An interesting night awaits.
Even 3 weeks ago, the prospect of these four teams being in the Conference finals would have seemed improbable, but tonight the Steelers will face the Ravens, whilst the Cardinals will take on the Eagles for the right to play in the Superbowl.
My guess? We'll be having a Bird Bowl on February 1st.
I like the Ravens, and I like the Cardinals. Both have proved something that we should have known for years - form in January is the most important thing in January. Of course, the Eagles could claim the same mandate for a victory, but every time I go to choose Philadelphia, something inside tells me that the Cardinals have the desire to do this, and that they can again upset the odds.
As far as the Ravens are concerned, I like both teams equally. In August I tipped the Steelers to win the Superbowl, but no team has shown more in the last few weeks than the Ravens. Their Defence has played to even higher levels than they were already capable of, and Ed Reed is staking his claim to join the all-time greats at the Safety position.
A lot is made of Ray Lewis's impact on his teammates, but equally important is Reed and his intelligence, ability, and attitude. Indeed, this is quite simply the best secondary in the game right now, and can Ben Roethlisberger avoid an implosion? I always think that it's difficult to avoid when faced with a Defence like Baltimore's that loves to bring the pressure.
Whatever happens, the good news is that we're going to have a hell of a Superbowl.
Sunday 18 January 2009
Saturday 17 January 2009
Gruden out in Tampa
In a move that has apparently 'blindsided' the man that brought a Championship to one of the league's worst franchises historically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have parted ways with coach Jon Gruden and G.M. Bruce Allen, after the team failed to make the playoffs despite being in pole position at the beginning of December. The Bucs were usurped by Atlanta and Carolina, who both finished strongly, whilst the Bucs closed the season with something of a whimper.
The move could have wider repercussions around the league, though the timing makes me wonder if the Buccaneers are well aware that the Jets and Rams have narrowed their coaching candidates down to a final shortlist, and that Gruden may not be able to get another Head Coaching gig in 2009. Apparently the Rams wanted to make a decision before Saturday, which would seem to rule Gruden out, whereas the Jets are allegedly enamoured with Ravens Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. If the Ravens are beaten in Sunday's AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, then it is widely assumed that the Jets will then move to appoint Ryan quickly, but if the Ravens make it through to the Superbowl, it will be interesting to see whether the Jets choose to complete 'due diligence' by interviewing Gruden.
Whether Gruden is interested in getting straight back into coaching is another story. It's too early to tell, though it must be galling for him to know that he could potentially have had the University of Tennessee job earlier this year.
Incidentally, I purposely left out the Oakland job, as there is more chance of hell freezing over than Gruden heading back to Oakland. There has been speculation that Gruden's availability could trigger another team to fire their head coach and appoint Gruden. The immediate assumption is Buffalo, but would Gruden be enamoured by the Bills? It's hard to imagine. One place where Gruden could certainly cause a change in direction is in Dallas, where Jerry Jones has been far from unequivocal about the status of current incumbent Wade Phillips.
The move could have wider repercussions around the league, though the timing makes me wonder if the Buccaneers are well aware that the Jets and Rams have narrowed their coaching candidates down to a final shortlist, and that Gruden may not be able to get another Head Coaching gig in 2009. Apparently the Rams wanted to make a decision before Saturday, which would seem to rule Gruden out, whereas the Jets are allegedly enamoured with Ravens Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. If the Ravens are beaten in Sunday's AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, then it is widely assumed that the Jets will then move to appoint Ryan quickly, but if the Ravens make it through to the Superbowl, it will be interesting to see whether the Jets choose to complete 'due diligence' by interviewing Gruden.
Whether Gruden is interested in getting straight back into coaching is another story. It's too early to tell, though it must be galling for him to know that he could potentially have had the University of Tennessee job earlier this year.
Incidentally, I purposely left out the Oakland job, as there is more chance of hell freezing over than Gruden heading back to Oakland. There has been speculation that Gruden's availability could trigger another team to fire their head coach and appoint Gruden. The immediate assumption is Buffalo, but would Gruden be enamoured by the Bills? It's hard to imagine. One place where Gruden could certainly cause a change in direction is in Dallas, where Jerry Jones has been far from unequivocal about the status of current incumbent Wade Phillips.
Sunday 4 January 2009
Wild Card Preview three: This time, it's Baltimore at Miami
I'm 1/2 for Playoff picks, and that was from what some would consider the easiest ties to predict. The Colts were upset in Overtime by the Chargers after a spirited display that saw the Chargers overcome LaDainian Tomlinson's lack of fitness and lean on the speed of Darren Sproles.
Tonight, Miami will host Baltimore, while the Eagles head to Minnesota for a date with the Vikings. On the Love Boat. Possibly.
Baltimore @ Miami
As always, the focus of most people's attention will be the Quarterbacks. Will Joe Flacco fall to the veteran Chad Pennington, just as Matt Ryan was cowed by Kurt Warner last night? I don't think so, but for me, this game is more about what their supporting cast can do.
For the Dolphins, Chad Pennington has had little help all season at the receiver position, and Ted Ginn Jr must start producing more consistently if the team is to progress, as his two TD's this season are not enough. For me, Pennington's best weapon might turn out to be TE David Martin, who has been underrated throughout his spell in the NFL. He has come up trumps for the Dolphins on a few occasions this season, and tonight, when the Ravens bring the heat, he will be Pennington's first read often enough to make a few plays.
Similarly, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams must establish the ground game, and make the Ravens D play what is generally referred to as 'honest football'. A big question for the Ravens is how they will hold up in the playoffs. They are extraordinarily healthy for this period of the season, which is a huge advantage over most of the teams they will face at this point. Players such as Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs have been in tremendous shape this year, after suffering with injuries in the recent past. Is this their year again? It's hard to argue that the Dolphins can stop them when the two teams match up, especially considering the talent that the Ravens have on offence, with LaRon Mclain, Willis Mcgahee and Ray Rice rushing, while Derrick Mason and Todd Heap are both solid veterans in the air.
One thing that for me, swings the entire game in Miami's favour: Bill Parcells.
When the two teams met in October, Baltimore won. Unfortunately, it could well be their undoing, as there is nobody in the game better than Parcells at film study. He will will put the knowledge of the Ravens offence to good use, and primarily, he will ensure that Miami get a much better pass rush this time around. Flacco knows that at any point, he is expected to hit the fabled 'rookie wall', and the Miami Defence will do everything possible to make him uncomfortable while the spotlight is so heavily concentrated on him.
Secondly, I can see the 'wildcat' coming out, but rarely. The thing works, but if you ever have the opportunity to see and hear Ed Reed and Ray Lewis communicate on a football field, you will understand why this Baltimore Defence is categorically one of the greatest to ever play the game. The understanding of offensive plays is probably as good as those who are running them, and their ability to read a formation such as the wildcat comes instinctively. They will not fall into the traps that Miami set. Instead, I think beating the Ravens comes down to one thing: stopping their rushing attack. All of the games they have lost have been primarily down to not being able to establish a solid ground game. Take away this part of the attack, and all of a sudden Flacco is not so comfortable.
The Dolphins should take a leaf out of Arizona's book, and ensure that they put the rookie under as much pressure as possible. After that, they may find that Chad Pennington's traditional dink and dunk style of play is more than enough to beat the Ravens. Of course, don't discount Cam Cameron's offence and his knowledge of the Miami Defence, but I have to side with the Dolphins and Parcells on this one - even over the arguably more talented Baltimore team.
One final note: Out of all of the games this weekend, this is the one I feel could well become a blowout one way or the other.
Tonight, Miami will host Baltimore, while the Eagles head to Minnesota for a date with the Vikings. On the Love Boat. Possibly.
Baltimore @ Miami
As always, the focus of most people's attention will be the Quarterbacks. Will Joe Flacco fall to the veteran Chad Pennington, just as Matt Ryan was cowed by Kurt Warner last night? I don't think so, but for me, this game is more about what their supporting cast can do.
For the Dolphins, Chad Pennington has had little help all season at the receiver position, and Ted Ginn Jr must start producing more consistently if the team is to progress, as his two TD's this season are not enough. For me, Pennington's best weapon might turn out to be TE David Martin, who has been underrated throughout his spell in the NFL. He has come up trumps for the Dolphins on a few occasions this season, and tonight, when the Ravens bring the heat, he will be Pennington's first read often enough to make a few plays.
Similarly, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams must establish the ground game, and make the Ravens D play what is generally referred to as 'honest football'. A big question for the Ravens is how they will hold up in the playoffs. They are extraordinarily healthy for this period of the season, which is a huge advantage over most of the teams they will face at this point. Players such as Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs have been in tremendous shape this year, after suffering with injuries in the recent past. Is this their year again? It's hard to argue that the Dolphins can stop them when the two teams match up, especially considering the talent that the Ravens have on offence, with LaRon Mclain, Willis Mcgahee and Ray Rice rushing, while Derrick Mason and Todd Heap are both solid veterans in the air.
One thing that for me, swings the entire game in Miami's favour: Bill Parcells.
When the two teams met in October, Baltimore won. Unfortunately, it could well be their undoing, as there is nobody in the game better than Parcells at film study. He will will put the knowledge of the Ravens offence to good use, and primarily, he will ensure that Miami get a much better pass rush this time around. Flacco knows that at any point, he is expected to hit the fabled 'rookie wall', and the Miami Defence will do everything possible to make him uncomfortable while the spotlight is so heavily concentrated on him.
Secondly, I can see the 'wildcat' coming out, but rarely. The thing works, but if you ever have the opportunity to see and hear Ed Reed and Ray Lewis communicate on a football field, you will understand why this Baltimore Defence is categorically one of the greatest to ever play the game. The understanding of offensive plays is probably as good as those who are running them, and their ability to read a formation such as the wildcat comes instinctively. They will not fall into the traps that Miami set. Instead, I think beating the Ravens comes down to one thing: stopping their rushing attack. All of the games they have lost have been primarily down to not being able to establish a solid ground game. Take away this part of the attack, and all of a sudden Flacco is not so comfortable.
The Dolphins should take a leaf out of Arizona's book, and ensure that they put the rookie under as much pressure as possible. After that, they may find that Chad Pennington's traditional dink and dunk style of play is more than enough to beat the Ravens. Of course, don't discount Cam Cameron's offence and his knowledge of the Miami Defence, but I have to side with the Dolphins and Parcells on this one - even over the arguably more talented Baltimore team.
One final note: Out of all of the games this weekend, this is the one I feel could well become a blowout one way or the other.
Wild Card Preview Numero Deux: Indianapolis @ San Diego
Well it's been an interesting game in Arizona, and right now my prediction looks pretty accurate. Kudos to the Cardinals defence for stepping up too. It's not over by a long shot, but either way, it's clear that the media have underestimated Arizona.
Anyway, on with the show:
Indianapolis @ San Diego
I've left this late for one big reason: L.T. As it happens, he says he'll play. but after seeing the extent of his injury, I'm not 100% that he can have any impact at all, even if he does so.
To that end, Darren Sproles will likely shoulder the workload, along with Jacob Hester. Ironically, I'd be surprised if that changed the gameplan much. Sproles is a great receiver, just like Tomlinson, so expect plenty of screen passes, which should also negate the Colts' excellent pass defence.
Unfortunately, it's still a huge blow, and it gives the Colts a big boost. Indeed, I think the actual reason why Tomlinson's status is even in doubt is to stop the Colts getting that confidence from knowing their opponent's star player will take no part in the game. The status of Antonio Gates is also up in the air, which is exactly where the Colts thrive on both sides of the ball.
Indy are amongst the league leaders in both passing categories, and with MVP Peyton Manning at the peak of his powers, it's hard to bet against them, even on the road. Dallas Clark will be a key player, and expect him to get on the scoreboard at least once. On the ground, I'd also expect Dominic Rhodes to play an expanded role, much as he did in the 2006 playoff run. Rhodes offers a similar veteran mindset to Edge in Arizona, and sometimes a player with experience can be just as important to a team as a player who is theoretically more gifted.
As always, there is one caveat: Peyton Manning is one of the greatest players - if not the greatest player full stop - to ever play his position. Unfortunately, when he is bad, he is really really bad. Watch for his head dropping if he throws a pick. If he throws another one, watch for him getting irritable on the sidelines. Very occasionally, those things backfire for Manning, and he ends up having a nightmare.
I don't honestly think that will happen tonight, but never say never. Indy will likely win tonight against a frail San Diego Defence, and the key to this game will be not what the Colts do, but what the Chargers Offence can conjure up in the absence of their focal point.
Anyway, on with the show:
Indianapolis @ San Diego
I've left this late for one big reason: L.T. As it happens, he says he'll play. but after seeing the extent of his injury, I'm not 100% that he can have any impact at all, even if he does so.
To that end, Darren Sproles will likely shoulder the workload, along with Jacob Hester. Ironically, I'd be surprised if that changed the gameplan much. Sproles is a great receiver, just like Tomlinson, so expect plenty of screen passes, which should also negate the Colts' excellent pass defence.
Unfortunately, it's still a huge blow, and it gives the Colts a big boost. Indeed, I think the actual reason why Tomlinson's status is even in doubt is to stop the Colts getting that confidence from knowing their opponent's star player will take no part in the game. The status of Antonio Gates is also up in the air, which is exactly where the Colts thrive on both sides of the ball.
Indy are amongst the league leaders in both passing categories, and with MVP Peyton Manning at the peak of his powers, it's hard to bet against them, even on the road. Dallas Clark will be a key player, and expect him to get on the scoreboard at least once. On the ground, I'd also expect Dominic Rhodes to play an expanded role, much as he did in the 2006 playoff run. Rhodes offers a similar veteran mindset to Edge in Arizona, and sometimes a player with experience can be just as important to a team as a player who is theoretically more gifted.
As always, there is one caveat: Peyton Manning is one of the greatest players - if not the greatest player full stop - to ever play his position. Unfortunately, when he is bad, he is really really bad. Watch for his head dropping if he throws a pick. If he throws another one, watch for him getting irritable on the sidelines. Very occasionally, those things backfire for Manning, and he ends up having a nightmare.
I don't honestly think that will happen tonight, but never say never. Indy will likely win tonight against a frail San Diego Defence, and the key to this game will be not what the Colts do, but what the Chargers Offence can conjure up in the absence of their focal point.
Saturday 3 January 2009
Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?
It's officially Wild Card weekend, and that means a preview of the four games that will decide who will fall at the first hurdle. Today Atlanta will head to the desert to face Arizona, and Indianapolis will also make a long trip west to play San Diego. I'll break down these two games first.
Atlanta @ Arizona
On paper, it's a mismatch. The Falcons enter the game having won three straight games, and five of their last six. The Cards have been abysmal, stuttering to the finish line with an unconvincing win over Seattle and a humiliation by the Patriots in a snowy week 16 matchup.
Despite all of this, I believe these two teams are pretty similar, the only difference being that the Falcons rely heavily on the run, whereas the Cards go to the air. Apart from that, the teams have very similar Defensive statistics, and arguably both rely on their offence to make plays due to their propensity to give up yards on the defensive side of the ball. A lot has been made of both Quarterbacks, and rightly so. Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan have done excellent jobs this season, and have been the primary reasons why both teams find themselves in the Playoffs - yes, Ryan is probably more important to the Falcons' success than Michael Turner, as a poor QB could easily undo Turner's efforts on the ground.
What strikes me most is how similar the two Defences are. Barring some key standout players on either side (Adrian Wilson, John Abraham), neither could be considered as particularly strong. Indeed, these are the two worst Defensive teams left in the playoffs, and that makes the matchups intriguing. Certainly the Cards will feel better about their chances of running the ball in this game than previously, and a lot will depend on Edgerin James, who is expected to start the game. Tim Hightower should also find it much easier spelling James than being the focal point of the Running game. One place that is a definite mismatch is in the secondary, as Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald go up against an Atlanta secondary that is youthful, especially at the corner position, and could be missing Lawyer Milloy, the Safety who is arguably the Defence's emotional leader.
All of these factors favour Arizona, but what about the Falcons? Surely they must still be considered favourites? Well, yes. They have a fearsome ground game (something that ESPN must regret touting as the 24th best in the league at the beginning of the season) based on an every down back (Turner) and a speed back in Jerious Norwood who has the capability to break a big play whenever he touches the ball. All of that should open up the passing game for Matt Ryan and his go-to receivers, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. White in particular, has been clutch this season, and if the duo get going early, it could be a long evening for the Cardinals Defence.
Both teams have one other X-factor: The return game. Norwood and Harry Douglas for Atlanta, and Steve Breaston for Arizona, all contribute both on offence and special teams. It would not be a surprise at all to see one of the trio score on a kick return.
I'll go out on a limb here and say that I think Arizona will win this one. They have the kind of team I don't believe anyone wants to face in the 4th quarter, even if they're down by a score. They have the capability to move the ball downfield at a pace that Atlanta may not be able to match, and for that reason, I think they will likely avoid the conservative approach that they adopted towards the end of the season, and get back to what they do best - relying on Kurt Warner.
Atlanta @ Arizona
On paper, it's a mismatch. The Falcons enter the game having won three straight games, and five of their last six. The Cards have been abysmal, stuttering to the finish line with an unconvincing win over Seattle and a humiliation by the Patriots in a snowy week 16 matchup.
Despite all of this, I believe these two teams are pretty similar, the only difference being that the Falcons rely heavily on the run, whereas the Cards go to the air. Apart from that, the teams have very similar Defensive statistics, and arguably both rely on their offence to make plays due to their propensity to give up yards on the defensive side of the ball. A lot has been made of both Quarterbacks, and rightly so. Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan have done excellent jobs this season, and have been the primary reasons why both teams find themselves in the Playoffs - yes, Ryan is probably more important to the Falcons' success than Michael Turner, as a poor QB could easily undo Turner's efforts on the ground.
What strikes me most is how similar the two Defences are. Barring some key standout players on either side (Adrian Wilson, John Abraham), neither could be considered as particularly strong. Indeed, these are the two worst Defensive teams left in the playoffs, and that makes the matchups intriguing. Certainly the Cards will feel better about their chances of running the ball in this game than previously, and a lot will depend on Edgerin James, who is expected to start the game. Tim Hightower should also find it much easier spelling James than being the focal point of the Running game. One place that is a definite mismatch is in the secondary, as Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald go up against an Atlanta secondary that is youthful, especially at the corner position, and could be missing Lawyer Milloy, the Safety who is arguably the Defence's emotional leader.
All of these factors favour Arizona, but what about the Falcons? Surely they must still be considered favourites? Well, yes. They have a fearsome ground game (something that ESPN must regret touting as the 24th best in the league at the beginning of the season) based on an every down back (Turner) and a speed back in Jerious Norwood who has the capability to break a big play whenever he touches the ball. All of that should open up the passing game for Matt Ryan and his go-to receivers, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. White in particular, has been clutch this season, and if the duo get going early, it could be a long evening for the Cardinals Defence.
Both teams have one other X-factor: The return game. Norwood and Harry Douglas for Atlanta, and Steve Breaston for Arizona, all contribute both on offence and special teams. It would not be a surprise at all to see one of the trio score on a kick return.
I'll go out on a limb here and say that I think Arizona will win this one. They have the kind of team I don't believe anyone wants to face in the 4th quarter, even if they're down by a score. They have the capability to move the ball downfield at a pace that Atlanta may not be able to match, and for that reason, I think they will likely avoid the conservative approach that they adopted towards the end of the season, and get back to what they do best - relying on Kurt Warner.
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