The Dick Jauron Debate

So, the Buffalo Bills have failed to break their post-season drought again. Next September they'll enter the season knowing failure will complete a decade of despair for upstate New Yorkers, desperate for some success. Desperate even for a winning season for the first time since 2004, the hot topic in Buffalo is whether Dick Jauron should remain as Head Coach.

Let's make it clear off the bat - Bills fans are a little different to your average fan. They've already got to deal with a mad pre-disposition for supporting the team in the first place, but history and events continue to crap on them time and again. Even in this, the 2008 season, the Bills have lost on Monday Night Football due to a last second kick for the second season in a row, and chucked away a late lead at home to the New York Jets to lose to a fumbled football. A 4-0 start disintegrated with 8 defeats in the next 11 outings, and it looks likely Jauron will record his third 7-9 season in a row. So should he continue as Head Coach, and does he deserve the much-rumoured three-year extension to his current deal?

It's easy to look at statistics and make your mind up. Many a detractor will point out that the Bills sit 25th in overall offense and 20th in total defense, neither unit showing enough to be a credible player in the league. Only three teams have put up fewer sacks than the anaemic Bills pass rush and only four have intercepted fewer balls than a secondary which just a few years ago was one of the outstanding units in the league in takeaways, with many of the personnel remaining.

Sometimes it's not as simple as numbers though. Jauron has landed a young roster, one of the youngest in the NFL. A roster that was tested in 2007 by thirteen season-ending injuries, and yet the Bills ran the playoff chase far closer than they should have. Sports writers across the nation called Jauron's name for Coach of the Year consideration. So what's changed a year later?

For a multitude of reasons, after starting 4-0 the Bills have lost their way. Maybe it's that the teams they beat en route to their best start in a decade and a half are now a combined 15-45. Maybe it was when Trent Edwards came crashing down to Earth in Arizona and missed two weeks with a concussion. It's more than certainly attributable in some manner to poor play-calling and poor execution, but how much can you level at Jauron himself? Does the buck stop with the Head Coach because of the failures of the staff he employs or the players to whom he's been entrusted?

He certainly took the fall for the abominable defeat to the Jets in Week 15, claiming it was his call to run a passing play instead of a run when common sense and logic suggested the hand-off to Marshawn Lynch was the play of choice. And yet, the aftermath of another painful defeat perhaps showed the overwhelming reasons Jauron should stick around.

Lynch, Chris Kelsay, and Josh Reed, amongst others, gave emotional post-game interviews or wore their feelings very much on their sleeves on the sidelines. They couldn't believe they'd lost so cruelly once again, but perhaps they also feared for the fate of a Head Coach they LOVE playing for. Not just like, love. They would run through walls for Jauron, so we're led to believe, and this goes back to the injury riddled 2007 season where the young Bills rallied around the quiet but affable leader, trusting his every word.

The problem is, whilst most players may want to play for their coach, there were some desperately disappointing comments from others when the Bills played their first regular season game outside of New York, in Toronto. Defensive Tackle Marcus Stroud told the media that he would guarantee the Buffalo locker room would prefer playing in warmer climes indoors than the frosty cold of Eric County in December. Guard Langston Walker backed those comments up, which leaves many Bills fans asking exactly what Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News did:

"Darryl Talley, Thurman Thomas and Jim Kelly relished the brutal conditions. What must Marv Levy be thinking? Whatever happened to, “Where would you rather be than right here, right now?” Or, “When it’s too tough for them, it’s just right for us.”"

The mental approach of individuals needs to change. Sure, the Coach can play a part in directing that, but at least Jauron has never looked cold on the sidelines. While several of his key players are content to give up one of the stronger home field advantages in the league for warmer temperatures (even if the decision to play in Toronto was a front office call), things will continue to struggle.

Ralph Wilson wants to see the Bills win before he dies. He turned 90 this year, so he probably doesn't have long left. Ask your average, not-so-well informed Buffalo fan how they'd turn this franchise into a winner, and you'd hear one of two pairings of words - Bill Cowher or Marty Schottenheimer. But Wilson appears loyal to this staff, perhaps wary that another upheaval in a team which has had four Head Coaches in eight years and even more co-ordinators will mean another two to three years of rebuilding to take a shot at the Super Bowl.

Buffalo has the pieces to become a player in the AFC East, which has to be their first step as it's probably the most competitive division in football. They must improve not only in personnel in one or two key positions, but simply in execution on the field. A converted field goal here, a non-fumble there, a semblance of offensive ability in another couple of games against teams they really should be beating and suddenly the 7-8 Bills are 11-4. It was the same story last year and it's the same this time around. Maybe it'll come through experience and learning the hard way.

The Bills are closer than it might appear to making waves in the post-season. Removing Jauron, contract extension or not, would cause more short-term problems than solutions.

Welcome Philip

A big hello to Philip Rolfe, who will be joining me to contribute to the upkeep of the site for 2009. We'll be looking to churn out a couple of articles every week and keep things ticking over nicely over the postseason and in the leadup to the NFL draft next year. As a huge Buffalo Bills fan, Phil was always the obvious choice to write on here, and after reading his musings on another site, he fits in ideally with the wide-right philosophy of 'quality over quantity'

So in future, check the author before you send me threatening emails - you may not even be threatening the right person!

It's time to change the Pro-Bowl voting system

In December, three things are decided: Who will make the playoffs, who will make the Pro-Bowl, and finally, Where players from the Houston Texans will be spending their January vacations.

Last week the Pro-Bowl squads were announced, and - as usual - some consistent performers were neglected, and some big names picked regardless of how well they have performed this season. At the moment, the voting system is structured so that players, coaches, and fans have a third of the voting each. On paper, the system is meant to ensure that players are selected on their performances, rather than reputations, but the introduction in 1995 of fan voting seems to have made the pro-bowl an irrelevant footnote to most seasons.

In an attempt to plug some holes in the sinking pro-bowl ship, the NFL this year sanctioned a baffling change in schedule, bringing the game forward to the week before the Superbowl. It's easy to see the thinking behind such a change, but in my view, it's not addressing the key point of the game, which is that nobody wants to play in it. Not only that, but it is fundamentally flawed, in that any player who goes to the Superbowl is automatically out of the Pro-Bowl. If it's an Indianapolis vs New York Giants Superbowl this year, then half of the pro-bowl rosters will not be heading for Hawaii.

Every year the spectacle is littered with big names that don't show for the actual game. Last year it was Tom Brady, Brett Favre, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Randy Moss, and this year you can expect more 'injuries' that tell you everything you need to know about how important the game itself is to players. The chance to hang out with your peers in Hawaii is a a novelty that wears off after a while, and a lot of veterans opt to spend time with their families at home rather than make the long journey west. The problem is not so much Hawaii itself - though the fact it is not held on the mainland could well contribute to the apathy of the general public - but the fact that the game comes at a point where most players have shut down for the offseason. It's hard to believe for those of us who would give anything to be on the field, but today's NFL players need time to rest as much as the next man, and the prospect of a long trip and a game at the end of it is not as appealing as it sounds to you or I.

So what is the answer?

Well there are two options:

1) Scrap the game altogether and simply choose the rosters, with an awards ceremony to honour those selected.

or

2) Reduce the amount of impact that the public has on voting.

Why would the latter help? Well, right now, the impact of reaching a pro-bowl is diminished by the fan power of mass market teams such as Dallas, New York or New England. All of these teams and a few others are featured regularly on TV to an extent that players from smaller teams are frozen out at the expense of their big name colleagues. How many times did Dallas Safety Roy Williams make the Pro-Bowl, despite being a liability in coverage? Indeed, he was benched this season, but you can guarantee that if he had continued playing to his previous low level, the fans would still have voted for him in droves.

Thus a player being selected to the pro-bowl is no longer the salute from a group of peers, as it previously was, and is more of a popularity contest.

Therefore, my proposal would be to abolish the game altogether. Drastic? Yes. Justified? Even more emphatically, yes.

Players don't enjoy playing in the Pro-Bowl, and fans seemingly don't enjoy it enough to justify it's inclusion on the TV schedules. Perhaps the latter point will not be as much of an issue this year, as it will fill what is essentially a bye week, and it could benefit from the fact that football fever will be at it's highest point in the run up to the Superbowl.

Regardless, it's the players who deserve the recognition, and it is frustrating to see people who have been recognised as standout performers in their field turn down invitations to what should be a celebration of their achievements. Do retired players look back and reminisce over their times in Hawaii? No, the only thing that matters is the number of times they went.

So how about an awards ceremony? Plenty of sports have all-star games, but those sports rarely involve the risk of severe injury that the NFL Pro-Bowl does. The move away from a glorified touch football game would show common sense from the league and give all the players a chance to attend, regardless of injury status. In fact, hold it the week before the Superbowl in the host city. Plenty of big name players actually go to the big game as spectators, so the chance to go to an awards ceremony is not too much of a stretch.

The move would also give the NFL a better platform to name it's best players, rookies and coaches in an official televised ceremony. For those of you thinking about pro-bowl jersey sales, I'd say that first of all, I'm not sure how many they actually sell, and secondly, there is no reason not to give players a pro-bowl jersey, just because there is no game. A ring would perhaps be seen as tacky and worthless, but a pro bowl jersey would still be something for players to keep as a memento of their career.

Unfortunately, the NFL will likely milk the game for all it is worth, but if this year's revamp fails, and the economic climate starts to hurt the league a little more, don't discount the idea of the pro-bowl being one of the first 'cost-cutting measures' that the league puts into place in 2010.

Vikings pair would be better served sitting out now

As the 'diuretic drama' - as it will hopefully never be known as by anyone - rumbles on this week, at least two of the players involved are gambling that the league will not enforce their suspensions at all this season.

Kevin and Pat Williams, the heart of the Minnesota Vikings Defensive line, and two of the most important factors in their team's winning record thus far in 2008, have avoided a four game suspension handed out by the NFL last week as punishment for their part in the 'Starcaps' incident, in which a a number of players have been caught. Unfortunately for them, the injunction is only temporary, meaning that should the league manage to argue their case in front of a federal judge at any point within the next few weeks, the 'Williams Wall' could well be suspended for four games.

Assuming that the league can make such a case, the two stud DT's could well find themselves on the sidelines for the team's first playoff game since 2004 - or longer. Indeed, the longer the case rumbles on, the more the duo risk. If they were to accept the suspensions now, for example, they would miss the remaining four games of the regular season. As it stands, Minnesota holds a 1 game lead over Chicago, with a relatively simple game in Detroit on Sunday that would put them in a very strong position at the top of the NFC North. Of course, they must then face the Cardinals in Arizona, before the Falcons and Giants travel to the Metrodome for the final two games of the season.

It's not an easy finish, but with the team having a lead in the division, they look much more likely to reach the playoffs - even without the two anchors of their D-line. With that in mind, it would make much more sense for them to sit out these games and gamble that the team will manage to stay ahead of Chicago, than it does to make the choice they have opted for. Essentially, the pair could miss any playoff games that the team plays in, and without them, I don't think they'll be able to take the bigger teams in the NFC.

Of course, what we don't know at this point is who is really calling the shots for the two players. Is it the team, or is it their agent Angelo Wright? Owner Zygi Wilf has taken a healthy interest in the legal escapades of his players, something that makes me question how much influence the Vikings have had over their players' decisions. It may sound crazy, but if I was Brad Childress, this is the exact call I would have made. If the team makes the playoffs - regardless of how far they go - it's hard to imagine him being sacked, yet if the team were to lose it's lead in the final stretch, his position could well be called into question by his many vocal critics in the press.

With that in mind, I think Kevin and Pat Williams have been badly advised. The team may not have liked them being suspended, but if the team reaches a Superbowl, and the pair can't play, they will still have exceeded expectations, and the pair will forever have to live with their decision that cost them a chance to play in the what would likely be the biggest game of their careers.

The worst teams in the NFL - and how they can improve in 2009

Yikes.

If you saw Oakland's capitulation to San Diego last night, or Detroit's humiliation against Tennessee on Thanksgiving, or virtually any St. Louis Rams games this season, you'll know that these three represent the lowest forms of existence in the NFL today.

For some teams, the rebuilding process is in full flow. Miami have improved dramatically after a 1-15 season last year, whilst Atlanta have bounced into playoff contention after the turmoil of having their franchise QB sent to prison. Even the Kansas City Chiefs drafted wisely enough to build a young team that doesn't have the pressure of needing to win now.

So here's what the Lions, Raiders and Rams need to get themselves back towards winning ways:


The Lions are a good place to start when you need to write about bad teams, because this team is appalling. There are no real positive aspects to be taken from 2008, except perhaps the acquisition of some high draft choices for WR Roy Williams. The defence is arguably one of the worst to take a field, and the offence couldn't move house, let alone a pile.

I could spell this out using statistics that show how bad the Lions, Raiders and Rams are in certain areas of the field, but there's really no need. They rank amongst the bottom teams in almost every meaningful category, and apart from that, I'd be here all night if I did that. Really, just assume they're in the bottom three unless told otherwise.

One issue that pervades with the trio is that they are unable to execute on 3rd down - on both sides of the ball. Interestingly, the issue is clearly also not with the Running Back in any of the situations. Steven Jackson of the Rams is a premier back, whilst both Kevin Smith and Darren McFadden were selected in round one of the 2008 draft. Whilst Smith has impressed, McFadden has been limited, but I'll go out on a limb and say that neither he or Justin Fargas is the real issue with the Raiders running game.

The Offensive and Defensive lines seem weakest of all the areas on all three teams. It's particularly surprising that St. Louis has allowed this to happen when you consider how much of their prior success during the 'Greatest show on turf' era was based on the solid foundations of OT Orlando Pace and DE's Grant Wistrom, Kevin Carter and their compatriots on either side of the line. They have attempted to address that over the last two drafts, bringing in Defensive Linemen Adam Carricker and Chris Long, but both have been anonymous so far in their NFL careers, and you get the feeling that the longer they play on such a poor team, the more risk that they will be seen as busts as the years go on. Pace is essentially done in St. Louis, and should be cut this year. It seems likely that the Rams would have taken Jake Long in the draft if he had been available in the draft, but it really is critical that they invest heavily in their O-line before Marc Bulger suffers some kind of internal combustion after being sacked for the 16,000th time.

In Detroit and Oakland, a rash of poor draft choices by Matt Millen and Al Davis respectively, has seen both lines ignored largely since the turn of the millennium. Bad experiences with high draft picks seems to have dented their faith in the Offensive line, whilst the D-line is littered with players who have never had to earn their money. Let's take Tommy Kelly for example. Everyone knows that D-linemen play with a hard edge that their position requires, but EVERYONE knows that you don't pay a D-lineman until you expressly have to. Why? Simple: Most players will respond better to the incentive of a bug contract, rather than the knowledge that they have already signed one. With this in mind, why the hell did Al Davis sanction a (then record) $50.5m for a player who was relatively unproven, and coming off knee surgery that ended his 2007 season? Baffling, and indicative of the decisons that seem to have backfired immensely on the Raiders this year. Indeed, it was rumoured recently that Kelly was one of a number of players that Davis was considering cutting, along with DeAngelo Hall (who was actually cut) and Javon Walker, all of whom were signed to big money deals just months prior to the 2008 season.

With the Lions, it is almost a running joke that the team invested so much in skill positions over Millen's era. Indeed, I did a feature on Millen in July that showed just how poor his drafting skills were (as if you needed to be made aware of that) and supporting the 'Millen Out' campaign. Thankfully for all concerned (except Matt presumably), Millen was fired earlier this season, and in turn the Lions secured a first, a third, and a sixth round pick for another of his selections - WR Roy Williams. It is essential that they rebuild the Defensive line, after trading away Shaun Rogers to Cleveland. They have a rash of early draft picks, but that can be a huge financial burden for a team that has been amongst the bottom of this league for a long time. These top 5 contracts aren't cheap, and sooner or later the team might have to win purely to aleviate credit concerns.

So we've established that you could essentially replace the vast majority of the linemen on all three teams with traffic cones, or perhaps a red carpet of some description. Indeed, being inanimate objects, neither would be likely to give away false start penalties. Anyway, enough about linemen, what about the offensive skill positions?

Well, as I said earlier, the Lions have hurled enough first round picks at the problem, and finally something has stuck. Calvin Johnson is essentially the next great NFL Wide Receiver. Seriously. He's that good. Consider that the vast majority of balls thrown his way have been by men fleeing for their lives, and you get an idea of how good he is both on the run and in the air. Indeed, the jump-ball is something of a trademark for Johnson now, and it's easy to see him developing into the next Randy Moss - and in my book, that equals the Hall of Fame.

Smith has also shown that he could well be a wise move at Running Back. At the very least he deserves to play behind a proficient O-line before judgement is passed, and Rudi Johnson may still have some gas left in the tank. At QB, it seems likely that the team will give Dan Orlovsky a second chance next year after some relatively encouraging displays prior to his season ending injury, whilst veteran Jon Kitna is likely done as the team seeks a fresh start. Is it possible they could draft a QB in 2009? In all likelihood no. The draft class is not impressive enough that there is a 'can't miss' prospect at the position, and they have more pressing needs in... well everywhere really.

The Rams too, should stick with Marc Bulger. Actually, my theory is that they will do just that, and that the reason he has been pulled from games recently is simply to protect his long term physical health. We all know that RB Steven Jackson is a great player, but it will be interesting to see him play with a big contract behind him. Remember that Jackson was paid peanuts compared to his on-field contributions, and again, with the carrot of a new contract removed, how will he motivate himself? The team needs to get playoff bound soon for him to rekindle that desire to win.

At Receiver it is time to cash in on Tory Holt whilst he is still a tradeable commodity. Holt doesn't want to be in St. Louis anymore, and after 9 years, he knows that he likely will not win another championship there before his contract expires in 2010. Why not ship him out and look to the future? There is no shame in doing that, and in fact it can sometimes be detrimental to a young team if they feel that they are holding back a veteran player in the Autumn of his career. If they traded him now, they'd likely get a 2nd round pick minimum, perhaps even a first. The Rams won't be winning before his contract expires, so the equation all seems to add up to Holt's exit to a contender.

Finally, in Oakland, it gets messy. JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden should be the faces of this franchise for the next five years minimum. Instead right now, Russell looks like he has never been coached properly, and McFadden has been hobbled all season. Whilst injuries can be overcome, it is worrying to see so little progress from Russell in his sophomore year. Even if you write off 2007, it's not acceptable for a second year player to be averaging less than 150 passing yards each game, and his completion ratio is actually down from his disastrous showing in the last four games of 2007.

Is that Russell's fault? Probably not. We all know he has the ability, but he has been almost cast adrift by a franchise in flux, left to fend for himself as the front office wars with itself and the coaching staff revolves constantly. None of this can be good for a player, and we've seen what that can do to a Quarterback in Detroit, where Joey Harrington was cast as the source of - rather than the victim of - the team's woes.

The first thing the Raiders need to do, before they draft anyone, before they sign a free agent, is to get some stability on the sideline. At the very least, Al Davis should be looking at a coach who can help Russell develop into the player it seemed he was destined to be as he left LSU two seasons ago. I almost feel sorry for him - yes, even with the multi-million dollar contract - having to watch Matt Ryan have such success as a rookie, despite his team being at a low ebb when he took over the reigns. The difference being that Atlanta had hit rock bottom, whereas you do feel that Oakland could well sink even lower whilst Davis remains at the helm.

Unfortunately, Davis will likely not give up the Raiders whist his health prevails, and common decency prevents me from wishing ill upon him. Indeed, Davis is not the kind of guy who we should ever see as a bad thing for the NFL considering his contributions over the years, but sadly, his legacy is tarnished with every losing season the Raiders notch up, and his questionable decision to attack Lane Kiffin publicly (inviting litigation from Kiffin) after he fired him was a sign that perhaps he needs to take a step back. You can guess what bothers him, and that is the same thing that bothers so many of the men who have given their lives to one sole objective in life: Al Davis is afraid that giving up his franchise will be the death of him.

Tragically, there may be no light at the end of the tunnel for the Raiders while Davis refuses to accept that what is in his own best interests is not always in the best interests of his beloved franchise.

Uninspiring Thanksgiving lineup

First of all, Happy thanksgiving. You can expect plenty of fluff pieces on your TV today about how various players think this is a special time of year, and how they'll be spending it with their families. For some reason, this is considered a novelty.

Unfortunately, the Detroit Lions - who traditionally host one of the Thanksgiving matchups - have neglected to show up at all for the 2008 season, which may make their game against Tennessee something of an embarrassment for all concerned. Already, after just two plays, the Lions have managed to cough up the ball.

Things don't really look so good for Seattle either, so their trip to Dallas could well be just as predictable. On the other hand, I like the fact that Wade Phillips has descrbed the game as a 'must win' encounter, which should add some edge to his team. In fact, it would almost be concievable for the 'hawks to come out fighting this week. They've actually played quite well in the last few weeks since QB Matt Hasselbeck returned, so an upset could be on the cards.

Speaking of the Cards... I have no shame. Therefore, I am quite happy to say that the Eagles will likely win tonight in the freezing Pennsylvania climate. The Cards have not travelled well to the East coast, and tonight could be a difficult test. On the other hand, Philly look like a team on the ropes, almost devoid of any confidence in any phase of the game. Tonight is an ideal situation for Donovan McNabb to rebound strongly, but if he doesn't, commentators have already called for Kevin Kolb to replace him for the balance of the season.

My gut feeling? Tennessee, Seattle*, and Philadelphia will celebrate tonight.

*Even if it's just to celebrate the fact they aren't in Seattle.

Donovan McNabb still Eagles starter - for now

Tonight, the headlines will be dominated by the situation around Philadelphia Quarterback Donovan McNabb, who was benched in favour of Kevin Kolb by coach Andy Reid at halftime in their matchup with Baltimore. It's only fair that I've given Reid a chance to respond to the media before we take a look at McNabb's future in Philadelphia and ask these three crucial questions:



So is McNabb to blame for the Eagles' problems?

Well... he's not NOT to blame, if that makes sense. McNabb's play has been patchy at best this season, and he is on course for his worst statistical year since at least 2003. On the other hand, the team as a whole has underperformed, with the most noticeable problem being the lack of a running game to help McNabb on offence. Brian Westbrook is being shut down on the ground, but unlike previous years, Andy Reid seems reluctant to force the run on defences. Instead, a deranged habit is forming of calling passing plays at poor times, such as this week's game against Baltimore, when Philly decided to throw on 3rd and 1 during the first half, resulting in McNabb being intercepted while trying to throw a deep strike.

Of course, that's another problem - McNabb's decision making. Despite the poor play call, McNabb probably made a rash call going for the long ball to DeSean Jackson, when Westbrook was open for a quick pass that would have netted the first and prolonged the drive. Of course, it's easy to say that with hindsight, but how often do we laud a QB or coordinator for having the balls to go long at those moments, only to castigate them when it all goes wrong?

I asked for Philly fans to give their opinion yesterday, and the majority seem to think that the system itself needs changing, rather than this simply being about how well one player is doing. Despite promising to get Westbrook more involved last week, the coaching staff must take some of the blame for his - and in turn, the team's - lack of production.

How does McNabb's benching affect the team in 2008?

Reid named McNabb starter for the game against Arizona on Thursday night, but would he have done so if the team had a full week to prepare? As we pointed out on Saturday, a short week leaves very little time to prepare both mentally and physically for your next opponent. Kevin Kolb's performance was equally unimpressive, and it would have been an odd decision to essentially give up on the Eagles' 2008 season in week 12 - which is what going with Kolb would signify to many people both inside and outside the organisation.

But being benched could have repercussions for McNabb. Will he come back stronger and prove Reid wrong on Thursday? That must be the hope, but he is now on the shortest of leashes, knowing that his coach has broken one of the barriers that stood between McNabb and his eventual successor. Now, if McNabb struggles for a half, we can expect to see Kolb again, purely because Reid needs to associate himself with the new guy if he wants to continue coaching in Philly. Remember that Reid and McNabb's legacies are intertwined, and since 1999, this has been the case. If McNabb leaves in the off season, it may also seem like a perfect time to cut Reid loose for the Eagles and firmly establish a 'new era'.

The one thing that struck me about the benching on Sunday was this: The team was down three points. If they'd been down 0-17, perhaps you could have understood the 'all or nothing' approach that Reid took, but down 3? What a huge statement to make, because whatever we all say about this ridiculous situation, it comes down to this:

Andy Reid didn't trust Donovan McNabb to overturn a 3 point deficit

There, I even bolded it for you. Did he think Kolb had a better shot? Probably not, but my theory is this: Reid knows that benching McNabb and shoehorning Kolb under center may be his only chance to stay on for a few more years, and what better chance to win than in a low scoring game? I can guarantee that this morning's headlines would have looked a hell of a lot different if Kolb had managed to throw adequately and the Eagles had churned out a scrappy victory.

One place where McNabb does have support is in the locker room. He is a personable, intelligent guy who has many friends both in Philadelphia and beyond. Despite what Terrell Owens may think, many players sympathise with McNabb, who has rarely been given a supporting cast to help him in his quest to bring a Superbowl to the city of brotherly love. If you want to know why he's so highly thought of, just watch McNabb show encouragement to Kolb and his teammates despite his own public humiliation yesterday.

So will McNabb still be in Philadelphia next year?

No.

To summarise, the last few years have seen countless off season trade rumours fly around, but McNabb was always the unquestioned starter for this team, and there was not a particularly good option to replace him on the roster until Kolb was drafted. Even now, the second year player has shown little that suggests he is a legitamate threat to McNabb in a training camp competition, so it's likely that the Eagles will opt to dump the veteran and give Kolb the chance to assert himself as an unquestioned starter next season.

As I've already pointed out, this also likely means Reid will follow him out of the door, unless Kolb makes enough progress in the next few weeks to suggest that ditching the head coach would be detrimental to his progression as a player.

In conclusion, both McNabb and Reid will likely be out by the time the 2009 season begins. You have to feel sorry for McNabb, who has been vilified by people within Philadelphia for years now, and as I mentioned, sorely deprived of help on offence. As someone with no bias either for or against the Eagles, I'd probably point to the one season that McNabb had a genuine playmaker (Owens) on his team, and ask why statistically, it was far and away the best season of his career, even with no running back getting over 1000yds.

A big Wide-Right 'Thanks' to the Seattle Seahawks!

Belated congratulations to Seattle last week in managing to throw an INT whilst going for it in the last two minutes of the game against Arizona. The turnover left the scoreline at 26-20, thus meaning that Seattle failed to get within the +3pts spread.

Why is that important? Well, far be it for me to bring personal issues into this site, but I think my faith in the Seahawks has been thrown back into my face somewhat...



So that's around $50,000. But I don't care! Incredibly, I'm going with Seattle against Washington this week for the ultimate act of redemption.

That Thursday feeling

You know what grinds my gears? Thursday night football.

On the face of it, a midweek game is great for fans, providing a fix of pro-football at a time of the week when many of us have complained about the lack of exactly that over the years. How many of us have lamented the monotony of those six days of downtime between Monday Night Football and Sunday afternoon, watching hours of college ball to sate the need to watch ANYBODY play football of any description.

So Thursday Night Football is great right?

Wrong.

First of all, let's get one thing clear - I'm not bothered about the fact I have to stay up until 5am to watch the end of the game. I do it every weekend, so my sleeping pattern is quite condusive to more football on TV. Anyone who tells you otherwise is probably my girlfriend, who doesn't take kindly to my insistence that I must watch games in a male-only surrounding.

Nor do I have a problem with the NFL Network's coverage, which by and large is excellent. The commentary team of Bob Papa and Cris Collinsworth fully warrants primetime exposure. Certainly it compares favourably with the atrocious ESPN Monday Night Football crew of Tarico (mundane), Jaworski (tolerable) and Kornheiser (Unbearable). The pre-game build up can run a little long at 3 hours, which can feel like overkill when you have a game such as the Bengals at Steelers
matchup from this week. On the other hand, it's fairly acceptable for a station that broadcasts non-stop NFL productions to dedicate that kind of time to a game. Finally, the analysis team of Rich Eisen, Marshall Faulk, Steve Mariucci and Deion Sanders works very well, having a great deal more to say, and a lot more chemistry than it's CBS or Fox counterparts.

No, the presentation is fine, and in fact I'd love to see Collinsworth in particular get a shot at the big time with NBC or ESPN. He filled in for John Madden during his 'break' a few weeks ago, so there are signs that indicate he could potentially be the natural successor to Madden when time catches up with the big man.

No, my problem actually lies with the practicalities of football on Thursday night for the teams involved. Thursday's game, despite the scoreline, was poor to watch, in part because of the sheer lack of pressure on both quarterbacks. Admittedly, the Bengals are abysmal in that department anyway, but for the Steelers to get the only sack of the game against a poor offensive line? Similarly, the Broncos @ Browns game from week 10 generated a solitary sack. Good line play? Perhaps, but in the trenches, stamina matters, more than anywhere, and could the short weeks be affecting the defensive line's ability to generate pressure?

Regardless, it's not condusive to good football from a fan's perspective. Many of the games chosen for 'primetime' may be 'intriguing' matchups, but any game can be pitched in that sense if a channel wants to do so. In reality, there was little to offer you on Thursday night, unless you were a Pittsburgh or Cincinatti fan. In that sense, it feels a little forced watching football on Thursdays.

So what about making a concerted effort to push Saturday night football? I would love to see it, because I believe there are planty of fans that watch college football not because they are avid fans of that level of the game, but because there is nothing else on football-wise. Sure there is more competition, but shoehorning a game into a midweek slot that gives players just one practice before a game doesn't seem like it's got teams' best interests at heart. A telling quote came from Chris Cooley earlier in the season, when he said that he sometimes feels the effects of games the following Friday. With that in mind, how can the NFL justify asking players to sacrifice their bodies for the cash cow of it's Network? There is an alternative, and it's called Saturday Night Football. Remember the classic Pats at Giants matchup last year? The game finished 38-35, cementing the team's perfect regular season record, and it scored massively in the ratings too.

A look back through the last three years shows that just one Saturday game has been won by more than a Touchdown. If it's excitement you're after, then you'd be advised to wait for week 16 and the Baltimore at Dallas game - the only NFL matchup on a Saturday this season.

Shockey in 'not popular' shocker.

Let's just get one thing straight before I say anything: Jeremy Shockey is a good NFL Tight End - amongst the best, in fact. Widely considered amongst the top five players at his position, he has both the physicality and the mental toughness associated with an elite weapon in the league, as well as a rapport with fans that most players would consider enviable.

Indeed, so highly is he thought of, that he was rated as the toughest player at his position to bring down in the open field by his fellow professionals last month - which is a worthwhile statistic, if only for the memories of those who can still remember when he was effective. Harsh? Perhaps, but it's worth considering that Shockey's 'pro-bowl' performances never quite correlated with his team's success.

Indeed, despite his production and obvious talent, Shockey has always been a focal point for locker room unrest throughout his career. His pouting on the sidelines is reminiscent of T.O at his very worst, and I needn't detail how much better off the Giants were without him last year, because we all saw for ourselves didn't we? Indeed, two such 'playmakers' - in Shockey and Tiki Barber - were pointed to as a case of addition by subtraction. Removing the two most vocal leaders from the huddle allowed Eli Manning to assume his role as a leader after four years being told how to do his job by those around him.

But I digress, this is not an Eli Manning shaped glory hole.

In the last two weeks, Saints QB Drew Brees has publicly berated his Tight End on the sidelines during a game, and coach Sean Payton has apparently 'read Shockey the riot act' Whatever that means. Whether it involved coach actually reading the 1715 Riot act passed because of the Peterloo massacre, I suppose we'll never know, but of this we can be sure: It probably wasn't positive. At least one source has said that Payton put his own ass on the line to get Shockey to the Saints, and his underwhelming play - combined with bitching and sniping at the organisation - has left Shockey with a mountain to climb if he wishes to remain a Saint long term.

As if that wasn't enough, I pointed out at the Wembley game between the Chargers and Saints that Billy Miller is effectively the starting TE these days, and even Mark Campbell looks more reliable than Shockey in the red zone. There's no guarantee that Shockey will get enough playing time to justify his presence on next year's roster.

And if it were me in charge? I'd dump him, and here's why:

Shockey is a liability. Take an interview he did with ESPN the magazine in September, in which he explained that joining the Saints made sense to him because 'alcohol is the social lubricant of their society'. Pardon me? Did a professional football player really allude to his own reliance on alcohol? But wait, as if that wasn't enough:

"This is what I wanted when I decided to get traded. I mean no one even messes with you at all when you sit down to have some lunch and a few beers."

Jeremy Shockey - ESPN the magazine, 22nd September 2008

Incredible isn't it? To Shockey, drinking is a badge of honour. He prides himself on being a blue collar player who voices his opinions and then unwinds in the same way that you or I may do after work. Well guess what? You or I don't get paid millions to keep our bodies in peak physical condition, and we're DEFINITELY not supposed to be having 'liquid lunches' during the working day. Does Shockey have a problem? I'm not an expert, but if 'quality of nightlife' is one of your primary factors in deciding your next place of work, you probably do need to ask yourself that question.

Despite that, there is one more telling quote from Shockey that sums up the man. I tried to give him the benefit of the doubt when he said this, because he missed out on a shot at the Superbowl, and some players never get two chances. On the other hand, I'll allow you to judge for yourself:

"See, I've never had an injury like this before in my life. Look at the scars. That's where a really smart teammate of mine fell into my leg."

Jeremy Shockey

While it's easy to sympathise with a guy who missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime by pure bad luck, it's less easy to sympathise with someone who can't bring himself to accept that injuries happen on a football field, and that sometimes, there is nobody to blame for them. Can he accept that? Does it seem like he has? I personally would say no, and it's been a pattern throughout his career. Remember when the Giants lost to Seattle in 2006, when the Giants were 'outcoached' according to Shockey? Even with a team he has spent less than six months with, he has already publicly called out the Saints medical team for 'misdiagnosing' his sports hernia injury.

As usual, Jeremy Shockey was not to blame - and that's all that matters to Jeremy Shockey. He may not win a Superbowl, but what is perhaps scarier, is that he may never realise how he is his own worst enemy, and that sooner or later, he needs to look himself in the eye and accept that the NFL is quick to move on from any player who is detrimental to team ethic - even one as talented as him.

How our breakout players are doing so far.

Back in August, I gave you 10 players I thought could have a big season in 2008.

After 9 games each, let's revisit those predictions, and sift through the good, the bad, and the ugly...

Kevin Walter - WR - Houston Texans

What we said:

"Even without elite speed, he has enough to get open, though perhaps his best attribute is quite simply his ability to adjust and catch the ball in situations where lesser receivers will give up on the catch. It has endeared him to coach Gary Kubiak, and it should finally mean that the team is not completely reliant on (Andre) Johnson in the passing game."

How he's doing:

So far so good. Walter leads the Texans in Touchdowns (6) and is on course for a career year, with nearly a thousand yards. Most importantly, he has been a reliable target for Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels, and his emergence as a legitimate threat has given Johnson the freedom to pile up 900yds, which obviously equates to a huge season if he carries on at this level. Either way, Walter will likely be a big part of the Texans offence for the forseeable future.


Ernie Sims - LB - Detroit Lions

What we said:

With the kind of motor that keeps him involved in almost every play, Sims
will be guaranteed some big statistics this year, but as we say, statistics
alone will not be the only way that Sims contributes to a defence in sore need
of someone to step up and establish himself as the true leader of the
team.

How he's doing:

Sims has been average so far this year in a D that has struggled mightily against... well against everybody. Hampered by injuries, he has had only three games where he has reached double digits in tackles - something that will disappoint him more than the lack of big plays. The Lions as a whole are in a whole lot of trouble on his side of the ball, which is not his fault particularly, but he hasn't maintained his high level of play from 2006 and 2007.


Cortland Finnegan - CB - Tennessee Titans

What we said:

With the intelligence and physical ability needed to progress to the
next level, Finnegan has a golden opportunity at the age of just 24, to
establish himself in the upper echelon of NFL Defensive Backs.

How he's doing:
Oh yeah, this was right. Watching a bunch of Titans games at the end of last season was enough to show that Finnegan had the skill set to be a playmaker at the top level of the NFL, and with a lack of quality at the position, he has slotted comfortably in with Nnamdi Asomugha and Charles Tillman as the true masters of their art. Players like Champ Bailey, Chris Mcallister, and Ronde Barber will continue to get the plaudits, but the mark of a good DB is generally that you rarely here their name called on a Sunday.


Jerry Porter - WR - Jacksonville Jaguars

What we said:

It would be easy to dismiss Porter's chances of repairing his tarnished image, but the guy is not done in this league just yet. If he can stay healthy, Porter has all of the tools to be resuscitate his career.

How he's doing:
Injured for much of the year, Porter has had a poor season, but has shown signs of life in the last two weeks, including catching his first TD against Detroit last week. Is it a sign he's about to become the focal point of the Jags? No, but Matt Jones's upcoming suspension should see Porter get more looks, so there is no reason to believe he will continue his lack of production. I was wrong on Porter, but I still think he has one last sting in the tail end of the season.

Haloti Ngata - DT - Baltimore Ravens
What we said:

Any successful Defence needs a guy to cause disruption up front, and Ngata should build on a solid 2007 season to become the player that the Ravens need.

How he's doing:
If a good indicator of a DT's effectiveness is the team's run-stopping ability, then Ngata is in the top two DT's in the league. The Ravens rank first against the run and have given up just one TD and one rush over 20yds all season long. Incredible numbers from a team that was considered in decline. Ngata somehow has managed two interceptions this year, which is curious in itself, but consider that Terrell Suggs also has two INT returns for TD's from his spot at Defensive End, and you appreciate exactly how good the individuals on the Baltimore defence are.

Chad Jackson - WR - New England Patriots
What we said:

With the ball in his hands, Jackson can be a star. If he is injured again, his time in New England could be up.

How he's doing: The man with the best middle name in football (Wolfegang) is currently the 5th receiver on the Broncos official depth chart, and has yet to see any time since being signed at the end of October. He was released from the Patriots the day after I posted the prediction that he would have a breakout season, thus providing my first 'head in hands' moment of the season. The emergence of Eddie Royal is likely to curtail his adventure in the Rockies, but I still believe that he will land on a few rosters before he is done. He's certainly better than some of Oakland's receivers, for example - On the other hand, so am I.


Roddy White - WR - Atlanta Falcons
What we said:

With Vick gone, White will thrive. He showed much more promise last year, and this year, we could be about to see the next Manning-Harrison combination in the NFL. Seriously. Matt Ryan has the ability and mentality to bring on the talented receiving corps, and White should be the main beneficiary.

How he's doing: Again, White has justified my faith with a great season so far, racking up 801yds receiving and 6 touchdowns. More to the point, he has developed into the unquestioned number one in Atlanta at a time when they are resurgent. I've mentioned it elsewhere on the site, but Atlanta are a couple of years away from mounting a serious push for the Superbowl. Unlike Oakland, who have hit rock bottom but crucially have made no fundamental changes, Atlanta changed everything from GM to QB, and they are reaping the rewards with players like White finally showing the desire to win.

DeAngelo Williams - RB - Carolina Panthers
What we said:

A big, bruising back who will be the thunder to Williams's lightning, (Jonathan) Stewart should wear down defences much more effectively than Foster ever could, and in turn. we could see more carries and more big plays from Williams

How he's doing: A strong middle section of the season has seen Williams cement his place as the starter in the Panthers' two-back system, and it remains to be seen how Stewart will fit back into the dynamic now that he is recovered from a hell injury that handed Williams the majority of carries in the last few weeks. I say that purely because Williams has proven he can shoulder a heavy workload, rushing for 100+yds in both games Stewart missed. The schedule has been favourable to Carolina, and Williams will likely break the 1000yd mark for the first time, and at least set a new career best for rushing yards and TD's in a season.

Nate Burleson - WR - Seattle
What we said:

With Deion Branch looking unlikely to play early in the season, Burleson is the natural go-to guy for Matt Hasselbeck. If he gets on the board early, this could be the season that Burleson breaks out and becomes the number two in Seattle.

How he's doing: Difficult call. Burleson was placed on injured reserve after just one game this season, therefore he is realistically no better off than last year, however, considering that Burleson had 5 receptions and a TD in that game, and number one wideout Deion Branch has been constantly injured, it's easy to see how Burleson could have taken the next step this year. As it is, we'll call this one our 'mulligan' as far as predictions are concerned.

Eric Weddle - S - San Diego Chargers

Weddle's athletic ability is rare, and this means that he is able to stay on the field in almost any situation. Not only should Weddle be the starter at Strong Safety by the end of the season, but expect him to become one of the leaders on the NFL's most talented roster.

How he's doing: A consistent performer all season, Weddle has locked down a starting role, and in fact he and Clinton Hart have developed into one of the more reliable Safety combinations in the league, with Weddle strong against the run, and Hart more of a freelancing playmaker. Weddle has just the one interception, but like many young players, his ball skills will develop as he plays.

Lessons learned from weeks 1-10

With nine games gone, we're hitting the home stretch now, and it's about this time of year that you can start to make an informed decision on a team. Yes, they are who we thought they were.

Here's a division-by-division look at the NFL after the final bye week:









NFC North

Hands up who saw the Bears having a shot at the playoffs this year? 'Big Mike' in Chicago can put his hand down now, because he's probably the sole person who genuinely thought that this team had a hope in hell. To say that it's a foregone conclusion would be wrong, especially with the Vikings overcoming their coaching of late, but the fact remains that this is a weak division, that realistically anyone except the Lions could win. On the subject of the Lions, digest this: The team has given up more than 400yds on average every single game. That's a full 160yds more than the league leading Steelers. It will not be a quick fix in Detroit.

NFC East

When you talk about overrated divisions... no, we jest. There are four good teams in the East, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys spring a playoff run out of nowhere now, starting this Sunday night in Washington. The weakness of the North and West divisions means that the wild card spots will almost certainly come from NFC East and/or South teams, so the good news for Philly, Dallas, and Washington is that second place will almost certainly guarantee a playoff spot. On the subject of Philly, they can never be counted out, but it's hard to see them overcoming leapfrogging the Cowboys and Redskins unless they can pull off some impressive divisional wins.

NFC South

A surprise division? Perhaps. A surprise team? Definitely. The Falcons are a major story now, and anyone who doesn't believe in them had better take a good look at how good this team has been in recent weeks, and in particular Matt Ryan, the rookie QB who is a shoe in for rookie of the year. I'll be doing a full and proper discussion of Ryan's ability in due course, but for now suffice to say that this division is wide open. Don't be surprised to see the Panthers make the playoffs - this is a good team, and until last weekend, Steve Smith had three straight 100yd games receiving. They have good Running Backs and a solid D. They could even shock a few teams and reach the Superbowl. That isn't even a joke. The Saints are the odd team out, as the only team with a losing record. Their week 12 matchup against Tampa Bay will likely see one of the two teams drop out of the hunt for the divisional title.

One thing of note: The NFC South teams have had a slightly easier schedule than most, facing the NFC North, and the AFC West as part of the schedule rotation. It's no surprise to see them making the most of their opportunities to win, and it's one of the reasons why this division could send three teams to the playoffs at the expense of the NFC East's 'big four'.

NFC West

Oh dear. What can you say about a division who's lone bright spot is the Arizona Cardinals? For all their passing virtuoso, the Cards are not a team that oozes confidence, and they will need more from their home crowd if they are to progress far into the playoffs. As for the other teams (who between them have only managed to equal the Cards' six wins), Seattle's season has been mulliganed on the basis that their entire WR corps was seemingly infected with the plague, the 49ers have appointed a man who shows his bare ass to his players in an attempt to motivate them (insert punchline here... actually that's a bad choice of phrase), and the Rams? They showed some fight after they sacked Scott Linehan, but realistically the team should thrust itself into rebuilding mode as soon as possible. It sounds radical, but trading Holt and Bulger would clear cap room and bring in valuable draft picks with which to rebuild the offensive line and the defence.

AFC North

Pittsburgh eh? I mentioned them as Superbowl contenders in a previous post, but the last few weeks have seen a question arise that could severely hinder that aspiration - a question revolving around the durability of the team's two most important players. If Willie Parker and Ben Roethlisberger are as limited as they have been recently - and reports suggest Parker could be out for the year - then the team will struggle to make good on their initial promise. The Ravens have been a pleasant surprise after a poor 2007. Rookie Joe Flacco has shown immense poise, and the team has found form at a time when a lot of teams struggle. In Ohio, neither the Browns or Bengals will trouble the playoffs this year, though it has at least paved the way for the Brady Quinn era to begin in Cleveland. Cincinnati's season is written off completely, and it would be a huge surprise if QB Carson Palmer plays again in 2008. Interestingly, Cedric Benson could easily have done enough to justify the team keeping him on as their starting running back next season.

Interestingly, the AFC North is split between a Defensive ethos that pervades with the two winning teams, and an Offensive bias that has been unable to make up for the shortcomings in the other phases of the game for the Bengals and Browns.

AFC East

Thursday night's game between the Jets and Patriots in Foxboro could well decide the divisional title. The Jets have shown some brilliant offence this season, though as usual they have struggled to turn that into momentum for a serious playoff push. Even now, it's hard to have confidence in any team in the East, despite none of the teams having a losing record. The Dolphins appear to have the best shot of toppling the Patriots, with easy matchups outside of the divisional games. A couple of upset victories in New York and Buffalo could see them push the Patriots all the way. The Jets face some difficult matchups in Seattle, Tennessee, and against Denver. They will need to weather those storms to seriously challenge for the division. The Bills are pretty much out after a decline in Trent Edwards' form and some critical losses. If they get on a roll, there's no telling what could happen, but right now their momentum is gone and the team is in serious need of a confidence boost against the Browns on MNF before the Chiefs head to town. If those two games go awry, it could be the final nail in the Bills' 2008 coffin.

AFC South

It would be remiss of me to gloss over my comments about the Titans earlier in the season. I still maintain that the team will struggle when the going gets tough, but in truth, they've shown resilience so far, and have extricated themselves from a couple of holes. Right now, if I was a Titans fan, I'd ask myself if the team can overcome two difficult games at the end of the season (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) and carry their momentum into the playoffs. If the answer is yes, they'll be hard to beat. If not, I can't honestly see the team figuring out the higher powered offences they will face in the playoffs. Indy, Houston and Jacksonville have all flattered to deceive at various points. Matt Schaub's health has scuppered the Texans - despite a three game winning streak when he was fit - The Jags have no offensive line and seemingly little consistency. The Colts look streaky too, but as always, you never rule Peyton Manning out of any contest. They currently sit one game outside the wild card spots, but anything can happen in the next few weeks.

AFC West

The two west divisions are arguably the worst in football, and whoever wins the playoff race between the Broncos and Chargers should count themselves fortunate that they have four games against the Raiders and Chiefs this year to keep them in touch with each other and give them a shot at the Superbowl. Seriously, don't be surprised if one of these teams 'pulls a Giants' and goes all the way, such is the fickle nature of the NFL postseason. That's not a random prediction though, it's based on two teams that will always score points, and just need to develop defensive resilience to make the leap. The Raiders are in a heap of trouble both on and off the field, whereas the Chiefs have shown some spirit of late, and realistically Herm Edwards will have at least one more year in charge to try and get the team on track for the future. Both teams will be part of a look at the worst four teams in football that will be up later in the week.

Why the 49ers should give Alex Smith another shot in 2009

Anyone who had the (mis)fortune to catch the MNF thriller between the 49ers and the Cardinals in Arizona last night, should be in no doubt that if San Francisco is genuinely going to become a better team, they need a new Quarterback. Mike Singletary can show the team his bare ass all he likes - hell, he can turn round for an encore - but the team that he envisages the 49ers becoming will not work with any of the current signal callers on the active roster.

Singletary believes in a run-first offence that manages the ball and relies on it's defence to give them good field position. Of course, Defence is not the biggest worry right now for the niners, who are 22nd in the league in total yards against. If you think 22nd isn't good, ask yourself this: How many times have the Offence gone three-and-out this year? Enough times that the team should by rights have given up a mammoth amount of yards.

Unfortunately, the team cannot exist on a diet of J.T. O'Sullivan's fumbles, or Shaun Hill's laughably weak arm. Both have shown that their major deficiencies are not something that will easily be overcome, and that's why I believe there's a better than evens chance that Alex Smith, the no.1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, could be back with the 49ers next season.

First of all, the major obstacle: Smith's contract. He's due almost $10m, a figure that the team will balk at paying for a player who at best can expect a competition for the starting job next spring. On the other hand, if we assume that Smith can be brought back at a lower rate - perhaps under a restructured deal - it's highly likely that new coach Mike Singletary would opt to at least see what he has before making any snap decisions to bring in a veteran free agent, for example Cleveland's Derek Anderson.

If the team releases Smith, then attempts to sign him back at a more palatable salary for 2009, it's highly likely that at least one team would give Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting role. The Vikings, the Bucs, and perhaps the Lions could be interested in acquiring Smith in an attempt to see exactly how much of Smith's decline was his own fault.

And that leads me to my final point: It really isn't his fault at all.

The knock on Smith is that he doesn't have the mental strength to play in the NFL - but the guy has played under as many offensive coordinators as he has played years in the league, and he had the traumatic rookie season, during which he struggled mightily and threw just one touchdown. These two factors would affect plenty of Quarterbacks straight out of college, but that is no reason to give up on them completely. His fall has mainly been intertwined with that of head coach Mike Nolan, who realised midway through Smith's third year - where he suffered a shoulder injury that has only now been dealt with properly - that to save his job, he would need to win more games than he could afford to let Alex Smith lose for his own development.

Looking back to Smith's sophomore season under OC Norv Turner, there were plenty of signs that he was maturing and developing into an NFL calibre QB. His sack ratio was halved, and he threw 16 TD's and 16 INTs. He also threw for nearly 3000yds in a team that was not exactly overloaded with game winning receivers. All of this should really have counted for more than it did when Nolan effectively threw him under the bus after the shoulder injury, accusing Smith of lacking toughness for what transpired to be a potentially career-threatening injury.

So here's the deal: If you want to blame anyone for Alex Smith's woes, blame Mike Nolan. The sycophantic ramblings of Jamie Dukes on NFL Network's Total Access show last week as he eulogised Nolan (the in-studio guest) as a 'great coach' were completely against all evidence to the contrary that we saw in San Francisco. If anything, we saw a man who struggled to get the best out of high draft picks, who made rash comments about a young man learning his trade, and who realistically will next get a job as a Defensive coordinator somewhere around the league.

As for Smith, it would be rash to say he's the next Peyton Manning (More of Matt Ryan later), but he deserves at least one more shot at being a starter in the NFL, and if people read between the stat-lines, they might realise that there is potential still unharvested in the young man out of Utah.

A few changes to Wide-Right

After a hiatus of a few weeks due to 'real life' (because this is an illusion you see) issues, we'll be revamping the site over the next week or so.

The primary consideration is getting a format that we are happy with and that is sustainable every week - especially during the regular season, which has harder deadlines than the offseason. To achieve that goal, I've streamlined the contributions to just myself for now - a big change to normal, I'm sure you'd agree...


In all seriousness, the NFL is the most important thing in my life (sorry honey!), and from now on, we'll be looking to channel that more effectively by virtue of getting the right people contributing the right articles.

We'll have more through next week as we look to put a permanent structure in place. In the meantime, thanyou for your patience.

Week Six Power Rankings and Predictions

All change!

After last week, we sat down and decided that after nearly a third of the season, it is time to re-evaluate each team's chances. That means teams such as the Giants, the Titans, and the Redskins are worthy of their places in the top ten, and right now all three look comfortably on course for the playoffs.

At the bottom, the Texans are clearly a better team than their position suggests, but the fact is at 0-4 and with no bye week, it's hard to see them mounting a playoff run in a tough division. Similarly, the Eagles are falling out of contention in the East, and the Seahawks - although not out of it by any means - will need some luck to overhaul the Cards.

1) Pittsburgh Steelers - When the season started, we tipped the Steelers as dark horses. While there are more surprising teams at the top of their respective divisions, none was expected to fall harder than the Steelers. With a bye week upcoming, they have cemented themselves as the most consistent team in the league, and are one of the few teams who we'd stake the house on making the playoffs.

This week: bye

2) Dallas Cowboys - A gritty win against the Bengals, but it could be said that the Cowboys gave Cinci every opportunity to shock them, and the final score flattered to deceive. In a tough division, they will need to carry on their good (regular season...) form against the Giants to maintain this position at their expense.

This week: @ Arizona - Dallas win

3) Indianapolis Colts - People will say 'but the Titans are 5-0!', and they're right. Those people can certainly read numbers. What we feel is this: The Colts have an opportunity to finish in the playoffs, and this week will be looking to get within two games of Tennessee during their bye week. Put simply, if the Colts get into the playoffs, they have a better opportunity of winning the Superbowl.

This week: vs Baltimore - Indianapolis win

4) New York Giants - Warrant their place near the top after a convincing victory over Seattle. We still think they've had an easy schedule, and a lot will rest on their divisional matchups, but when it comes to beating the teams that are put in front of them, the Giants have proved themselves more than capable. An interesting banana skin this week in Cleveland, but realistically, the Giants have every chance of going deep into the playoffs again.

This week: @ Cleveland - NY Giants win

5) New England Patriots - The Pats are flying under the radar somewhat, but a win this week would see them draw level with Buffalo due to the latter's bye week. The blip against Miami has really given the Pats a great opportunity to keep their low profile and still maintain their divisional dominance. How will they fare in the post-season? Difficult call.

This week: @ San Diego - New England win

6) Tennessee Titans - The Titans are now in the luxurious position of having a record that will likely get them through to the playoffs with games to spare. On the other hand, the rival Colts are not out of the picture, and it's important that they take advantage of their easy game next week (@ KC) to keep the momentum going into the teams' Monday Night Football battle the following week. If one game decides a division, it is that one.

This week: bye

7) San Diego Chargers - We now enter as phase of the power rankings dominated by teams that have talented rosters, but are doing their best to squander their shot at the playoffs. It is only outrageous talent that keeps the Chargers in our conscious, but every game they slip behind the Broncos could be critical, as no team is guaranteed a wild card in the AFC, no matter how weak their division.

This week: vs New England - New England win

8) Washington Redskins - We have to admit, the Redskins are not what we would consider a strong team. Their Defence has huge holes that will be exploited as the season goes on. On the other hand, they've beaten two divisional rivals, and that in itself means they have a great shot at second place in the NFC East. We just have a little gut feeling this weekend that the Rams may have more impetus and energy, and could catch the 'skins cold.

This week: vs St. Louis - St. Louis win

9) Denver Broncos - The Broncos are a patchy team, and certainly not a lock to reach the post-season, but they have managed to get some crucial victories, and their position at the head of the AFC west is not a fluke. We'll admit that we had the Broncos wrong this year. They've managed to outpunch most of their opponents, even if they have taken some huge blows themselves. We're not sure where this boxing analogy is going, suffice to say that their aggressive style will likely yield some poor results down the line.

This week: vs Jacksonville - Jacksonville win

10) Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers must be frustrated. It's hard to knock him for what has been a solid start to his reign as Packers QB. At the current rate, you'd imagine that it is simply a matter of time before he is rewarded with his second long term deal with the team. Unfortunately, the team has contrived to lose some crucial games, and the worry has to be that their schedule will not get any easier (The NFC North teams play the strong AFC and NFC South teams as part of their schedules this year), and the team has perhaps put themselves behind Chicago as the best team in the division. A lot will come down to this week, where they have a golden opportunity to restore some confidence in Seattle.

This week: @ Seattle - Green Bay win

11) Carolina Panthers - One team has set themselves apart in the highly competitive NFC South, and their overall play means that the Panthers deserve more credit than they have received this year. The big problem is that the Saints - arguably the strongest team in the division on paper - are only two games back, and they're the team with the worst record in the division! Can the Panthers maintain their good form? We think so, but the South could be turned on it's head by a couple of divisional results.

This week: @ Tampa Bay - Carolina win

12) Chicago Bears - What can you say? The team gets wins, one way or another. You can certainly never say the team is dull to watch - though perhaps the number of people with heart problems in Chicago could be traced back to a steady diet of Pizza and Bears. Either way, the team is in the box seat, and confidence is growing in QB Kyle Orton, who is proving himself more than a game manager every week. The play of rookie Matt Forte has been a pleasant surprise, and the one word that springs to mind regarding the running back is 'playmaker'. Sadly, the team does not have enough of these to contend for the big one this year.

This week: @ Atlanta - Chicago win

13) Buffalo Bills - WHAT DID WE SAY? Ok, no more bragging, but it is true that we have been saying for a couple of weeks that the Bills being at the top of the pile was due to their schedule as much as anything, and last week's implosion in Arizona was on the Cards (yes, we just did that) long before Trent Edwards was knocked out of the game. They have a bye this week, and it couldn't come at a better time, as the Bills need to regroup fast to avoid freefalling. What the Patriots and Jets do this weekend could be more important than Buffalo's result next week.

This week: bye

14) Arizona Cardinals - Ok breath... breath... breath... Yes, the Cards are in the top half of the power rankings. It's on merit, and you have to feel that in a division where the other teams are amongst the three worst in the league, the Cardinals have a huge opportunity to make the playoffs this season. Kurt Warner is always going to rack up yards, and even with his fumblitis, he can keep the team in contention against the biggest of deficits. The big question will come if Warner goes down with an injury, but Matt Leinart is no scrub, and can likely hold the team together down the stretch.

This week: vs Dallas - Dallas win

15) Philadelphia Eagles - Not quite out of the hunt yet, but in need of some help to regain lost ground against the rest of the division. Don't count them out though, especially considering that the Redskins and Giants are perhaps shakier than their records suggest. Unfortunately, the injury sustained to Brian Westbrook could deal the final blow to this team's hopes, but a game against the 49ers and a bye week next week could see them right back in the mix.

This week: @ San Francisco - Philadelphia win

16) New York Jets - Just scraping in are the Jets, who are technically bottom of the AFC East, but could be right back in the playoff chase if results go their way. Brett Favre is finding the New York Groove, but the danger is that with the Dolphins making progress, the Jets could also slip the other way. Their schedule is favourable in the next few weeks, and they must make the most of that before their tough divisional games come up, as it's make or break time in week 11 as they travel to New England for a crucial Thursday night matchup.

This week: vs Cincinnati - NY Jets win

The rest (In one word or phrase):

17) Jacksonville Jaguars - Inconsistent
This week: @ Denver - Jacksonville win

18) New Orleans Saints - Lacking a dominant running back

This week: vs Oakland - Oakland win

19) Baltimore Ravens - Best of a bad bunch

This week: @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis win

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Still in the hunt

This week - vs Carolina - Carolina win

21) Atlanta Falcons - Improving all the time

This week: vs Chicago - Chicago win

22) Miami Dolphins - Intelligent football team

This week: @ Houston - Houston win

23) Minnesota Vikings - Internal strife is never a good sign

This week: vs Detroit - Minnesota win

24) Houston Texans - Better than their record

This week: vs Miami - Houston win

25) Cleveland Browns - Recovery does not look imminent

This week: vs NY Giants - NY Giants win

26) Seattle Seahawks - Time zones, no Receivers, no Quarterback...

This week: vs Green Bay - Green Bay win

27) Cincinnati Bengals - Falling apart

This week: @ NY Jets - NY Jets win

28) Oakland Raiders - Potentially the surprise team of the next few weeks

This week: @ New Orleans - Oakland win

29) San Francisco 49ers - Poor despite their record

This week vs Philadelphia - Philadelphia win

30) Kansas City Chiefs - Poor coaching, unable to use their best weapons

This week: bye

31) Detroit Lions - Embarrassing - and that's in their own words

This week: @ Minnesota - Minnesota win

32) St. Louis Rams - New coach, new beginning? Just an outside shot at a victory this week.

This week: @ Washington - St. Louis win

Week Five Power Rankings

An all in one bumper update this week, sponsored by my wisdom teeth trying to burrow their way out of my skull. Yes, it's pain city, but on the plus side, I can manage to churn out this rubbish quality content while I'm incapacitated. One thing I'm going to do is take a look at some of the bigger stories too, because we've become bogged down in predictions and stats over the last few weeks, which isn't how I imagined the site becoming during the '08 season.

Anyway, let's kick off with the Power Rankings from week five:


1) Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys remain in top spot, but it's more an indication of how poor some of their main rivals have been in recent weeks. Divisional losses hurt more, but even in the NFL's strongest division, the 'boys reign supreme.

2) San Diego Chargers - The Chargers are the best of a challenging group that has tailed off in recent weeks. Do you look at their propensity to struggle against weak opposition - but grind out a win - as a good thing, or a bad thing? To me, it's enough to question their ability to go deep into the playoffs.

3) Green Bay Packers - A .500 team in 3rd, whilst it's NFC counterparts languish down the rankings? Well think about this: The Packers can likely afford to lose 5 games, and still win their division. It's a luxury that none of their NFC rivals can realistically afford.

4) New England Patriots - No move for the Pats, as again, it's hard to knock a team that didn't play, when it's rivals seem so underwhelming. The next two games will likely determine whether they can retain the AFC East.

5) New York Giants - The Giants eh? Everyone has them in the top three, but hold on for a moment. Do people seriously think that because the Giants beat the Redskins, and the Redskins beat the Cowboys, that somehow the Giants have overtaken the Cowboys? No, we've said it before, but that's not how it works, otherwise the Jets (who beat the Dolphins) would have beaten the Pats. Got it yet? Probably not. Said it before: Let's see how they fare against genuine quality. The Seahwaks are a nice test.

6) Tennessee Titans - Again, a team that is higher on most boards at the moment. Why? Well, they have one of the best Defences in football, and their running game has the feted 'Thunder and Lightning' combination that has become de rigeur throughout the league. The big question for me - and I'll go into some depth on this one later - is what happens when this team starts losing. How will they react? At the moment they're in the enviable position of not knowing what that is like.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers - The big question for Pittsburgh is 'can they stay healthy?'. Right now it's not looking good. Mewelde Moore at Running Back is not as bad as people might think. Moore was a relatively dependable back in Minnesota, forced out more by the Peterson-Taylor combination than any real failings on his own part. An injury to Ben Roethlisberger is still the major worry. Every week he takes a knock of some description, and really the O-line needs to start protecting him from what could at some point become a season-ending mauling.

8) Philadelphia Eagles - Ouch. A fall from grace for Philly, who can't seem to quite nail their colours to any kind of winning streak. Compared to the Redskins, I'd say they have the experience neccesary to stay in the playoff hunt, though, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them challenge the Cowboys for the NFC East come December.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags have now ground out two close victories over Divisional rivals, including the reigning AFC South champions, the Colts. A patchwork O-line seems to have at least stabilised the pass protection for David Garrard, but to get back to 'contender' status, they'll need to take the Rushing form they showed against Indianapolis two weeks ago and get it to consistently work.

10) Indianapolis Colts - The Colts pay the price for a bye week when their major rivals in the division both won. The Houston game is now crucial, and it's imperative that the team learns to stop a concerted Running game, as both Chicago and the Jags have ran all over this team.

11) Washington Redskins - Why so low? Well it's simple: Jason Campbell is still - despite the gushing praise from some media types - performing with the consistency of a second year player. The Defence, too, looks to have regressed back to it's pre-2007 habits of giving up big plays at crucial moments. Mainly though, they're probably a year away from winning this division.

12) New Orleans Saints - The Saints are putting up big offensive numbers, and have had a relatively tough schedule with the exception of last week's encounter with the 49ers. Drew Brees has been the best QB in the league through four weeks, and if he stays healthy, the team should roll into the playoffs. Their division is a tough one to predict, however, with the Panthers and Bucs snapping atheir heels and claiming big scalps on the way.

13) Buffalo Bills - This one will cause uproar, we know. Look, the Bills are 4-0, and we're glad, because for one reason or another, we grew up wishing they would break their Superbowl duck. The reality of the situation though, is that this team narrowly beat Seattle and Jacksonville when they were injury plagued, and has genuinely struggled against the Raiders and Rams - the two worst teams in the league on our list - in the last two weeks. Remember that the AFC East plays the AFC and NFC West divisions this season, which in theory means that the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots all get to face the same weak opposition. The Bills will make the playoffs, but how will they fare come the crunch, after one of the easiest schedules in football? It will be a strong test of character for a young team.

14) Carolina Panthers - A solid win against a divisional rival (Atlanta) was important, but as usual, the South is much of a muchness. None of the teams inspire you enough that you'd happily wager money on them winning or losing the next game. In what is traditionally a close division, the Panthers find themselves in the lead right now. Expect that to change, but not this week - they face the Chiefs.

15) Denver Broncos - What did we say? We said they'd screw up against the Chiefs, and they only went and did! The main reason being that enough people had hopped on the bandwagon, that eventually the whole thing would tilt over and end up in a ditch. Not quite sure what that means? Me neither, but they lost to the Chiefs, and that isn't good.

16) New York Jets - Interesting. The Jets have what could be their biggest opportunity for a decade to genuinely rid themselves of their tag as being 'the team most likely to finish second in the AFC East', yet seem intent to labour for every victory. They've made hard work of the Dolphins and Cards, and lost to the two big teams (the Chargers and Patriots) they've faced. Despite that - and it pains us to go along with the man crush that certain media outlets have on him - Brett Favre will win games when they look dead and buried, and will win any shootout like last weekend's against the Cards.

The rest (In one word or phrase):

17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Passable

18) Arizona Cardinals - Glass Ceiling

19) Baltimore Ravens - Unbalanced

20) Chicago Bears - Moustachioed

21) Cleveland Browns - at the crossroads

22) Seattle Seahawks - Homesick

23) Houston Texans - Back on the wagon

24) Minnesota Vikings - Jaded

25) Atlanta Falcons - Satisfied

26) Miami Dolphins - Stable

27) Cincinnati Bengals - Bruised Ego

28) Detroit Lions - Porous

29) San Francisco 49ers - Resuscitated

30) Kansas City Chiefs - Meeting Expectations

31) Oakland Raiders - Circus

32) St. Louis Rams - Utterly inept. Probably have shares in Washington Mutual

Week Four Power Rankings:

After a week long hiatus, power rankings are back, and there's been a bit of a rethink and a reshuffle. We're loath to be the reactionaries that you see on some websites (For example, do you think the Broncos are the fourth best team in football, or is it merely because they've won 3 games?), but even we might have to rethink the Texans.

Anyway: A condensed, one liners-style Power Rankings:

The best:

1) Dallas Cowboys - Beat the team that would have occupied this slot last week.

2) San Diego Chargers - Weak division and weak conference now that the other AFC teams have started to struggle.

3) Green Bay Packers - A loss to Dallas is nothing to dwell on, there was nothing exposed as a huge weakness, though Harris's loss could have an impact.

4) New England Patriots - Yes they're human, but they needed this loss. Been complacent this season, need to get that ruthless streak back.

5) Philadelphia Eagles - Did it against a contender (Pittsburgh), and thus leapfrog a lot of other teams who've had easy starts to the season.

6) New York Giants - See above, only in reverse. This team is vulnerable and could struggle in the middle of the season.

7) Indianapolis Colts - Two close games, and a possibly contentious loss. The Colts could be (this will sound odd) dark horses in the AFC.

8) Pittsburgh Steelers - A bad loss against the Eagles, and some key injuries. A lot will depend on the health of Ben Roethlisberger.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars - The running game will gain confidence, which is all this team needs to become the contender we thought they could be.

10) Tennessee Titans - The defence is there, it's all about whether the offence can keep them ahead inc lose games. So far, so good.

11) Buffalo Bills - A weak schedule disguises the flaws, but to be fair to the Bills, they are still winning, and that is what counts. St. Louis next up...

12) New Orleans Saints - Frustratingly poor on the road, if they play to their potential they can be playoff-bound, if not, they will likely fall behind the Panthers.

13) Washington Redskins - Inconsistent, but Jim Zorn is a good coach, and there is a gut feeling that momentum could build in the capital.

14) Carolina Panthers - They have a chance. Need the running game back on track though, and will be disappointed to lose to a fellow wild-card prospect in Minnesota last week.

15) Denver Broncos - Will probably contrive to lose at Kansas City, such is their unpredictable nature. Jay Cutler is as good a QB in the league right now, but this team needs to prove it can get it done over time, not just it's first three games.

16) Arizona Cardinals Dizzy heights for the Cards, but a loss in Washington is nothing to panic about. In a weak division, the Cards find themselves playoff bound by default. With the Seahawks on a Bye, this week is a big chance to take a 2 game lead in the NFC West.

The rest:

17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

18) Baltimore Ravens

19) Cleveland Browns

20) Chicago Bears

21) New York Jets

22) Minnesota Vikings

23) Seattle Seahawks

24) Atlanta Falcons

25) Houston Texans

26) Miami Dolphins

27) Cincinnati Bengals

28) Detroit Lions

29) Oakland Raiders

30) San Francisco 49ers

31) Kansas City Chiefs

32) St. Louis Rams