Last week we had mixed success with team of the week. The Raiders D, for example, that we picked in our 'under the radar' section, was the second highest scoring Defensive unit, behind only the Giants. The difference? You can pick the Oakland D up on waivers in most leagues.
On the other hand, we got Greg Olsen and Joey Galloway wrong. Olsen - much to our embarrassment - fumbled twice, thus rendering him with negative points in many leagues. Similarly, Galloway was innefective and will not even play this week because of the injury sustained in week two.
So, moving onto this weekend, we'll give you two options at each position:
QB1: Aaron Rodgers, GBP vs DAL
QB2: Carson Palmer, CIN @ NYG
RB1: Frank Gore, SFO vs DET
RB2: Clinton Portis, WAS vs ARI
WR1: Steve Smith, CAR @ MIN
WR2: Calvin Johnson, DET @ SFO
TE1: Tony Gonzalez, KCC @ ATL
TE2: Kellen Winslow, CLE @ BAL
K1: Jason Elam, ATL vs KCC
K2: Joe Nedney, SFO vs DET
DEF1: Chicago, vs TBB
DEF2: New York Jets @ SDC
Saturday 20 September 2008
Week Three Predictions
Apologies for the lack of a power rankings this weekend. We could easily knock them up quickly, but it's not fair to you lot if we don't put as much thought into them as we usually do. The good news is that next week is our own 'bye week', and therefore there'll be more midweek content than usual.
Today though, we're concentrating on predictions. Last weekend we were 11 of 15, and could have been even better had the Seahawks not lost in Overtime to San Francisco, and Ed Hochuli had his glasses on.
Anyway, here's our calls this week:
Kansas City @ Atlanta
As we said last week, the Falcons are some way from being consistently as good as their week one performance showed. On the other hand, the Chiefs look like a team struggling to gel, and last weekend's outburst from Larry Johnson - arguably the team's best offensive weapon - was indicative of the battle that Herm Edwards faces keeping veterans happy in a youthful team. Atlanta at least have that unity, and should take advantage on the ground. Are people now firmly aboard our 'Jerious Norwood Bandwagon'? They should be.
Oakland @ Buffalo
Let's not get carried away - the Bills are not contenders just yet. Two wins against teams that were heavily tipped in preseason (Seattle and Jacksonville) have flattered the Bills somewhat, but that is not to say they are a bad team. You can only beat the team that comes and plays on a Sunday, and that has left the Bills with a great stretch of winnable games, with Oakland, St, Louis, and Arizona next up before the Bye week. Oakland's ground game took a hit when Justin Fargas was lost for this game at least, and it's hard to imagine JaMarcus Russell tearing apart a relatively strong Bills Defence after his abysmal effort last week against a lacklustre Chiefs D.
Tampa Bay @ Chicago
Tipping the Bears for the first time this season has made us think about how good they really are. Are they who we thought they were? No, so we'll let them off the hook. We could do that joke every week.
In all seriousness, a beat-up Bucs team will struggle against a Defence that just oozes 'playmaker' from every pore. If it's Defensive plays you're looking for, then watch the Bears any week, as they are guaranteed to score in a relatively humorous manner. The X-factor here could be Bucs QB Brian Griese, who spent the last two years in Chicago and knows the Defence inside out.
Carolina @ Minnesota
The news that Adrian Peterson could be out on Sunday had no real bearing on this pick. The Panthers have started strongly and are playoff contenders, and that was without Steve Smith. Smith is a clutch player who regularly comes up trumps when the expectation level is high - as it is tomorrow. The Vikings will have Gus Frerrote under centre. That is all that you need to know about how much trouble this team is in.
Miami @ New England
Look, the Pats will probably win this, but get on the Dolphins to beat the spread! We got +12.5, and thinking about it, that's a bargain. Miami are nowhere near as bad as that makes out, and this could even be a relatively close game if the Pats start slowly. Dare we say the 'fins could win? Yeah, we do. This is no gimme by any stretch of the imagination, and it's only the strong Patriots defence that stops us taking Miami.
Yeah, we said that.
Cincinnati @ New York Giants
Like Miami, Cincinnati could beat the spread, but realistically, the Giants should get another win on Sunday. We've asked it before, but is Marvin Lewis serious putting that defence on the field every week? Perhaps the team would stand a better chance if he replaced the Cornerbacks and Safeties with Traffic Cones, and the D-line with some sandbags. Whatever happens, they'll struggle to tackle Brandon Jacobs, who will relish the prospect of taking on such a poor linebacking corps. It's a great pity that Carson Palmer is tied to this team, as talent-wise, he is in the upper echelon of passers in the league. Sadly, he might be remembered as the guy who had just one winning season in his career with the team.
Houston @ Tennessee
Really? Ok, we like Tennessee, but we REALLY like Houston. People can say that the team struggled in week one against Pittsburgh, but plenty of teams will do that. One thing that makes us doubt Tennessee is that Kerry Collins is not a starting Quarterback in this league anymore. That has been proved over time, and he has only ever shown flashes of his talent when called upon recently. Pressure from a strong Houston defensive line could expose him after what amounted to a flag-football contest against the Bengals last week.
Arizona @ Washington
This is a difficult matchup to predict. The Cards have started well, but against weak opposition. The 'skins have been patchy, but managed a good win against a strong team last week against the Saints. What does it mean? Probably a high scoring affair that one team will just edge. We'll plump for the home team and Jason Campbell, though Kurt Warner's early form is something to behold. The Matt Leinart era is a speck on the horizon as things stand. of course, Warner is one of those 'things' and he is not renowned for his ability to 'stand' for a 16 game season.
Do you see what we did?
New Orleans @ Denver
We were wrong about the Broncos. Nothing makes a team more likable than gutsy, maverick calls in the final seconds of a game. Going for two points last week against the Chargers exposed not just Shanahan's confidence in his players, but their confidence in themselves. Jay Cutler looked like a man who genuinely wanted the chance to win, not someone who was afraid of losing.
Unfortunately, we'll stick with the Saints, who - despite looking patchy this season - have a player who Cutler aspires to be, in Drew Brees. A big question mark for this offence is the loss of Marques Colston, but somehow this team always manages to find a big play from one of the other receivers in what is an underrated group.
St. Louis @ Seattle
This is a horror show. The Rams are far and away the worst team in the NFL, but the Seahawks have struggled to score points without their three top receivers. Can the Rams get going? Unlikely against a strong D in Seattle, and they will not relish this game after an opening to the season that sees Scott Linehan treading on thin ice. It would be no surprise to see him axed after this game. One potential situation we would love to see? Ex-Seattle Kicker Josh Brown faced with the game winner in OT. Unless the score is 0-0, that is unlikely.
Detroit @ San Francisco
This could be a shootout. Mike Martz's new offence against the team that he galvanised offensively in the previous two seasons. The 49ers have the stronger Defence, but the Lions can lay claim to having one of the best passing games in the league. It's really a question of which team cracks first. Two things we'd say are certainties are that Frank Gore should make mincemeat of the Lions Defence, and that Calvin Johnson will dominate the 49ers secondary.
Cleveland @ Baltimore
A divisional matchup that is tricky to call after the Ravens missed a week following Hurricane Ike. Joe Flacco showed promise in week one, but then so did Matt Ryan, and look how that turned out for Atlanta in his second game. Altogether, a lot of people are quick to forget that this is essentially a 'strength vs strength' matchup, as the Cleveland Offensive steam train crashes into the buffers of a Baltimore defence that proves itself week in-week out as one of the truly great units of the modern era. Did we mention we're still picking the Browns?
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Nightmare pick. Neither team has looked strong, but the Colts edged a tight game last week, something that they needed to get truly back into the swing of things. The Jags are horrendous without their offensive line, and again, it's hard to see where the yards will come from on the ground. That same thing could be said for either team, but the Colts have an air attack that should be rejuvenated with TE Dallas Clark back in the lineup.
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
All aboard the Steelers bandwagon. I'll be honest, and say from a personal perspective, the Steelers have always been one of the teams that annoyed me. God knows what it was - probably Bill Cowher - but they were one of the teams it was always hard to like unless you were a fully paid-up terrible towel-wielding lunatic. Ben Roethisberger is an underrated player though, probably the third best Quarterback to play since the turn of the millennium. His ability to keep a seemingly dead play alive could hurt the Eagles.
To be fair to Philly, they have tried to veer away from shouldering Brian Westbrook with their entire offensive load, and it has shown in the emergence of DeSean Jackson as a major weapon. This is one of the best matchups in week three, and we expect a tight, low scoring engagement.
Dallas @ Green Bay
If we'd have completed our Power Rankings this week, the Packers would have jumped to number one, even with the Cowboys winning a difficult game against the Eagles last Monday. Put simply, the Packers have a team that is dangerous in all three phases of the game, and Aaron Rodgers proved that he has the physical and psychological toughness to pull a result out, even when momentum seems to be with his opponents. Not only that, but when the team needed a defensive stand, the team responded.
This week is a big early test of the Superbowl credentials of these two teams. Don't bet against this being the NFC conference finals matchup either, as both teams have a great chance to secure home field advantage in January. This week, we prefer the hot hand of Rodgers, but it'll be close.
New York Jets @ San Diego
Will L.T. play? It's certainly not looking good if you go by the noises coming from the Chargers camp, and even if he did play, will we see a replay of last week, when he was forced to leave the game early? As we write, he is pencilled in to start week three, but it would be a surprise if he was as effective as the L.T. we have known in recent years. All of this gives the Jets a huge psychological boost heading into Monday Night, and at the very least, if you're a betting man, get on them now to beat the 8.5pt spread. Like the Bills, the Jets have flattered to deceive lately, but that should not detract from the improvements made in the offseason. Brett Favre is a game winner, and has the balls to win any game he plays in.
Today though, we're concentrating on predictions. Last weekend we were 11 of 15, and could have been even better had the Seahawks not lost in Overtime to San Francisco, and Ed Hochuli had his glasses on.
Anyway, here's our calls this week:
Kansas City @ Atlanta
As we said last week, the Falcons are some way from being consistently as good as their week one performance showed. On the other hand, the Chiefs look like a team struggling to gel, and last weekend's outburst from Larry Johnson - arguably the team's best offensive weapon - was indicative of the battle that Herm Edwards faces keeping veterans happy in a youthful team. Atlanta at least have that unity, and should take advantage on the ground. Are people now firmly aboard our 'Jerious Norwood Bandwagon'? They should be.
Oakland @ Buffalo
Let's not get carried away - the Bills are not contenders just yet. Two wins against teams that were heavily tipped in preseason (Seattle and Jacksonville) have flattered the Bills somewhat, but that is not to say they are a bad team. You can only beat the team that comes and plays on a Sunday, and that has left the Bills with a great stretch of winnable games, with Oakland, St, Louis, and Arizona next up before the Bye week. Oakland's ground game took a hit when Justin Fargas was lost for this game at least, and it's hard to imagine JaMarcus Russell tearing apart a relatively strong Bills Defence after his abysmal effort last week against a lacklustre Chiefs D.
Tampa Bay @ Chicago
Tipping the Bears for the first time this season has made us think about how good they really are. Are they who we thought they were? No, so we'll let them off the hook. We could do that joke every week.
In all seriousness, a beat-up Bucs team will struggle against a Defence that just oozes 'playmaker' from every pore. If it's Defensive plays you're looking for, then watch the Bears any week, as they are guaranteed to score in a relatively humorous manner. The X-factor here could be Bucs QB Brian Griese, who spent the last two years in Chicago and knows the Defence inside out.
Carolina @ Minnesota
The news that Adrian Peterson could be out on Sunday had no real bearing on this pick. The Panthers have started strongly and are playoff contenders, and that was without Steve Smith. Smith is a clutch player who regularly comes up trumps when the expectation level is high - as it is tomorrow. The Vikings will have Gus Frerrote under centre. That is all that you need to know about how much trouble this team is in.
Miami @ New England
Look, the Pats will probably win this, but get on the Dolphins to beat the spread! We got +12.5, and thinking about it, that's a bargain. Miami are nowhere near as bad as that makes out, and this could even be a relatively close game if the Pats start slowly. Dare we say the 'fins could win? Yeah, we do. This is no gimme by any stretch of the imagination, and it's only the strong Patriots defence that stops us taking Miami.
Yeah, we said that.
Cincinnati @ New York Giants
Like Miami, Cincinnati could beat the spread, but realistically, the Giants should get another win on Sunday. We've asked it before, but is Marvin Lewis serious putting that defence on the field every week? Perhaps the team would stand a better chance if he replaced the Cornerbacks and Safeties with Traffic Cones, and the D-line with some sandbags. Whatever happens, they'll struggle to tackle Brandon Jacobs, who will relish the prospect of taking on such a poor linebacking corps. It's a great pity that Carson Palmer is tied to this team, as talent-wise, he is in the upper echelon of passers in the league. Sadly, he might be remembered as the guy who had just one winning season in his career with the team.
Houston @ Tennessee
Really? Ok, we like Tennessee, but we REALLY like Houston. People can say that the team struggled in week one against Pittsburgh, but plenty of teams will do that. One thing that makes us doubt Tennessee is that Kerry Collins is not a starting Quarterback in this league anymore. That has been proved over time, and he has only ever shown flashes of his talent when called upon recently. Pressure from a strong Houston defensive line could expose him after what amounted to a flag-football contest against the Bengals last week.
Arizona @ Washington
This is a difficult matchup to predict. The Cards have started well, but against weak opposition. The 'skins have been patchy, but managed a good win against a strong team last week against the Saints. What does it mean? Probably a high scoring affair that one team will just edge. We'll plump for the home team and Jason Campbell, though Kurt Warner's early form is something to behold. The Matt Leinart era is a speck on the horizon as things stand. of course, Warner is one of those 'things' and he is not renowned for his ability to 'stand' for a 16 game season.
Do you see what we did?
New Orleans @ Denver
We were wrong about the Broncos. Nothing makes a team more likable than gutsy, maverick calls in the final seconds of a game. Going for two points last week against the Chargers exposed not just Shanahan's confidence in his players, but their confidence in themselves. Jay Cutler looked like a man who genuinely wanted the chance to win, not someone who was afraid of losing.
Unfortunately, we'll stick with the Saints, who - despite looking patchy this season - have a player who Cutler aspires to be, in Drew Brees. A big question mark for this offence is the loss of Marques Colston, but somehow this team always manages to find a big play from one of the other receivers in what is an underrated group.
St. Louis @ Seattle
This is a horror show. The Rams are far and away the worst team in the NFL, but the Seahawks have struggled to score points without their three top receivers. Can the Rams get going? Unlikely against a strong D in Seattle, and they will not relish this game after an opening to the season that sees Scott Linehan treading on thin ice. It would be no surprise to see him axed after this game. One potential situation we would love to see? Ex-Seattle Kicker Josh Brown faced with the game winner in OT. Unless the score is 0-0, that is unlikely.
Detroit @ San Francisco
This could be a shootout. Mike Martz's new offence against the team that he galvanised offensively in the previous two seasons. The 49ers have the stronger Defence, but the Lions can lay claim to having one of the best passing games in the league. It's really a question of which team cracks first. Two things we'd say are certainties are that Frank Gore should make mincemeat of the Lions Defence, and that Calvin Johnson will dominate the 49ers secondary.
Cleveland @ Baltimore
A divisional matchup that is tricky to call after the Ravens missed a week following Hurricane Ike. Joe Flacco showed promise in week one, but then so did Matt Ryan, and look how that turned out for Atlanta in his second game. Altogether, a lot of people are quick to forget that this is essentially a 'strength vs strength' matchup, as the Cleveland Offensive steam train crashes into the buffers of a Baltimore defence that proves itself week in-week out as one of the truly great units of the modern era. Did we mention we're still picking the Browns?
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Nightmare pick. Neither team has looked strong, but the Colts edged a tight game last week, something that they needed to get truly back into the swing of things. The Jags are horrendous without their offensive line, and again, it's hard to see where the yards will come from on the ground. That same thing could be said for either team, but the Colts have an air attack that should be rejuvenated with TE Dallas Clark back in the lineup.
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
All aboard the Steelers bandwagon. I'll be honest, and say from a personal perspective, the Steelers have always been one of the teams that annoyed me. God knows what it was - probably Bill Cowher - but they were one of the teams it was always hard to like unless you were a fully paid-up terrible towel-wielding lunatic. Ben Roethisberger is an underrated player though, probably the third best Quarterback to play since the turn of the millennium. His ability to keep a seemingly dead play alive could hurt the Eagles.
To be fair to Philly, they have tried to veer away from shouldering Brian Westbrook with their entire offensive load, and it has shown in the emergence of DeSean Jackson as a major weapon. This is one of the best matchups in week three, and we expect a tight, low scoring engagement.
Dallas @ Green Bay
If we'd have completed our Power Rankings this week, the Packers would have jumped to number one, even with the Cowboys winning a difficult game against the Eagles last Monday. Put simply, the Packers have a team that is dangerous in all three phases of the game, and Aaron Rodgers proved that he has the physical and psychological toughness to pull a result out, even when momentum seems to be with his opponents. Not only that, but when the team needed a defensive stand, the team responded.
This week is a big early test of the Superbowl credentials of these two teams. Don't bet against this being the NFC conference finals matchup either, as both teams have a great chance to secure home field advantage in January. This week, we prefer the hot hand of Rodgers, but it'll be close.
New York Jets @ San Diego
Will L.T. play? It's certainly not looking good if you go by the noises coming from the Chargers camp, and even if he did play, will we see a replay of last week, when he was forced to leave the game early? As we write, he is pencilled in to start week three, but it would be a surprise if he was as effective as the L.T. we have known in recent years. All of this gives the Jets a huge psychological boost heading into Monday Night, and at the very least, if you're a betting man, get on them now to beat the 8.5pt spread. Like the Bills, the Jets have flattered to deceive lately, but that should not detract from the improvements made in the offseason. Brett Favre is a game winner, and has the balls to win any game he plays in.
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