Shortly after I posted an article breaking down the QB class of 2010 a few weeks back now, Florida QB Tim Tebow announced his participation in the Senior Bowl.
To say that Tebow's decision was a surprise is perhaps a stretch. He had previously shown no indication that he would take part, whilst commentators (including myself) were against the idea on the basis that it could highlight his weaknesses, rather than show off the skills that have already been displayed over 40 starts with the Gators. On the other hand, he has shown a ready desire to improve, and as he mentioned during an NFL Network interview on Tuesday, he just loves the idea of competing. In many ways, it was almost inevitable that as the consensus grew that he would decline to take part, he would go against that grain.
Unfortunately for Tebow, his decision has produced mixed results. Whilst his desire and competitive nature are not in question, his mechanics, footwork, and decision making will certainly be under even more scrutiny at Florida's pro-day in march after a poor performance under center in Mobile. Perhaps worst of all, sleeper prospects Tony Pike (Cincinnati) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) and Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) all performed better than Tebow over the course of the week, meaning that he now has far greater competition at the position than was expected. I'll summarise the emergence of those three QB's at the end of this post, but first, more on the man we will spend more time discussing in the next few months than any other.
Tebow's most obvious problem in drills this week was clearly his elongated, low-slung arm position when throwing the ball. There is not a team in the NFL that would consider him anything other than a liability with the football right now, something that he is aware of and that he made a conscious effort to rectify and improve over the week. The strides weren't great, but the willingness to change will have helped his stock slightly. During the game itself however, Tebow reverted back to his more comfortable style of throwing and that has to be another concern about a guy who needs to show that he is a quick learner to succeed at the next level.
A lot of people are incensed that a guy considered to be one of, if not the single greatest college players of all time is tabbed as a third rounder by some analysts. The best way of summarising why they are wrong is probably to watch Tebow's performance against the upper echelon of college talent that he faced over this week. The sad fact is that his athleticism is slightly exaggerated to the extent where people consider him to be a 'dual threat', but as we can see simply by watching his rushing plays last night, the talent against him when he reaches the next level will not allow him to rush with the success he achieved in college.
Tebow's footwork and overall discomfort in a pro-style offence were big red-flags to me. I particularly don't like his habit of turning his back to the play, and a factor that has rarely been discussed is that as a left hander, his 'best' lineman (ie: his left offensive tackle) will not be protecting his blind side, meaning that turning his back on defences could be even more of a problem in the NFL. There have been plenty of successful NFL lefties (Steve Young, Michael Vick, Boomer Esaison) but none of these players had the other problems that Tebow is facing as they prepared for the draft.
Saturday night may well have cemented to me that Tebow cannot be considered a first round pick by anyone who does not have an ulterior motive for seeing him drafted that highly. I add that caveat simply because there are a few franchises in Jacksonville, Buffalo and Oakland who could well buy into the 'cult of Tebow' and select him based on his popularity, rather than his footballing ability. All three are desperate for a 'face' of their franchise, and I would think that they would be among the first teams to consider him at some stage of the draft.
The problems during the game were there for everyone to see, and as I mentioned earlier, Pike, LeFevour and Robinson all made big strides (though of course not as long as Tebow's...) throughout the week. Pike is widely considered to be the most likely player to rise in mock drafts in the run up to the draft, so whilst his performance in the game itself was perhaps nothing to write home about, his overall impression over the week was that he can certainly make the transition to a pro-style offence a lot quicker than some other prospects. LeFevour (ranked joint 5th with Pike on Mike Mayock's draft board) looked good too, and made big strides by posting solid numbers on Saturday. His arm strength is better than advertised, and with a mistake-free performance he has likely improved his stock more than Zac Robinson, who despite his decent outing during the game, perhaps lacks the arm strength and accuracy needed to genuinely be considered as a mid-round pick.
With all of this in mind, how has this affected how I see the QB class of 2010? Well, it's important to remember that the two juniors who arguably could be first round picks, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen, didn't lose anything this week, so I think their status as the top two prospects is relatively assured entering the combine.
So entering February the QB class stands as follows:
1 Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
2 Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
3 Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
4 Tim Tebow (Florida)
5 Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6 Colt McCoy (Texas)
Of note in recent weeks is Bradford's rise, with it now looking fairly likely that a team in the top 10 will take a shot at him. Clausen's stock in turn must rise on the basis that if Bradford is gone, then other teams looking at QB's will perhaps consider him. Personally I consider him a second round talent, but as I have pointed out numerous times: If you're convinced that a guy can be your franchise QB, there is no such thing as a reach. Similarly though, I maintain that if you are not high on a guy, the worst thing you can do is saddle your franchise with a highly paid young player who will likely prevent you drafting another QB for a number of years. Ironically, I would consider Clausen's former ND team mate Brady Quinn to be an excellent example of a team drafting a player who they were never entirely sold on.
Colt McCoy is higher on Mike Mayock's board than Tim Tebow, which I find intriguing because I generally tend to think along the same lines as him as far as the transition from college to the pros at most positions. Mayock watches a lot of film, but most importantly, he pays a lot of attention to the pro game too, which is something that perhaps explains why some other experts are wildly off with their mock drafts. McCoy for me doesn't possess the intangibles and the accuracy to be a franchise QB in the NFL, and it seems more likely that he will go to a team as a backup and have a Colt Brennan-esque life of never quite being considered for the top gig.
My final thoughts go back to Tim Tebow. Sure some scouts are still curious about 'slash' players, but an NFL QB is built from the head downwards. You can be a great runner, but unless you can throw the ball, manage the game, lead your team, you will not make your way to the very top. Tim Tebow is not even a great runner. He's a good guy, with an excellent work ethic and the chance to one day play in some capacity in the NFL. This week has reaffirmed my position though, that a team selecting him should have a guy who they trust for the next two years minimum before they can rely on Tebow.
To put the concept of athleticism at the QB position into perspective, I'll give you the five of the best QB's of the 00's: Manning, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees. If you were building your ideal QB from these hall of fame calibre players, tell me which guy would you take the running skills from?
Exactly.
Showing posts with label 2010 NFL Draft Quarterbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 NFL Draft Quarterbacks. Show all posts
Sunday, 31 January 2010
Saturday, 9 January 2010
NFL draft 2010 - The Quarterbacks
The NFL draft is soon going to move into focus. Even now, people are speculating that the Redskins may take Jimmy Clausen as their next franchise QB. Tim Tebow remains almost unclassifiable, despite his record with Florida. Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, who Tebow beat to the Heisman in 2007, are the other big name prospects entering the draft this year. I've been discussing this with friends for some time, so here's my take on the quarterbacks in the NFL draft 2010.
First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.
The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.
Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.
Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.
McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.
Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.
The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.
Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.
Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.
That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.
There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.
The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.
Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.
There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.
If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:
Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.
Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.
Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.
Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.
Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.
First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.
The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.
Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.
Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.
McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.
Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.
The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.
Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.
Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.
That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.
There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.
The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.
Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.
There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.
If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:
Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.
Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.
Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.
Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.
Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.
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