If there's one thing that annoys me in life, it's mock drafts and the frenzy around them. I don't know if Ndamukong Suh will go to St. Louis no.1 overall, nobody does - even the Rams themselves. For now, let's just get a state of play for the 'top' three teams in the draft. These needs will change in the next few months as players are cut and free agents are signed, but they are still handy when evaluating which direction teams are likely to go both in free agency and the draft.
St. Louis Rams.
1: Defensive Tackle
2: Quarterback
3: Tight End
4: Guard
5: Cornerback
The Rams have pretty obvious needs. The interior linemen on both sides of the ball are average and need replacing this offseason if the team is to have any chance of winning next year. There are players with potential in both of those lines, but the weak links inside are hurting this team week in week out. Tight End is a perennial position of need, and I fully expect the Rams to be aggressive either in free agency or the draft at this position, especially as Randy McMichael - an average player at best - will likely not be re-signed.
Quarterback is more complicated. The top two consensus players in the draft would be Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, but if they aren't sold enough on either to give them the big money at number one overall, maybe they'll take a chance on a project QB such as Tony Pike, who could well be ready to play at some point in 2010 should Marc Bulger either not return or play poorly.
If they don't address it through the draft, the QB free agency class is thin, with nobody the team could build a team around for more than a year or two. Perhaps Chad Pennington combined with a younger player in the draft may be the option that they settle for, or there is the intriguing option of trading for a player who has starting experience but may be available. Michael Vick is one of the few who are young enough to build a team around, though we all know that he comes with baggage. Apart from that the restricted players such as Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell and Kellen Clemens are all too patchy in their bodies of work to spend the necessary draft picks to prise them away from the tenders placed on them by their current teams.
Detroit Lions
1: Offensive Tackle
2: Defensive Tackle
3: Guard
4: Cornerback
5: Defensive End
The Lions need an offensive line desperately, and finding a guy to protect Matthew Stafford would be a sound investment. They also lack an interior rusher, which is a common theme for many of the teams at the top of this year's draft. I would class the need to partner a premier left tackle with your franchise QB as slightly higher than the need to find a big body on defence, but realistically both need to be addressed very soon. I don't see the Lions going for a veteran OT when they still have Jeff Backus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the restricted linemen that are currently slated to hit free agency.
Jahri Evans of the Saints is the standout guy who deserves to get paid this year as far as the guards go, and their are also good options at tackle in Donald Penn (Tampa), Jared Gaither (Baltimore) and Marcus McNeill (San Diego) who may be worth the compensation package that is needed to sign them as RFA's. All three have age on their side and experience in the league.
If I were to make that particular decision, I'd probably head down the route of getting an RFA in at tackle, and taking a Defensive lineman with the second overall pick. One of the crucial factors could be that many of the UFA DT's available this year are either better fits in a 3-4 scheme or they're likely to be franchise tagged by their current teams. The price for getting a player away from such a tag is too much for the Lions, who may well need every draft pick they've got as they try to rebuild from Matt Millen's era.
The secondary in Detroit deserves a quick mention too. They have been consistently one of the worst overall units in the last five years (see also: Kansas City receivers, Bears QB's) and they absolutely need an overhaul immediately. They are shambolic against the pass, and no amount of protection for Matt Stafford will stop teams scoring almost at will against this team. Louis Delmas was a start, but bringing in ageing or average veterans such as Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry and Will James has simply compounded the problem. Eric Berry could solve their Strong Safety woes alongside Delmas, but I have to say that it's hard to put that need above the need for linemen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1: Defensive Tackle
2: Wide Receiver
3: Defensive End
4: Offensive Tackle
5: Cornerback
The Bucs are not the worst team in the league by some stretch. A lot of their problems can be traced down to poor coaching and a lack of stability over the last few years. With Josh Freeman now pretty much entrenched as the starter and future of the team, look for better play without much addition next season. They lack true dominance on the defensive line, which as we all know was a hallmark of the Super Bowl winning team of 2002. They have never quite replaced Warren Sapp, Anthony McFarland, or Simeon Rice, so look for them to address either DT or DE with the number 3 pick overall. The draft is deep at those positions, and it would make more sense than trading for an established player with little to prove.
As mentioned previously, Donald Penn is an RFA, as is Jeremy Trueblood, so OT could become a position of huge need should the team lose both players. Of course, this is unlikely, but the team could still opt to address the position at some point this offseason and let one of those players leave if the right deal comes along.
The greatest position of need on offence is clearly at wide receiver, where Antonio Bryant spent much of the year injured after receiving the franchise tag in '09 and will likely leave in free agency. The roster looks like a WR graveyard, as Mark Bradley, Michael Clayton, Bryant and Maurice Stovall all attempt to prove themselves worthy of a big contract despite being first day picks at the start of their NFL careers. I think the Bucs could look to get a new player in to build chemistry with Freeman, though it should be noted that TE Kellen Winslow is as good a receiving TE as you will find in the game, so perhaps the team will attempt to retain Bryant if they don't like the very thin receivers in the draft and free agency.
Monday 1 February 2010
Breaking down Superbowl XLIV
Well I've batted at .500 since Wild Card weekend, but I most certainly can't do that this week, as there's only one game - and it's the one that matters most. New Orleans and Indianapolis travel to Miami for Superbowl XLIV. Let's take a look at some key factors affecting the game this week.
The Quarterbacks
Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.
Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.
Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.
You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.
Offensive weapons
Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.
I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.
For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.
The Defences
In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.
Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.
I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?
My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.
If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.
Prediction
I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.
My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.
Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.
Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.
The Quarterbacks
Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.
Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.
Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.
You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.
Offensive weapons
Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.
I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.
For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.
The Defences
In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.
Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.
I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?
My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.
If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.
Prediction
I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.
My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.
Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.
Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.
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