Lessons learned from weeks 1-10

With nine games gone, we're hitting the home stretch now, and it's about this time of year that you can start to make an informed decision on a team. Yes, they are who we thought they were.

Here's a division-by-division look at the NFL after the final bye week:









NFC North

Hands up who saw the Bears having a shot at the playoffs this year? 'Big Mike' in Chicago can put his hand down now, because he's probably the sole person who genuinely thought that this team had a hope in hell. To say that it's a foregone conclusion would be wrong, especially with the Vikings overcoming their coaching of late, but the fact remains that this is a weak division, that realistically anyone except the Lions could win. On the subject of the Lions, digest this: The team has given up more than 400yds on average every single game. That's a full 160yds more than the league leading Steelers. It will not be a quick fix in Detroit.

NFC East

When you talk about overrated divisions... no, we jest. There are four good teams in the East, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys spring a playoff run out of nowhere now, starting this Sunday night in Washington. The weakness of the North and West divisions means that the wild card spots will almost certainly come from NFC East and/or South teams, so the good news for Philly, Dallas, and Washington is that second place will almost certainly guarantee a playoff spot. On the subject of Philly, they can never be counted out, but it's hard to see them overcoming leapfrogging the Cowboys and Redskins unless they can pull off some impressive divisional wins.

NFC South

A surprise division? Perhaps. A surprise team? Definitely. The Falcons are a major story now, and anyone who doesn't believe in them had better take a good look at how good this team has been in recent weeks, and in particular Matt Ryan, the rookie QB who is a shoe in for rookie of the year. I'll be doing a full and proper discussion of Ryan's ability in due course, but for now suffice to say that this division is wide open. Don't be surprised to see the Panthers make the playoffs - this is a good team, and until last weekend, Steve Smith had three straight 100yd games receiving. They have good Running Backs and a solid D. They could even shock a few teams and reach the Superbowl. That isn't even a joke. The Saints are the odd team out, as the only team with a losing record. Their week 12 matchup against Tampa Bay will likely see one of the two teams drop out of the hunt for the divisional title.

One thing of note: The NFC South teams have had a slightly easier schedule than most, facing the NFC North, and the AFC West as part of the schedule rotation. It's no surprise to see them making the most of their opportunities to win, and it's one of the reasons why this division could send three teams to the playoffs at the expense of the NFC East's 'big four'.

NFC West

Oh dear. What can you say about a division who's lone bright spot is the Arizona Cardinals? For all their passing virtuoso, the Cards are not a team that oozes confidence, and they will need more from their home crowd if they are to progress far into the playoffs. As for the other teams (who between them have only managed to equal the Cards' six wins), Seattle's season has been mulliganed on the basis that their entire WR corps was seemingly infected with the plague, the 49ers have appointed a man who shows his bare ass to his players in an attempt to motivate them (insert punchline here... actually that's a bad choice of phrase), and the Rams? They showed some fight after they sacked Scott Linehan, but realistically the team should thrust itself into rebuilding mode as soon as possible. It sounds radical, but trading Holt and Bulger would clear cap room and bring in valuable draft picks with which to rebuild the offensive line and the defence.

AFC North

Pittsburgh eh? I mentioned them as Superbowl contenders in a previous post, but the last few weeks have seen a question arise that could severely hinder that aspiration - a question revolving around the durability of the team's two most important players. If Willie Parker and Ben Roethlisberger are as limited as they have been recently - and reports suggest Parker could be out for the year - then the team will struggle to make good on their initial promise. The Ravens have been a pleasant surprise after a poor 2007. Rookie Joe Flacco has shown immense poise, and the team has found form at a time when a lot of teams struggle. In Ohio, neither the Browns or Bengals will trouble the playoffs this year, though it has at least paved the way for the Brady Quinn era to begin in Cleveland. Cincinnati's season is written off completely, and it would be a huge surprise if QB Carson Palmer plays again in 2008. Interestingly, Cedric Benson could easily have done enough to justify the team keeping him on as their starting running back next season.

Interestingly, the AFC North is split between a Defensive ethos that pervades with the two winning teams, and an Offensive bias that has been unable to make up for the shortcomings in the other phases of the game for the Bengals and Browns.

AFC East

Thursday night's game between the Jets and Patriots in Foxboro could well decide the divisional title. The Jets have shown some brilliant offence this season, though as usual they have struggled to turn that into momentum for a serious playoff push. Even now, it's hard to have confidence in any team in the East, despite none of the teams having a losing record. The Dolphins appear to have the best shot of toppling the Patriots, with easy matchups outside of the divisional games. A couple of upset victories in New York and Buffalo could see them push the Patriots all the way. The Jets face some difficult matchups in Seattle, Tennessee, and against Denver. They will need to weather those storms to seriously challenge for the division. The Bills are pretty much out after a decline in Trent Edwards' form and some critical losses. If they get on a roll, there's no telling what could happen, but right now their momentum is gone and the team is in serious need of a confidence boost against the Browns on MNF before the Chiefs head to town. If those two games go awry, it could be the final nail in the Bills' 2008 coffin.

AFC South

It would be remiss of me to gloss over my comments about the Titans earlier in the season. I still maintain that the team will struggle when the going gets tough, but in truth, they've shown resilience so far, and have extricated themselves from a couple of holes. Right now, if I was a Titans fan, I'd ask myself if the team can overcome two difficult games at the end of the season (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) and carry their momentum into the playoffs. If the answer is yes, they'll be hard to beat. If not, I can't honestly see the team figuring out the higher powered offences they will face in the playoffs. Indy, Houston and Jacksonville have all flattered to deceive at various points. Matt Schaub's health has scuppered the Texans - despite a three game winning streak when he was fit - The Jags have no offensive line and seemingly little consistency. The Colts look streaky too, but as always, you never rule Peyton Manning out of any contest. They currently sit one game outside the wild card spots, but anything can happen in the next few weeks.

AFC West

The two west divisions are arguably the worst in football, and whoever wins the playoff race between the Broncos and Chargers should count themselves fortunate that they have four games against the Raiders and Chiefs this year to keep them in touch with each other and give them a shot at the Superbowl. Seriously, don't be surprised if one of these teams 'pulls a Giants' and goes all the way, such is the fickle nature of the NFL postseason. That's not a random prediction though, it's based on two teams that will always score points, and just need to develop defensive resilience to make the leap. The Raiders are in a heap of trouble both on and off the field, whereas the Chiefs have shown some spirit of late, and realistically Herm Edwards will have at least one more year in charge to try and get the team on track for the future. Both teams will be part of a look at the worst four teams in football that will be up later in the week.

Why the 49ers should give Alex Smith another shot in 2009

Anyone who had the (mis)fortune to catch the MNF thriller between the 49ers and the Cardinals in Arizona last night, should be in no doubt that if San Francisco is genuinely going to become a better team, they need a new Quarterback. Mike Singletary can show the team his bare ass all he likes - hell, he can turn round for an encore - but the team that he envisages the 49ers becoming will not work with any of the current signal callers on the active roster.

Singletary believes in a run-first offence that manages the ball and relies on it's defence to give them good field position. Of course, Defence is not the biggest worry right now for the niners, who are 22nd in the league in total yards against. If you think 22nd isn't good, ask yourself this: How many times have the Offence gone three-and-out this year? Enough times that the team should by rights have given up a mammoth amount of yards.

Unfortunately, the team cannot exist on a diet of J.T. O'Sullivan's fumbles, or Shaun Hill's laughably weak arm. Both have shown that their major deficiencies are not something that will easily be overcome, and that's why I believe there's a better than evens chance that Alex Smith, the no.1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, could be back with the 49ers next season.

First of all, the major obstacle: Smith's contract. He's due almost $10m, a figure that the team will balk at paying for a player who at best can expect a competition for the starting job next spring. On the other hand, if we assume that Smith can be brought back at a lower rate - perhaps under a restructured deal - it's highly likely that new coach Mike Singletary would opt to at least see what he has before making any snap decisions to bring in a veteran free agent, for example Cleveland's Derek Anderson.

If the team releases Smith, then attempts to sign him back at a more palatable salary for 2009, it's highly likely that at least one team would give Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting role. The Vikings, the Bucs, and perhaps the Lions could be interested in acquiring Smith in an attempt to see exactly how much of Smith's decline was his own fault.

And that leads me to my final point: It really isn't his fault at all.

The knock on Smith is that he doesn't have the mental strength to play in the NFL - but the guy has played under as many offensive coordinators as he has played years in the league, and he had the traumatic rookie season, during which he struggled mightily and threw just one touchdown. These two factors would affect plenty of Quarterbacks straight out of college, but that is no reason to give up on them completely. His fall has mainly been intertwined with that of head coach Mike Nolan, who realised midway through Smith's third year - where he suffered a shoulder injury that has only now been dealt with properly - that to save his job, he would need to win more games than he could afford to let Alex Smith lose for his own development.

Looking back to Smith's sophomore season under OC Norv Turner, there were plenty of signs that he was maturing and developing into an NFL calibre QB. His sack ratio was halved, and he threw 16 TD's and 16 INTs. He also threw for nearly 3000yds in a team that was not exactly overloaded with game winning receivers. All of this should really have counted for more than it did when Nolan effectively threw him under the bus after the shoulder injury, accusing Smith of lacking toughness for what transpired to be a potentially career-threatening injury.

So here's the deal: If you want to blame anyone for Alex Smith's woes, blame Mike Nolan. The sycophantic ramblings of Jamie Dukes on NFL Network's Total Access show last week as he eulogised Nolan (the in-studio guest) as a 'great coach' were completely against all evidence to the contrary that we saw in San Francisco. If anything, we saw a man who struggled to get the best out of high draft picks, who made rash comments about a young man learning his trade, and who realistically will next get a job as a Defensive coordinator somewhere around the league.

As for Smith, it would be rash to say he's the next Peyton Manning (More of Matt Ryan later), but he deserves at least one more shot at being a starter in the NFL, and if people read between the stat-lines, they might realise that there is potential still unharvested in the young man out of Utah.