Breaking down Superbowl XLIV

Well I've batted at .500 since Wild Card weekend, but I most certainly can't do that this week, as there's only one game - and it's the one that matters most. New Orleans and Indianapolis travel to Miami for Superbowl XLIV. Let's take a look at some key factors affecting the game this week.

The Quarterbacks

Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.

Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.

Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.

You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.

Offensive weapons

Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.

I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.

For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.

The Defences

In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.

Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.

I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?

My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.

If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.

Prediction

I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.

My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.

Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.

Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.