that as the consensus grew that he would decline to take part, he would go against that grain.

Unfortunately for Tebow, his decision has produced mixed results. Whilst his desire and competitive nature are not in question, his mechanics, footwork, and decision making will certainly be under even more scrutiny at Florida's pro-day in march after a poor performance under center in Mobile. Perhaps worst of all, sleeper prospects Tony Pike (Cincinnati) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) and Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) all performed better than Tebow over the course of the week, meaning that he now has far greater competition at the position than was expected. I'll summarise the emergence of those three QB's at the end of this post, but first, more on the man we will spend more time discussing in the next few months than any other.

Tebow's most obvious problem in drills this week was clearly his elongated, low-slung arm position when throwing the ball. There is not a team in the NFL that would consider him anything other than a liability with the football right now, something that he is aware of and that he made a conscious effort to rectify and improve over the week. The strides weren't great, but the willingness to change will have helped his stock slightly. During the game itself however, Tebow reverted back to his more comfortable style of throwing and that has to be another concern about a guy who needs to show that he is a quick learner to succeed at the next level.

A lot of people are incensed that a guy considered to be one of, if not the single greatest college players of all time is tabbed as a third rounder by some analysts. The best way of summarising why they are wrong is probably to watch Tebow's performance against the upper echelon of college talent that he faced over this week. The sad fact is that his athleticism is slightly exaggerated to the extent where people consider him to be a 'dual threat', but as we can see simply by watching his rushing plays last night, the talent against him when he reaches the next level will not allow him to rush with the success he achieved in college.

Tebow's footwork and overall discomfort in a pro-style offence were big red-flags to me. I particularly don't like his habit of turning his back to the play, and a factor that has rarely been discussed is that as a left hander, his 'best' lineman (ie: his left offensive tackle) will not be protecting his blind side, meaning that turning his back on defences could be even more of a problem in the NFL. There have been plenty of successful NFL lefties (Steve Young, Michael Vick, Boomer Esaison) but none of these players had the other problems that Tebow is facing as they prepared for the draft.

Saturday night may well have cemented to me that Tebow cannot be considered a first round pick by anyone who does not have an ulterior motive for seeing him drafted that highly. I add that caveat simply because there are a few franchises in Jacksonville, Buffalo and Oakland who could well buy into the 'cult of Tebow' and select him based on his popularity, rather than his footballing ability. All three are desperate for a 'face' of their franchise, and I would think that they would be among the first teams to consider him at some stage of the draft.

The problems during the game were there for everyone to see, and as I mentioned earlier, Pike, LeFevour and Robinson all made big strides (though of course not as long as Tebow's...) throughout the week. Pike is widely considered to be the most likely player to rise in mock drafts in the run up to the draft, so whilst his performance in the game itself was perhaps nothing to write home about, his overall impression over the week was that he can certainly make the transition to a pro-style offence a lot quicker than some other prospects. LeFevour (ranked joint 5th with Pike on Mike Mayock's draft board) looked good too, and made big strides by posting solid numbers on Saturday. His arm strength is better than advertised, and with a mistake-free performance he has likely improved his stock more than Zac Robinson, who despite his decent outing during the game, perhaps lacks the arm strength and accuracy needed to genuinely be considered as a mid-round pick.

With all of this in mind, how has this affected how I see the QB class of 2010? Well, it's important to remember that the two juniors who arguably could be first round picks, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen, didn't lose anything this week, so I think their status as the top two prospects is relatively assured entering the combine.

So entering February the QB class stands as follows:

1 Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
2 Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
3 Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
4 Tim Tebow (Florida)
5 Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6 Colt McCoy (Texas)

Of note in recent weeks is Bradford's rise, with it now looking fairly likely that a team in the top 10 will take a shot at him. Clausen's stock in turn must rise on the basis that if Bradford is gone, then other teams looking at QB's will perhaps consider him. Personally I consider him a second round talent, but as I have pointed out numerous times: If you're convinced that a guy can be your franchise QB, there is no such thing as a reach. Similarly though, I maintain that if you are not high on a guy, the worst thing you can do is saddle your franchise with a highly paid young player who will likely prevent you drafting another QB for a number of years. Ironically, I would consider Clausen's former ND team mate Brady Quinn to be an excellent example of a team drafting a player who they were never entirely sold on.

Colt McCoy is higher on Mike Mayock's board than Tim Tebow, which I find intriguing because I generally tend to think along the same lines as him as far as the transition from college to the pros at most positions. Mayock watches a lot of film, but most importantly, he pays a lot of attention to the pro game too, which is something that perhaps explains why some other experts are wildly off with their mock drafts. McCoy for me doesn't possess the intangibles and the accuracy to be a franchise QB in the NFL, and it seems more likely that he will go to a team as a backup and have a Colt Brennan-esque life of never quite being considered for the top gig.

My final thoughts go back to Tim Tebow. Sure some scouts are still curious about 'slash' players, but an NFL QB is built from the head downwards. You can be a great runner, but unless you can throw the ball, manage the game, lead your team, you will not make your way to the very top. Tim Tebow is not even a great runner. He's a good guy, with an excellent work ethic and the chance to one day play in some capacity in the NFL. This week has reaffirmed my position though, that a team selecting him should have a guy who they trust for the next two years minimum before they can rely on Tebow.

To put the concept of athleticism at the QB position into perspective, I'll give you the five of the best QB's of the 00's: Manning, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees. If you were building your ideal QB from these hall of fame calibre players, tell me which guy would you take the running skills from?

Exactly.

Saints clinch NFC championship

And for the first time since 1993, there are two number one seeds in the Superbowl. An enthralling game that both teams tried their best to lose ended with Garrett Hartley's kick in OT. There are plenty of reasons for the Vikings essentially throwing the game away, some of which are unlucky, but in many ways, you may consider that any team that fumbles the ball as much as they did tonight can't have too many complaints about officiating.

There will be a huge inquest into the loss, but in the end, it's hard not to like the Saints. They're a great story for a city and a team that have had their fair share of lows in recent history. It's going to be a huge task for them to take on the Colts and win, but it would be a man with a stone cold heart that didn't acknowledge that if any team apart from their own had to win the big one, it might as well be New Orleans.

Jets fans get a harsh lesson from Peyton

So the Indianapolis Colts have defeated the Jets, barring an improbable comeback. This week I've been engaged in debate about my prediction of 30 points for the Colts against what has been an excellent Jets defence over the course of this season.

Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.

Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.

One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.

I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.

The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.

Superbowl prediction: Minnesota vs Indianapolis

Last week I went 4/4 on the divisional playoff games and, typically, didn't bother putting my money where my mouth was. That's the law of gambling right there: If you have a hunch and don't put money on it, it will definitely come off.

This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:

NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans

Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.

The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.

Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.

Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28

AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?

This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.

Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.

This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.

An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.

The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.

New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30

Ryan's zero coach of the year votes a mystery

Earlier last week I spoke to a friend whilst inebriated beyond reasonable comprehension. Despite my ramblings about the NFL being hilariously 'out there' (How about a college coach for the Seahawks? Broncos the most likely team to play the 49ers at Wembley?) I did hit upon one subject that I think was worth dwelling on further - If the Jets win two postseason games, how about Rex Ryan for coach of the year?

The fact that Ryan got zero votes staggers me. The Jets were frankly not in great shape when he took over, and he has instilled an air of confidence that we simply have not seen from the Jets in recent years. Despite this, Ryan came away from this year's voting with the square root of... something impolite. I'm no Jets fan (as you will see tomorrow) but Ryan deserves a hell of a lot of credit for his approach to a franchise that could well have stagnated after the Favre fiasco.

To put it another way: He has achieved more with Mark Sanchez than Mike Smith did in his first year as coach of Atlanta with then-rookie Matt Ryan. If that warrants zero votes, then something isn't right in the process.

Phil Simms drops the F-Bomb on live TV

Oh Dear Phil!




I maintain, it is still better than Joe Theisman asking 'Coach Gibbs' if he should wipe his ass every 8 minutes. Yes Joe, you should, because otherwise you're going to walk around with a half pound of crap in your pants as well as your mouth.

NFL draft 2010 - The Quarterbacks

The NFL draft is soon going to move into focus. Even now, people are speculating that the Redskins may take Jimmy Clausen as their next franchise QB. Tim Tebow remains almost unclassifiable, despite his record with Florida. Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, who Tebow beat to the Heisman in 2007, are the other big name prospects entering the draft this year. I've been discussing this with friends for some time, so here's my take on the quarterbacks in the NFL draft 2010.

First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.

The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.

Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.

Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.

McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.

Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.

The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.

Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.

Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.

That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.

There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.

The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.

Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.

There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.

If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:

Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.

Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.

Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.

Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.

Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.

Broncos the most likely team to play 49ers at Wembley

Well, it's good news for San Francisco fans in britain - the team looks well set to play in one of the Wembley games this year. Who will be their opponent? Well since Philadelphia are on the schedule, they are less likely than Dallas to go to Wembley on the basis of their lack of a Jerry Jones-style egocentric character, so my money is firmly on Denver.

New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Denver
Oakland
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
Philadelphia

As New Orleans and Tampa have already played in Europe, and the Raiders are a rival team. the only logical choices are the Eagles and Broncos. Of course, this is assuming the 49ers are the home team, as I believe they will be...

The Offensive Line NFL dictionary

Here are the unofficial additions to the NFL dictionary 2009. If you have any suggestions, you can send them on twitter

JaMarcus (Jah-mar-cuss)
To expend more energy by not trying, than you would by simply being competent at a great job.

"He's spent the last 3 hours JaMarcussing around rather than helping us moisturise these damn playboy bunnies - Be a dear and hold still could you?"

Cribbs (Kribs)
Army slang for a long range missile capable of destroying your much better equipped opponents, and which therefore must be used in every way but the manner intended.

"See, we were going to use the Cribbs to win our next war, but we decided that if we used it as ballast in a submarine, then sold it to Iran, we could buy more of these here zeppelins!"

Polian (Pole-ee-ann)
To refuse an attempt at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in favour of trying to accomplish something you have already done once.

"He only needed to win one more hand for a shot at $1m, but he Polianed it and went to play bingo again"

Welkered (Well-ker-d)
To vindicate a Polian.

"Turns out he had a pair of twos, he'd have been Welkered if he carried on. Still, looks like he's doing ok in the bingo..."

McDaniels (Mac-dan-ee-ells)
High pitched screech that eventually wears down all in earshot.

"Protestors have complained that the new runway will leave many local residents unable to sleep because of intolerable McDaniels emitting from aircraft taking off"

Zorn (Zorn)
To become disinterested in one's grisly demise.

"I think after we cut off his toes he just kind of Zorned out"

Cutler (Cut-ler)
Talented employee of organisation who is given poor tools to work with, but is expected to perform better than the previous incumbent.

"He might have been good in the kitchen, but lets see how he manages if we cut his arms off! I bet he's a Cutler, you can see it in his chin"

Favre (Far-v-re)
To cuckold your boss in public.

"You wouldn't think he could still Favre like that at his age. I don't think she's complaining though. Hey Brad, isn't that your wif... oh. Why are you sobbing?"

Houshing (Hoosh-ing)
The act of talking up your ability whilst simultaneously proving yourself incorrect.

"He reckons he's going to kick our ass at pool, but I think he's just houshing - look, he's just racked them up on the foosball table..."

Offensive Tackle (Off-en-sive Tack-el)
Speciality of the Oakland Raiders

"And that's now 4 offensive tackles for Zach Miller, all coming off JaMarcus Russell interceptions..."

Texans secure a winning season at last

Anyone who knows me will be aware of my deep-rooted love for the Chicago Bears, which began way back in what Alan Partridge's friend Bono would describe as 'the nineteen-eightieees'. My favourite player was actually Kevin Butler for many many years, which is slightly embarrassing, as it was only when I got to the age of 12 that I realised that having a kicker as your hero was not something you admitted.

Fast-forward 15 years and I'm still a Bears nut (as many a baffled girlfriend will testify, usually at 5am on a tuesday morning), but I have had a soft spot for the NFL's newest franchise, the Houston Texans, since their induction into the league. After seven seasons, it has finally become acceptable to admit this further bizarre affiliation to my inglorious NFL resumé.

The Houston Texans have a winning season.

The most important part of the whole equation will not be decided until the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, and Denver Broncos finish their games (the Texans best hopes are probably that the Broncos and Jets lose, although I have a strange feeling about Oakland today, maybe they can get an upset), but the likelihood is that the team will keep coach Gary Kubiak around for 2010, which will be good for continuity. It isn't good for the media commentators who aren't fans of his, but Kubiak has quietly overseen some solid drafts in Houston, and deserves more credit than he is getting.

Actually, on that point, the Texans have done pretty well in recent years even before Kubiak. The Mario Williams pick is a feather in the cap of former G.M. Charlie Casserly, and with starters DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, Zac Diles, Steve Slaton, Jacoby Jones all coming in recent years, the team has done well. This year LB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin have also shown they will be starters in the league.

Perhaps the only disappointments have been in the linemen and in the secondary. The team lacks a bruising DT to compliment Amobi Akoye, and some of the OT's drafted have looked slightly out of their depth at times. Patience may be the best virtue, but it will again be a draft where the team invests in defensive backs.

For now though, the Texans will be hoping they can cap the team's first winning season with their first trip to the postseason.

Wide-Right

Wide-Right is being renamed as 'The Offensive Line'.

As you may or may not be aware, the domain was essentially car-jacked from under my nose (well, it was 'virtually' car-jacked, but you get the idea) and is currently being used as an advert for penis enlargement, or possibly for unspecified 'meds'. Either way, it's impractical for me to continue with the wide-right banner and website. so the only alternative is a complete re-brand, which fits quite well with my ideas for the future.

I'm going to develop this site for the next six months or so, and get a good groundwork in place for September, when I intend to commit a lot of time to it. I'm also headed to the U.S in June for four months, which will be an experience if nothing else.

So keep an eye on things. I'm hooking this up to twitter, where you can follow me, and I'll be trying to make the whole thing as easy to read as possible. Any suggestions, just drop me a tweet at www.twitter.com/ShaunLowrie

Shaun