First of all, Happy thanksgiving. You can expect plenty of fluff pieces on your TV today about how various players think this is a special time of year, and how they'll be spending it with their families. For some reason, this is considered a novelty.
Unfortunately, the Detroit Lions - who traditionally host one of the Thanksgiving matchups - have neglected to show up at all for the 2008 season, which may make their game against Tennessee something of an embarrassment for all concerned. Already, after just two plays, the Lions have managed to cough up the ball.
Things don't really look so good for Seattle either, so their trip to Dallas could well be just as predictable. On the other hand, I like the fact that Wade Phillips has descrbed the game as a 'must win' encounter, which should add some edge to his team. In fact, it would almost be concievable for the 'hawks to come out fighting this week. They've actually played quite well in the last few weeks since QB Matt Hasselbeck returned, so an upset could be on the cards.
Speaking of the Cards... I have no shame. Therefore, I am quite happy to say that the Eagles will likely win tonight in the freezing Pennsylvania climate. The Cards have not travelled well to the East coast, and tonight could be a difficult test. On the other hand, Philly look like a team on the ropes, almost devoid of any confidence in any phase of the game. Tonight is an ideal situation for Donovan McNabb to rebound strongly, but if he doesn't, commentators have already called for Kevin Kolb to replace him for the balance of the season.
My gut feeling? Tennessee, Seattle*, and Philadelphia will celebrate tonight.
*Even if it's just to celebrate the fact they aren't in Seattle.
Thursday 27 November 2008
Sunday 23 November 2008
Donovan McNabb still Eagles starter - for now
Tonight, the headlines will be dominated by the situation around Philadelphia Quarterback Donovan McNabb, who was benched in favour of Kevin Kolb by coach Andy Reid at halftime in their matchup with Baltimore. It's only fair that I've given Reid a chance to respond to the media before we take a look at McNabb's future in Philadelphia and ask these three crucial questions:
So is McNabb to blame for the Eagles' problems?
Well... he's not NOT to blame, if that makes sense. McNabb's play has been patchy at best this season, and he is on course for his worst statistical year since at least 2003. On the other hand, the team as a whole has underperformed, with the most noticeable problem being the lack of a running game to help McNabb on offence. Brian Westbrook is being shut down on the ground, but unlike previous years, Andy Reid seems reluctant to force the run on defences. Instead, a deranged habit is forming of calling passing plays at poor times, such as this week's game against Baltimore, when Philly decided to throw on 3rd and 1 during the first half, resulting in McNabb being intercepted while trying to throw a deep strike.
Of course, that's another problem - McNabb's decision making. Despite the poor play call, McNabb probably made a rash call going for the long ball to DeSean Jackson, when Westbrook was open for a quick pass that would have netted the first and prolonged the drive. Of course, it's easy to say that with hindsight, but how often do we laud a QB or coordinator for having the balls to go long at those moments, only to castigate them when it all goes wrong?
I asked for Philly fans to give their opinion yesterday, and the majority seem to think that the system itself needs changing, rather than this simply being about how well one player is doing. Despite promising to get Westbrook more involved last week, the coaching staff must take some of the blame for his - and in turn, the team's - lack of production.
How does McNabb's benching affect the team in 2008?
Reid named McNabb starter for the game against Arizona on Thursday night, but would he have done so if the team had a full week to prepare? As we pointed out on Saturday, a short week leaves very little time to prepare both mentally and physically for your next opponent. Kevin Kolb's performance was equally unimpressive, and it would have been an odd decision to essentially give up on the Eagles' 2008 season in week 12 - which is what going with Kolb would signify to many people both inside and outside the organisation.
But being benched could have repercussions for McNabb. Will he come back stronger and prove Reid wrong on Thursday? That must be the hope, but he is now on the shortest of leashes, knowing that his coach has broken one of the barriers that stood between McNabb and his eventual successor. Now, if McNabb struggles for a half, we can expect to see Kolb again, purely because Reid needs to associate himself with the new guy if he wants to continue coaching in Philly. Remember that Reid and McNabb's legacies are intertwined, and since 1999, this has been the case. If McNabb leaves in the off season, it may also seem like a perfect time to cut Reid loose for the Eagles and firmly establish a 'new era'.
The one thing that struck me about the benching on Sunday was this: The team was down three points. If they'd been down 0-17, perhaps you could have understood the 'all or nothing' approach that Reid took, but down 3? What a huge statement to make, because whatever we all say about this ridiculous situation, it comes down to this:
Andy Reid didn't trust Donovan McNabb to overturn a 3 point deficit
There, I even bolded it for you. Did he think Kolb had a better shot? Probably not, but my theory is this: Reid knows that benching McNabb and shoehorning Kolb under center may be his only chance to stay on for a few more years, and what better chance to win than in a low scoring game? I can guarantee that this morning's headlines would have looked a hell of a lot different if Kolb had managed to throw adequately and the Eagles had churned out a scrappy victory.
One place where McNabb does have support is in the locker room. He is a personable, intelligent guy who has many friends both in Philadelphia and beyond. Despite what Terrell Owens may think, many players sympathise with McNabb, who has rarely been given a supporting cast to help him in his quest to bring a Superbowl to the city of brotherly love. If you want to know why he's so highly thought of, just watch McNabb show encouragement to Kolb and his teammates despite his own public humiliation yesterday.
So will McNabb still be in Philadelphia next year?
No.
To summarise, the last few years have seen countless off season trade rumours fly around, but McNabb was always the unquestioned starter for this team, and there was not a particularly good option to replace him on the roster until Kolb was drafted. Even now, the second year player has shown little that suggests he is a legitamate threat to McNabb in a training camp competition, so it's likely that the Eagles will opt to dump the veteran and give Kolb the chance to assert himself as an unquestioned starter next season.
As I've already pointed out, this also likely means Reid will follow him out of the door, unless Kolb makes enough progress in the next few weeks to suggest that ditching the head coach would be detrimental to his progression as a player.
In conclusion, both McNabb and Reid will likely be out by the time the 2009 season begins. You have to feel sorry for McNabb, who has been vilified by people within Philadelphia for years now, and as I mentioned, sorely deprived of help on offence. As someone with no bias either for or against the Eagles, I'd probably point to the one season that McNabb had a genuine playmaker (Owens) on his team, and ask why statistically, it was far and away the best season of his career, even with no running back getting over 1000yds.
So is McNabb to blame for the Eagles' problems?
Well... he's not NOT to blame, if that makes sense. McNabb's play has been patchy at best this season, and he is on course for his worst statistical year since at least 2003. On the other hand, the team as a whole has underperformed, with the most noticeable problem being the lack of a running game to help McNabb on offence. Brian Westbrook is being shut down on the ground, but unlike previous years, Andy Reid seems reluctant to force the run on defences. Instead, a deranged habit is forming of calling passing plays at poor times, such as this week's game against Baltimore, when Philly decided to throw on 3rd and 1 during the first half, resulting in McNabb being intercepted while trying to throw a deep strike.
Of course, that's another problem - McNabb's decision making. Despite the poor play call, McNabb probably made a rash call going for the long ball to DeSean Jackson, when Westbrook was open for a quick pass that would have netted the first and prolonged the drive. Of course, it's easy to say that with hindsight, but how often do we laud a QB or coordinator for having the balls to go long at those moments, only to castigate them when it all goes wrong?
I asked for Philly fans to give their opinion yesterday, and the majority seem to think that the system itself needs changing, rather than this simply being about how well one player is doing. Despite promising to get Westbrook more involved last week, the coaching staff must take some of the blame for his - and in turn, the team's - lack of production.
How does McNabb's benching affect the team in 2008?
Reid named McNabb starter for the game against Arizona on Thursday night, but would he have done so if the team had a full week to prepare? As we pointed out on Saturday, a short week leaves very little time to prepare both mentally and physically for your next opponent. Kevin Kolb's performance was equally unimpressive, and it would have been an odd decision to essentially give up on the Eagles' 2008 season in week 12 - which is what going with Kolb would signify to many people both inside and outside the organisation.
But being benched could have repercussions for McNabb. Will he come back stronger and prove Reid wrong on Thursday? That must be the hope, but he is now on the shortest of leashes, knowing that his coach has broken one of the barriers that stood between McNabb and his eventual successor. Now, if McNabb struggles for a half, we can expect to see Kolb again, purely because Reid needs to associate himself with the new guy if he wants to continue coaching in Philly. Remember that Reid and McNabb's legacies are intertwined, and since 1999, this has been the case. If McNabb leaves in the off season, it may also seem like a perfect time to cut Reid loose for the Eagles and firmly establish a 'new era'.
The one thing that struck me about the benching on Sunday was this: The team was down three points. If they'd been down 0-17, perhaps you could have understood the 'all or nothing' approach that Reid took, but down 3? What a huge statement to make, because whatever we all say about this ridiculous situation, it comes down to this:
Andy Reid didn't trust Donovan McNabb to overturn a 3 point deficit
There, I even bolded it for you. Did he think Kolb had a better shot? Probably not, but my theory is this: Reid knows that benching McNabb and shoehorning Kolb under center may be his only chance to stay on for a few more years, and what better chance to win than in a low scoring game? I can guarantee that this morning's headlines would have looked a hell of a lot different if Kolb had managed to throw adequately and the Eagles had churned out a scrappy victory.
One place where McNabb does have support is in the locker room. He is a personable, intelligent guy who has many friends both in Philadelphia and beyond. Despite what Terrell Owens may think, many players sympathise with McNabb, who has rarely been given a supporting cast to help him in his quest to bring a Superbowl to the city of brotherly love. If you want to know why he's so highly thought of, just watch McNabb show encouragement to Kolb and his teammates despite his own public humiliation yesterday.
So will McNabb still be in Philadelphia next year?
No.
To summarise, the last few years have seen countless off season trade rumours fly around, but McNabb was always the unquestioned starter for this team, and there was not a particularly good option to replace him on the roster until Kolb was drafted. Even now, the second year player has shown little that suggests he is a legitamate threat to McNabb in a training camp competition, so it's likely that the Eagles will opt to dump the veteran and give Kolb the chance to assert himself as an unquestioned starter next season.
As I've already pointed out, this also likely means Reid will follow him out of the door, unless Kolb makes enough progress in the next few weeks to suggest that ditching the head coach would be detrimental to his progression as a player.
In conclusion, both McNabb and Reid will likely be out by the time the 2009 season begins. You have to feel sorry for McNabb, who has been vilified by people within Philadelphia for years now, and as I mentioned, sorely deprived of help on offence. As someone with no bias either for or against the Eagles, I'd probably point to the one season that McNabb had a genuine playmaker (Owens) on his team, and ask why statistically, it was far and away the best season of his career, even with no running back getting over 1000yds.
A big Wide-Right 'Thanks' to the Seattle Seahawks!
Belated congratulations to Seattle last week in managing to throw an INT whilst going for it in the last two minutes of the game against Arizona. The turnover left the scoreline at 26-20, thus meaning that Seattle failed to get within the +3pts spread.
Why is that important? Well, far be it for me to bring personal issues into this site, but I think my faith in the Seahawks has been thrown back into my face somewhat...
So that's around $50,000. But I don't care! Incredibly, I'm going with Seattle against Washington this week for the ultimate act of redemption.
Why is that important? Well, far be it for me to bring personal issues into this site, but I think my faith in the Seahawks has been thrown back into my face somewhat...
So that's around $50,000. But I don't care! Incredibly, I'm going with Seattle against Washington this week for the ultimate act of redemption.
Saturday 22 November 2008
That Thursday feeling
You know what grinds my gears? Thursday night football.
On the face of it, a midweek game is great for fans, providing a fix of pro-football at a time of the week when many of us have complained about the lack of exactly that over the years. How many of us have lamented the monotony of those six days of downtime between Monday Night Football and Sunday afternoon, watching hours of college ball to sate the need to watch ANYBODY play football of any description.
So Thursday Night Football is great right?
Wrong.
First of all, let's get one thing clear - I'm not bothered about the fact I have to stay up until 5am to watch the end of the game. I do it every weekend, so my sleeping pattern is quite condusive to more football on TV. Anyone who tells you otherwise is probably my girlfriend, who doesn't take kindly to my insistence that I must watch games in a male-only surrounding.
Nor do I have a problem with the NFL Network's coverage, which by and large is excellent. The commentary team of Bob Papa and Cris Collinsworth fully warrants primetime exposure. Certainly it compares favourably with the atrocious ESPN Monday Night Football crew of Tarico (mundane), Jaworski (tolerable) and Kornheiser (Unbearable). The pre-game build up can run a little long at 3 hours, which can feel like overkill when you have a game such as the Bengals at Steelers
matchup from this week. On the other hand, it's fairly acceptable for a station that broadcasts non-stop NFL productions to dedicate that kind of time to a game. Finally, the analysis team of Rich Eisen, Marshall Faulk, Steve Mariucci and Deion Sanders works very well, having a great deal more to say, and a lot more chemistry than it's CBS or Fox counterparts.
No, the presentation is fine, and in fact I'd love to see Collinsworth in particular get a shot at the big time with NBC or ESPN. He filled in for John Madden during his 'break' a few weeks ago, so there are signs that indicate he could potentially be the natural successor to Madden when time catches up with the big man.
No, my problem actually lies with the practicalities of football on Thursday night for the teams involved. Thursday's game, despite the scoreline, was poor to watch, in part because of the sheer lack of pressure on both quarterbacks. Admittedly, the Bengals are abysmal in that department anyway, but for the Steelers to get the only sack of the game against a poor offensive line? Similarly, the Broncos @ Browns game from week 10 generated a solitary sack. Good line play? Perhaps, but in the trenches, stamina matters, more than anywhere, and could the short weeks be affecting the defensive line's ability to generate pressure?
Regardless, it's not condusive to good football from a fan's perspective. Many of the games chosen for 'primetime' may be 'intriguing' matchups, but any game can be pitched in that sense if a channel wants to do so. In reality, there was little to offer you on Thursday night, unless you were a Pittsburgh or Cincinatti fan. In that sense, it feels a little forced watching football on Thursdays.
So what about making a concerted effort to push Saturday night football? I would love to see it, because I believe there are planty of fans that watch college football not because they are avid fans of that level of the game, but because there is nothing else on football-wise. Sure there is more competition, but shoehorning a game into a midweek slot that gives players just one practice before a game doesn't seem like it's got teams' best interests at heart. A telling quote came from Chris Cooley earlier in the season, when he said that he sometimes feels the effects of games the following Friday. With that in mind, how can the NFL justify asking players to sacrifice their bodies for the cash cow of it's Network? There is an alternative, and it's called Saturday Night Football. Remember the classic Pats at Giants matchup last year? The game finished 38-35, cementing the team's perfect regular season record, and it scored massively in the ratings too.
A look back through the last three years shows that just one Saturday game has been won by more than a Touchdown. If it's excitement you're after, then you'd be advised to wait for week 16 and the Baltimore at Dallas game - the only NFL matchup on a Saturday this season.
On the face of it, a midweek game is great for fans, providing a fix of pro-football at a time of the week when many of us have complained about the lack of exactly that over the years. How many of us have lamented the monotony of those six days of downtime between Monday Night Football and Sunday afternoon, watching hours of college ball to sate the need to watch ANYBODY play football of any description.
So Thursday Night Football is great right?
Wrong.
First of all, let's get one thing clear - I'm not bothered about the fact I have to stay up until 5am to watch the end of the game. I do it every weekend, so my sleeping pattern is quite condusive to more football on TV. Anyone who tells you otherwise is probably my girlfriend, who doesn't take kindly to my insistence that I must watch games in a male-only surrounding.
Nor do I have a problem with the NFL Network's coverage, which by and large is excellent. The commentary team of Bob Papa and Cris Collinsworth fully warrants primetime exposure. Certainly it compares favourably with the atrocious ESPN Monday Night Football crew of Tarico (mundane), Jaworski (tolerable) and Kornheiser (Unbearable). The pre-game build up can run a little long at 3 hours, which can feel like overkill when you have a game such as the Bengals at Steelers
matchup from this week. On the other hand, it's fairly acceptable for a station that broadcasts non-stop NFL productions to dedicate that kind of time to a game. Finally, the analysis team of Rich Eisen, Marshall Faulk, Steve Mariucci and Deion Sanders works very well, having a great deal more to say, and a lot more chemistry than it's CBS or Fox counterparts.
No, the presentation is fine, and in fact I'd love to see Collinsworth in particular get a shot at the big time with NBC or ESPN. He filled in for John Madden during his 'break' a few weeks ago, so there are signs that indicate he could potentially be the natural successor to Madden when time catches up with the big man.
No, my problem actually lies with the practicalities of football on Thursday night for the teams involved. Thursday's game, despite the scoreline, was poor to watch, in part because of the sheer lack of pressure on both quarterbacks. Admittedly, the Bengals are abysmal in that department anyway, but for the Steelers to get the only sack of the game against a poor offensive line? Similarly, the Broncos @ Browns game from week 10 generated a solitary sack. Good line play? Perhaps, but in the trenches, stamina matters, more than anywhere, and could the short weeks be affecting the defensive line's ability to generate pressure?
Regardless, it's not condusive to good football from a fan's perspective. Many of the games chosen for 'primetime' may be 'intriguing' matchups, but any game can be pitched in that sense if a channel wants to do so. In reality, there was little to offer you on Thursday night, unless you were a Pittsburgh or Cincinatti fan. In that sense, it feels a little forced watching football on Thursdays.
So what about making a concerted effort to push Saturday night football? I would love to see it, because I believe there are planty of fans that watch college football not because they are avid fans of that level of the game, but because there is nothing else on football-wise. Sure there is more competition, but shoehorning a game into a midweek slot that gives players just one practice before a game doesn't seem like it's got teams' best interests at heart. A telling quote came from Chris Cooley earlier in the season, when he said that he sometimes feels the effects of games the following Friday. With that in mind, how can the NFL justify asking players to sacrifice their bodies for the cash cow of it's Network? There is an alternative, and it's called Saturday Night Football. Remember the classic Pats at Giants matchup last year? The game finished 38-35, cementing the team's perfect regular season record, and it scored massively in the ratings too.
A look back through the last three years shows that just one Saturday game has been won by more than a Touchdown. If it's excitement you're after, then you'd be advised to wait for week 16 and the Baltimore at Dallas game - the only NFL matchup on a Saturday this season.
Friday 21 November 2008
Shockey in 'not popular' shocker.
Let's just get one thing straight before I say anything: Jeremy Shockey is a good NFL Tight End - amongst the best, in fact. Widely considered amongst the top five players at his position, he has both the physicality and the mental toughness associated with an elite weapon in the league, as well as a rapport with fans that most players would consider enviable.
Indeed, so highly is he thought of, that he was rated as the toughest player at his position to bring down in the open field by his fellow professionals last month - which is a worthwhile statistic, if only for the memories of those who can still remember when he was effective. Harsh? Perhaps, but it's worth considering that Shockey's 'pro-bowl' performances never quite correlated with his team's success.
Indeed, despite his production and obvious talent, Shockey has always been a focal point for locker room unrest throughout his career. His pouting on the sidelines is reminiscent of T.O at his very worst, and I needn't detail how much better off the Giants were without him last year, because we all saw for ourselves didn't we? Indeed, two such 'playmakers' - in Shockey and Tiki Barber - were pointed to as a case of addition by subtraction. Removing the two most vocal leaders from the huddle allowed Eli Manning to assume his role as a leader after four years being told how to do his job by those around him.
But I digress, this is not an Eli Manning shaped glory hole.
In the last two weeks, Saints QB Drew Brees has publicly berated his Tight End on the sidelines during a game, and coach Sean Payton has apparently 'read Shockey the riot act' Whatever that means. Whether it involved coach actually reading the 1715 Riot act passed because of the Peterloo massacre, I suppose we'll never know, but of this we can be sure: It probably wasn't positive. At least one source has said that Payton put his own ass on the line to get Shockey to the Saints, and his underwhelming play - combined with bitching and sniping at the organisation - has left Shockey with a mountain to climb if he wishes to remain a Saint long term.
As if that wasn't enough, I pointed out at the Wembley game between the Chargers and Saints that Billy Miller is effectively the starting TE these days, and even Mark Campbell looks more reliable than Shockey in the red zone. There's no guarantee that Shockey will get enough playing time to justify his presence on next year's roster.
And if it were me in charge? I'd dump him, and here's why:
Shockey is a liability. Take an interview he did with ESPN the magazine in September, in which he explained that joining the Saints made sense to him because 'alcohol is the social lubricant of their society'. Pardon me? Did a professional football player really allude to his own reliance on alcohol? But wait, as if that wasn't enough:
"This is what I wanted when I decided to get traded. I mean no one even messes with you at all when you sit down to have some lunch and a few beers."
Jeremy Shockey - ESPN the magazine, 22nd September 2008
Incredible isn't it? To Shockey, drinking is a badge of honour. He prides himself on being a blue collar player who voices his opinions and then unwinds in the same way that you or I may do after work. Well guess what? You or I don't get paid millions to keep our bodies in peak physical condition, and we're DEFINITELY not supposed to be having 'liquid lunches' during the working day. Does Shockey have a problem? I'm not an expert, but if 'quality of nightlife' is one of your primary factors in deciding your next place of work, you probably do need to ask yourself that question.
Despite that, there is one more telling quote from Shockey that sums up the man. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt when he said this, because he missed out on a shot at the Superbowl, and some players never get two chances. On the other hand, I'll allow you to judge for yourself:
"See, I've never had an injury like this before in my life. Look at the scars. That's where a really smart teammate of mine fell into my leg."
Jeremy Shockey
While it's easy to sympathise with a guy who missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime by pure bad luck, it's less easy to sympathise with someone who can't bring himself to accept that injuries happen on a football field, and that sometimes, there is nobody to blame for them. Can he accept that? Does it seem like he has? I personally would say no, and it's been a pattern throughout his career. Remember when the Giants lost to Seattle in 2006, when the Giants were 'outcoached' according to Shockey? Even with a team he has spent less than six months with, he has already publicly called out the Saints medical team for 'misdiagnosing' his sports hernia injury.
As usual, Jeremy Shockey was not to blame - and that's all that matters to Jeremy Shockey. He may not win a Superbowl, but what is perhaps scarier, is that he may never realise how he is his own worst enemy, and that sooner or later, he needs to look himself in the eye and accept that the NFL is quick to move on from any player who is detrimental to team ethic - even one as talented as him.
Thursday 13 November 2008
How our breakout players are doing so far.
Back in August, I gave you 10 players I thought could have a big season in 2008.
After 9 games each, let's revisit those predictions, and sift through the good, the bad, and the ugly...
Kevin Walter - WR - Houston Texans
What we said:
How he's doing:
So far so good. Walter leads the Texans in Touchdowns (6) and is on course for a career year, with nearly a thousand yards. Most importantly, he has been a reliable target for Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels, and his emergence as a legitimate threat has given Johnson the freedom to pile up 900yds, which obviously equates to a huge season if he carries on at this level. Either way, Walter will likely be a big part of the Texans offence for the forseeable future.
Ernie Sims - LB - Detroit Lions
What we said:
How he's doing:
Sims has been average so far this year in a D that has struggled mightily against... well against everybody. Hampered by injuries, he has had only three games where he has reached double digits in tackles - something that will disappoint him more than the lack of big plays. The Lions as a whole are in a whole lot of trouble on his side of the ball, which is not his fault particularly, but he hasn't maintained his high level of play from 2006 and 2007.
Cortland Finnegan - CB - Tennessee Titans
What we said:
How he's doing:
Oh yeah, this was right. Watching a bunch of Titans games at the end of last season was enough to show that Finnegan had the skill set to be a playmaker at the top level of the NFL, and with a lack of quality at the position, he has slotted comfortably in with Nnamdi Asomugha and Charles Tillman as the true masters of their art. Players like Champ Bailey, Chris Mcallister, and Ronde Barber will continue to get the plaudits, but the mark of a good DB is generally that you rarely here their name called on a Sunday.
Jerry Porter - WR - Jacksonville Jaguars
What we said:
How he's doing:
Injured for much of the year, Porter has had a poor season, but has shown signs of life in the last two weeks, including catching his first TD against Detroit last week. Is it a sign he's about to become the focal point of the Jags? No, but Matt Jones's upcoming suspension should see Porter get more looks, so there is no reason to believe he will continue his lack of production. I was wrong on Porter, but I still think he has one last sting in the tail end of the season.
Haloti Ngata - DT - Baltimore Ravens
What we said:
How he's doing:
If a good indicator of a DT's effectiveness is the team's run-stopping ability, then Ngata is in the top two DT's in the league. The Ravens rank first against the run and have given up just one TD and one rush over 20yds all season long. Incredible numbers from a team that was considered in decline. Ngata somehow has managed two interceptions this year, which is curious in itself, but consider that Terrell Suggs also has two INT returns for TD's from his spot at Defensive End, and you appreciate exactly how good the individuals on the Baltimore defence are.
Chad Jackson - WR - New England Patriots
What we said:
How he's doing: The man with the best middle name in football (Wolfegang) is currently the 5th receiver on the Broncos official depth chart, and has yet to see any time since being signed at the end of October. He was released from the Patriots the day after I posted the prediction that he would have a breakout season, thus providing my first 'head in hands' moment of the season. The emergence of Eddie Royal is likely to curtail his adventure in the Rockies, but I still believe that he will land on a few rosters before he is done. He's certainly better than some of Oakland's receivers, for example - On the other hand, so am I.
Roddy White - WR - Atlanta Falcons
What we said:
How he's doing: Again, White has justified my faith with a great season so far, racking up 801yds receiving and 6 touchdowns. More to the point, he has developed into the unquestioned number one in Atlanta at a time when they are resurgent. I've mentioned it elsewhere on the site, but Atlanta are a couple of years away from mounting a serious push for the Superbowl. Unlike Oakland, who have hit rock bottom but crucially have made no fundamental changes, Atlanta changed everything from GM to QB, and they are reaping the rewards with players like White finally showing the desire to win.
DeAngelo Williams - RB - Carolina Panthers
What we said:
How he's doing: A strong middle section of the season has seen Williams cement his place as the starter in the Panthers' two-back system, and it remains to be seen how Stewart will fit back into the dynamic now that he is recovered from a hell injury that handed Williams the majority of carries in the last few weeks. I say that purely because Williams has proven he can shoulder a heavy workload, rushing for 100+yds in both games Stewart missed. The schedule has been favourable to Carolina, and Williams will likely break the 1000yd mark for the first time, and at least set a new career best for rushing yards and TD's in a season.
Nate Burleson - WR - Seattle
What we said:
How he's doing: Difficult call. Burleson was placed on injured reserve after just one game this season, therefore he is realistically no better off than last year, however, considering that Burleson had 5 receptions and a TD in that game, and number one wideout Deion Branch has been constantly injured, it's easy to see how Burleson could have taken the next step this year. As it is, we'll call this one our 'mulligan' as far as predictions are concerned.
Eric Weddle - S - San Diego Chargers
How he's doing: A consistent performer all season, Weddle has locked down a starting role, and in fact he and Clinton Hart have developed into one of the more reliable Safety combinations in the league, with Weddle strong against the run, and Hart more of a freelancing playmaker. Weddle has just the one interception, but like many young players, his ball skills will develop as he plays.
After 9 games each, let's revisit those predictions, and sift through the good, the bad, and the ugly...
Kevin Walter - WR - Houston Texans
What we said:
"Even without elite speed, he has enough to get open, though perhaps his best attribute is quite simply his ability to adjust and catch the ball in situations where lesser receivers will give up on the catch. It has endeared him to coach Gary Kubiak, and it should finally mean that the team is not completely reliant on (Andre) Johnson in the passing game."
How he's doing:
So far so good. Walter leads the Texans in Touchdowns (6) and is on course for a career year, with nearly a thousand yards. Most importantly, he has been a reliable target for Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels, and his emergence as a legitimate threat has given Johnson the freedom to pile up 900yds, which obviously equates to a huge season if he carries on at this level. Either way, Walter will likely be a big part of the Texans offence for the forseeable future.
Ernie Sims - LB - Detroit Lions
What we said:
With the kind of motor that keeps him involved in almost every play, Sims
will be guaranteed some big statistics this year, but as we say, statistics
alone will not be the only way that Sims contributes to a defence in sore need
of someone to step up and establish himself as the true leader of the
team.
How he's doing:
Sims has been average so far this year in a D that has struggled mightily against... well against everybody. Hampered by injuries, he has had only three games where he has reached double digits in tackles - something that will disappoint him more than the lack of big plays. The Lions as a whole are in a whole lot of trouble on his side of the ball, which is not his fault particularly, but he hasn't maintained his high level of play from 2006 and 2007.
Cortland Finnegan - CB - Tennessee Titans
What we said:
With the intelligence and physical ability needed to progress to the
next level, Finnegan has a golden opportunity at the age of just 24, to
establish himself in the upper echelon of NFL Defensive Backs.
How he's doing:
Oh yeah, this was right. Watching a bunch of Titans games at the end of last season was enough to show that Finnegan had the skill set to be a playmaker at the top level of the NFL, and with a lack of quality at the position, he has slotted comfortably in with Nnamdi Asomugha and Charles Tillman as the true masters of their art. Players like Champ Bailey, Chris Mcallister, and Ronde Barber will continue to get the plaudits, but the mark of a good DB is generally that you rarely here their name called on a Sunday.
Jerry Porter - WR - Jacksonville Jaguars
What we said:
It would be easy to dismiss Porter's chances of repairing his tarnished image, but the guy is not done in this league just yet. If he can stay healthy, Porter has all of the tools to be resuscitate his career.
How he's doing:
Injured for much of the year, Porter has had a poor season, but has shown signs of life in the last two weeks, including catching his first TD against Detroit last week. Is it a sign he's about to become the focal point of the Jags? No, but Matt Jones's upcoming suspension should see Porter get more looks, so there is no reason to believe he will continue his lack of production. I was wrong on Porter, but I still think he has one last sting in the tail end of the season.
Haloti Ngata - DT - Baltimore Ravens
What we said:
Any successful Defence needs a guy to cause disruption up front, and Ngata should build on a solid 2007 season to become the player that the Ravens need.
How he's doing:
If a good indicator of a DT's effectiveness is the team's run-stopping ability, then Ngata is in the top two DT's in the league. The Ravens rank first against the run and have given up just one TD and one rush over 20yds all season long. Incredible numbers from a team that was considered in decline. Ngata somehow has managed two interceptions this year, which is curious in itself, but consider that Terrell Suggs also has two INT returns for TD's from his spot at Defensive End, and you appreciate exactly how good the individuals on the Baltimore defence are.
Chad Jackson - WR - New England Patriots
What we said:
With the ball in his hands, Jackson can be a star. If he is injured again, his time in New England could be up.
How he's doing: The man with the best middle name in football (Wolfegang) is currently the 5th receiver on the Broncos official depth chart, and has yet to see any time since being signed at the end of October. He was released from the Patriots the day after I posted the prediction that he would have a breakout season, thus providing my first 'head in hands' moment of the season. The emergence of Eddie Royal is likely to curtail his adventure in the Rockies, but I still believe that he will land on a few rosters before he is done. He's certainly better than some of Oakland's receivers, for example - On the other hand, so am I.
Roddy White - WR - Atlanta Falcons
What we said:
With Vick gone, White will thrive. He showed much more promise last year, and this year, we could be about to see the next Manning-Harrison combination in the NFL. Seriously. Matt Ryan has the ability and mentality to bring on the talented receiving corps, and White should be the main beneficiary.
How he's doing: Again, White has justified my faith with a great season so far, racking up 801yds receiving and 6 touchdowns. More to the point, he has developed into the unquestioned number one in Atlanta at a time when they are resurgent. I've mentioned it elsewhere on the site, but Atlanta are a couple of years away from mounting a serious push for the Superbowl. Unlike Oakland, who have hit rock bottom but crucially have made no fundamental changes, Atlanta changed everything from GM to QB, and they are reaping the rewards with players like White finally showing the desire to win.
DeAngelo Williams - RB - Carolina Panthers
What we said:
A big, bruising back who will be the thunder to Williams's lightning, (Jonathan) Stewart should wear down defences much more effectively than Foster ever could, and in turn. we could see more carries and more big plays from Williams
How he's doing: A strong middle section of the season has seen Williams cement his place as the starter in the Panthers' two-back system, and it remains to be seen how Stewart will fit back into the dynamic now that he is recovered from a hell injury that handed Williams the majority of carries in the last few weeks. I say that purely because Williams has proven he can shoulder a heavy workload, rushing for 100+yds in both games Stewart missed. The schedule has been favourable to Carolina, and Williams will likely break the 1000yd mark for the first time, and at least set a new career best for rushing yards and TD's in a season.
Nate Burleson - WR - Seattle
What we said:
With Deion Branch looking unlikely to play early in the season, Burleson is the natural go-to guy for Matt Hasselbeck. If he gets on the board early, this could be the season that Burleson breaks out and becomes the number two in Seattle.
How he's doing: Difficult call. Burleson was placed on injured reserve after just one game this season, therefore he is realistically no better off than last year, however, considering that Burleson had 5 receptions and a TD in that game, and number one wideout Deion Branch has been constantly injured, it's easy to see how Burleson could have taken the next step this year. As it is, we'll call this one our 'mulligan' as far as predictions are concerned.
Eric Weddle - S - San Diego Chargers
Weddle's athletic ability is rare, and this means that he is able to stay on the field in almost any situation. Not only should Weddle be the starter at Strong Safety by the end of the season, but expect him to become one of the leaders on the NFL's most talented roster.
How he's doing: A consistent performer all season, Weddle has locked down a starting role, and in fact he and Clinton Hart have developed into one of the more reliable Safety combinations in the league, with Weddle strong against the run, and Hart more of a freelancing playmaker. Weddle has just the one interception, but like many young players, his ball skills will develop as he plays.
Tuesday 11 November 2008
Lessons learned from weeks 1-10
With nine games gone, we're hitting the home stretch now, and it's about this time of year that you can start to make an informed decision on a team. Yes, they are who we thought they were.
Here's a division-by-division look at the NFL after the final bye week:
NFC North
Hands up who saw the Bears having a shot at the playoffs this year? 'Big Mike' in Chicago can put his hand down now, because he's probably the sole person who genuinely thought that this team had a hope in hell. To say that it's a foregone conclusion would be wrong, especially with the Vikings overcoming their coaching of late, but the fact remains that this is a weak division, that realistically anyone except the Lions could win. On the subject of the Lions, digest this: The team has given up more than 400yds on average every single game. That's a full 160yds more than the league leading Steelers. It will not be a quick fix in Detroit.
NFC East
When you talk about overrated divisions... no, we jest. There are four good teams in the East, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys spring a playoff run out of nowhere now, starting this Sunday night in Washington. The weakness of the North and West divisions means that the wild card spots will almost certainly come from NFC East and/or South teams, so the good news for Philly, Dallas, and Washington is that second place will almost certainly guarantee a playoff spot. On the subject of Philly, they can never be counted out, but it's hard to see them overcoming leapfrogging the Cowboys and Redskins unless they can pull off some impressive divisional wins.
NFC South
AFC North
Pittsburgh eh? I mentioned them as Superbowl contenders in a previous post, but the last few weeks have seen a question arise that could severely hinder that aspiration - a question revolving around the durability of the team's two most important players. If Willie Parker and Ben Roethlisberger are as limited as they have been recently - and reports suggest Parker could be out for the year - then the team will struggle to make good on their initial promise. The Ravens have been a pleasant surprise after a poor 2007. Rookie Joe Flacco has shown immense poise, and the team has found form at a time when a lot of teams struggle. In Ohio, neither the Browns or Bengals will trouble the playoffs this year, though it has at least paved the way for the Brady Quinn era to begin in Cleveland. Cincinnati's season is written off completely, and it would be a huge surprise if QB Carson Palmer plays again in 2008. Interestingly, Cedric Benson could easily have done enough to justify the team keeping him on as their starting running back next season.
Interestingly, the AFC North is split between a Defensive ethos that pervades with the two winning teams, and an Offensive bias that has been unable to make up for the shortcomings in the other phases of the game for the Bengals and Browns.
AFC East
Thursday night's game between the Jets and Patriots in Foxboro could well decide the divisional title. The Jets have shown some brilliant offence this season, though as usual they have struggled to turn that into momentum for a serious playoff push. Even now, it's hard to have confidence in any team in the East, despite none of the teams having a losing record. The Dolphins appear to have the best shot of toppling the Patriots, with easy matchups outside of the divisional games. A couple of upset victories in New York and Buffalo could see them push the Patriots all the way. The Jets face some difficult matchups in Seattle, Tennessee, and against Denver. They will need to weather those storms to seriously challenge for the division. The Bills are pretty much out after a decline in Trent Edwards' form and some critical losses. If they get on a roll, there's no telling what could happen, but right now their momentum is gone and the team is in serious need of a confidence boost against the Browns on MNF before the Chiefs head to town. If those two games go awry, it could be the final nail in the Bills' 2008 coffin.
AFC South
It would be remiss of me to gloss over my comments about the Titans earlier in the season. I still maintain that the team will struggle when the going gets tough, but in truth, they've shown resilience so far, and have extricated themselves from a couple of holes. Right now, if I was a Titans fan, I'd ask myself if the team can overcome two difficult games at the end of the season (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) and carry their momentum into the playoffs. If the answer is yes, they'll be hard to beat. If not, I can't honestly see the team figuring out the higher powered offences they will face in the playoffs. Indy, Houston and Jacksonville have all flattered to deceive at various points. Matt Schaub's health has scuppered the Texans - despite a three game winning streak when he was fit - The Jags have no offensive line and seemingly little consistency. The Colts look streaky too, but as always, you never rule Peyton Manning out of any contest. They currently sit one game outside the wild card spots, but anything can happen in the next few weeks.
AFC West
The two west divisions are arguably the worst in football, and whoever wins the playoff race between the Broncos and Chargers should count themselves fortunate that they have four games against the Raiders and Chiefs this year to keep them in touch with each other and give them a shot at the Superbowl. Seriously, don't be surprised if one of these teams 'pulls a Giants' and goes all the way, such is the fickle nature of the NFL postseason. That's not a random prediction though, it's based on two teams that will always score points, and just need to develop defensive resilience to make the leap. The Raiders are in a heap of trouble both on and off the field, whereas the Chiefs have shown some spirit of late, and realistically Herm Edwards will have at least one more year in charge to try and get the team on track for the future. Both teams will be part of a look at the worst four teams in football that will be up later in the week.
Here's a division-by-division look at the NFL after the final bye week:
NFC North
Hands up who saw the Bears having a shot at the playoffs this year? 'Big Mike' in Chicago can put his hand down now, because he's probably the sole person who genuinely thought that this team had a hope in hell. To say that it's a foregone conclusion would be wrong, especially with the Vikings overcoming their coaching of late, but the fact remains that this is a weak division, that realistically anyone except the Lions could win. On the subject of the Lions, digest this: The team has given up more than 400yds on average every single game. That's a full 160yds more than the league leading Steelers. It will not be a quick fix in Detroit.
NFC East
When you talk about overrated divisions... no, we jest. There are four good teams in the East, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys spring a playoff run out of nowhere now, starting this Sunday night in Washington. The weakness of the North and West divisions means that the wild card spots will almost certainly come from NFC East and/or South teams, so the good news for Philly, Dallas, and Washington is that second place will almost certainly guarantee a playoff spot. On the subject of Philly, they can never be counted out, but it's hard to see them overcoming leapfrogging the Cowboys and Redskins unless they can pull off some impressive divisional wins.
NFC South
A surprise division? Perhaps. A surprise team? Definitely. The Falcons are a major story now, and anyone who doesn't believe in them had better take a good look at how good this team has been in recent weeks, and in particular Matt Ryan, the rookie QB who is a shoe in for rookie of the year. I'll be doing a full and proper discussion of Ryan's ability in due course, but for now suffice to say that this division is wide open. Don't be surprised to see the Panthers make the playoffs - this is a good team, and until last weekend, Steve Smith had three straight 100yd games receiving. They have good Running Backs and a solid D. They could even shock a few teams and reach the Superbowl. That isn't even a joke. The Saints are the odd team out, as the only team with a losing record. Their week 12 matchup against Tampa Bay will likely see one of the two teams drop out of the hunt for the divisional title.
One thing of note: The NFC South teams have had a slightly easier schedule than most, facing the NFC North, and the AFC West as part of the schedule rotation. It's no surprise to see them making the most of their opportunities to win, and it's one of the reasons why this division could send three teams to the playoffs at the expense of the NFC East's 'big four'.
NFC West
Oh dear. What can you say about a division who's lone bright spot is the Arizona Cardinals? For all their passing virtuoso, the Cards are not a team that oozes confidence, and they will need more from their home crowd if they are to progress far into the playoffs. As for the other teams (who between them have only managed to equal the Cards' six wins), Seattle's season has been mulliganed on the basis that their entire WR corps was seemingly infected with the plague, the 49ers have appointed a man who shows his bare ass to his players in an attempt to motivate them (insert punchline here... actually that's a bad choice of phrase), and the Rams? They showed some fight after they sacked Scott Linehan, but realistically the team should thrust itself into rebuilding mode as soon as possible. It sounds radical, but trading Holt and Bulger would clear cap room and bring in valuable draft picks with which to rebuild the offensive line and the defence.
AFC North
Pittsburgh eh? I mentioned them as Superbowl contenders in a previous post, but the last few weeks have seen a question arise that could severely hinder that aspiration - a question revolving around the durability of the team's two most important players. If Willie Parker and Ben Roethlisberger are as limited as they have been recently - and reports suggest Parker could be out for the year - then the team will struggle to make good on their initial promise. The Ravens have been a pleasant surprise after a poor 2007. Rookie Joe Flacco has shown immense poise, and the team has found form at a time when a lot of teams struggle. In Ohio, neither the Browns or Bengals will trouble the playoffs this year, though it has at least paved the way for the Brady Quinn era to begin in Cleveland. Cincinnati's season is written off completely, and it would be a huge surprise if QB Carson Palmer plays again in 2008. Interestingly, Cedric Benson could easily have done enough to justify the team keeping him on as their starting running back next season.
Interestingly, the AFC North is split between a Defensive ethos that pervades with the two winning teams, and an Offensive bias that has been unable to make up for the shortcomings in the other phases of the game for the Bengals and Browns.
AFC East
Thursday night's game between the Jets and Patriots in Foxboro could well decide the divisional title. The Jets have shown some brilliant offence this season, though as usual they have struggled to turn that into momentum for a serious playoff push. Even now, it's hard to have confidence in any team in the East, despite none of the teams having a losing record. The Dolphins appear to have the best shot of toppling the Patriots, with easy matchups outside of the divisional games. A couple of upset victories in New York and Buffalo could see them push the Patriots all the way. The Jets face some difficult matchups in Seattle, Tennessee, and against Denver. They will need to weather those storms to seriously challenge for the division. The Bills are pretty much out after a decline in Trent Edwards' form and some critical losses. If they get on a roll, there's no telling what could happen, but right now their momentum is gone and the team is in serious need of a confidence boost against the Browns on MNF before the Chiefs head to town. If those two games go awry, it could be the final nail in the Bills' 2008 coffin.
AFC South
It would be remiss of me to gloss over my comments about the Titans earlier in the season. I still maintain that the team will struggle when the going gets tough, but in truth, they've shown resilience so far, and have extricated themselves from a couple of holes. Right now, if I was a Titans fan, I'd ask myself if the team can overcome two difficult games at the end of the season (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) and carry their momentum into the playoffs. If the answer is yes, they'll be hard to beat. If not, I can't honestly see the team figuring out the higher powered offences they will face in the playoffs. Indy, Houston and Jacksonville have all flattered to deceive at various points. Matt Schaub's health has scuppered the Texans - despite a three game winning streak when he was fit - The Jags have no offensive line and seemingly little consistency. The Colts look streaky too, but as always, you never rule Peyton Manning out of any contest. They currently sit one game outside the wild card spots, but anything can happen in the next few weeks.
AFC West
The two west divisions are arguably the worst in football, and whoever wins the playoff race between the Broncos and Chargers should count themselves fortunate that they have four games against the Raiders and Chiefs this year to keep them in touch with each other and give them a shot at the Superbowl. Seriously, don't be surprised if one of these teams 'pulls a Giants' and goes all the way, such is the fickle nature of the NFL postseason. That's not a random prediction though, it's based on two teams that will always score points, and just need to develop defensive resilience to make the leap. The Raiders are in a heap of trouble both on and off the field, whereas the Chiefs have shown some spirit of late, and realistically Herm Edwards will have at least one more year in charge to try and get the team on track for the future. Both teams will be part of a look at the worst four teams in football that will be up later in the week.
Why the 49ers should give Alex Smith another shot in 2009
Anyone who had the (mis)fortune to catch the MNF thriller between the 49ers and the Cardinals in Arizona last night, should be in no doubt that if San Francisco is genuinely going to become a better team, they need a new Quarterback. Mike Singletary can show the team his bare ass all he likes - hell, he can turn round for an encore - but the team that he envisages the 49ers becoming will not work with any of the current signal callers on the active roster.
Singletary believes in a run-first offence that manages the ball and relies on it's defence to give them good field position. Of course, Defence is not the biggest worry right now for the niners, who are 22nd in the league in total yards against. If you think 22nd isn't good, ask yourself this: How many times have the Offence gone three-and-out this year? Enough times that the team should by rights have given up a mammoth amount of yards.
Unfortunately, the team cannot exist on a diet of J.T. O'Sullivan's fumbles, or Shaun Hill's laughably weak arm. Both have shown that their major deficiencies are not something that will easily be overcome, and that's why I believe there's a better than evens chance that Alex Smith, the no.1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, could be back with the 49ers next season.
First of all, the major obstacle: Smith's contract. He's due almost $10m, a figure that the team will balk at paying for a player who at best can expect a competition for the starting job next spring. On the other hand, if we assume that Smith can be brought back at a lower rate - perhaps under a restructured deal - it's highly likely that new coach Mike Singletary would opt to at least see what he has before making any snap decisions to bring in a veteran free agent, for example Cleveland's Derek Anderson.
If the team releases Smith, then attempts to sign him back at a more palatable salary for 2009, it's highly likely that at least one team would give Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting role. The Vikings, the Bucs, and perhaps the Lions could be interested in acquiring Smith in an attempt to see exactly how much of Smith's decline was his own fault.
And that leads me to my final point: It really isn't his fault at all.
The knock on Smith is that he doesn't have the mental strength to play in the NFL - but the guy has played under as many offensive coordinators as he has played years in the league, and he had the traumatic rookie season, during which he struggled mightily and threw just one touchdown. These two factors would affect plenty of Quarterbacks straight out of college, but that is no reason to give up on them completely. His fall has mainly been intertwined with that of head coach Mike Nolan, who realised midway through Smith's third year - where he suffered a shoulder injury that has only now been dealt with properly - that to save his job, he would need to win more games than he could afford to let Alex Smith lose for his own development.
Looking back to Smith's sophomore season under OC Norv Turner, there were plenty of signs that he was maturing and developing into an NFL calibre QB. His sack ratio was halved, and he threw 16 TD's and 16 INTs. He also threw for nearly 3000yds in a team that was not exactly overloaded with game winning receivers. All of this should really have counted for more than it did when Nolan effectively threw him under the bus after the shoulder injury, accusing Smith of lacking toughness for what transpired to be a potentially career-threatening injury.
So here's the deal: If you want to blame anyone for Alex Smith's woes, blame Mike Nolan. The sycophantic ramblings of Jamie Dukes on NFL Network's Total Access show last week as he eulogised Nolan (the in-studio guest) as a 'great coach' were completely against all evidence to the contrary that we saw in San Francisco. If anything, we saw a man who struggled to get the best out of high draft picks, who made rash comments about a young man learning his trade, and who realistically will next get a job as a Defensive coordinator somewhere around the league.
As for Smith, it would be rash to say he's the next Peyton Manning (More of Matt Ryan later), but he deserves at least one more shot at being a starter in the NFL, and if people read between the stat-lines, they might realise that there is potential still unharvested in the young man out of Utah.
Sunday 9 November 2008
A few changes to Wide-Right
After a hiatus of a few weeks due to 'real life' (because this is an illusion you see) issues, we'll be revamping the site over the next week or so.
The primary consideration is getting a format that we are happy with and that is sustainable every week - especially during the regular season, which has harder deadlines than the offseason. To achieve that goal, I've streamlined the contributions to just myself for now - a big change to normal, I'm sure you'd agree...
In all seriousness, the NFL is the most important thing in my life (sorry honey!), and from now on, we'll be looking to channel that more effectively by virtue of getting the right people contributing the right articles.
We'll have more through next week as we look to put a permanent structure in place. In the meantime, thanyou for your patience.
The primary consideration is getting a format that we are happy with and that is sustainable every week - especially during the regular season, which has harder deadlines than the offseason. To achieve that goal, I've streamlined the contributions to just myself for now - a big change to normal, I'm sure you'd agree...
In all seriousness, the NFL is the most important thing in my life (sorry honey!), and from now on, we'll be looking to channel that more effectively by virtue of getting the right people contributing the right articles.
We'll have more through next week as we look to put a permanent structure in place. In the meantime, thanyou for your patience.
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