Superbowl prediction: Minnesota vs Indianapolis

Last week I went 4/4 on the divisional playoff games and, typically, didn't bother putting my money where my mouth was. That's the law of gambling right there: If you have a hunch and don't put money on it, it will definitely come off.

This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:

NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans

Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.

The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.

Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.

Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28

AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?

This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.

Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.

This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.

An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.

The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.

New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30