McNabb trade a big gamble for Reid and Heckert

There is a consensus building that the Philadelphia Eagles will trade Donovan McNabb in the next few weeks, before turning their franchise over to Kevin Kolb. Is this the right decision?

First of all, I am a big fan of McNabb. Two years ago this same situation would have resulted in fans clamouring for him to get out of town, because he has never quite convinced Eagles fans that he is the guy that will bring them a championship. In the last couple of years, however, he has responded well to the indignity of being benched midway through a game and played better football as a result.

On the other hand, the clock is very much ticking, and McNabb is no longer in his prime. Even with quarterbacks playing longer than ever, McNabb can't be guaranteed to play longer than two more years. Now consider that Kevin Kolb has shown flashes in relief and in pre-season that he is ready to replace McNabb, and you have an interesting quandary for Eagles GM Tom Heckert and coach Andy Reid. Should they trade McNabb now and cash in while they still can? Or would they be better off holding on to McNabb and giving him one or two last shots to win the team a Super Bowl?

The first question is whether the team believs in Kolb to maintain a level of respectability next season. The Eagles fanbase is notorious for it's impatience, so if Kolb starts very slowly there could be an issue. Not only that, but it could be exaggerated further if McNabb is playing well for a new team. Imagine how silly Heckert and Reid are going to look if McNabb takes a perennially losing franchise like Buffalo or Oakland, and turns them into playoff contenders? Maybe it's a long shot, but it's not out of the question. If it happens, they will both be out of jobs.

McNabb's trade value is certainly not as strong as first thought. Part of this is due to the public's lack of awareness about draft pick value in the modern era. The time was that a starting QB was a no-brainer to command a first round pick. Hell, Rick Mirer went for two a first rounder and was then traded within a year. It was just an accepted risk in the nineties. The market has changed in the last ten years, especially as the financial climate has left more teams questioning the value they receive from top picks.

All of a sudden you have players valued at a second rounder who are brought in to start and be the 'franchise' QB, such as McNabb, Matt Cassell in KC, and Matt Schaub in Houston. Where does this leave a player with questionable impact such as Michael Vick? Interesting thought. The general consensus amongst fans is that McNabb and Kolb are worth first rounders, whilst Vick is worth a second. The reality is that few teams will pay a first for a guy who could be done in a year (McNabb), or who hasn't proven himself (Kolb).

The Eagles figure to trade McNabb and extend Kolb in the same way that Green Bay turned Brett Favre loose in favour of Aaron Rodgers two years ago. There has to be a degree of faith in the front office assessment of Kolb for this to work. The reason it worked for the Packers was that they committed to Rodgers, but they also knew that they wouldn't necessarily need to extend him in his first year of starting. Unfortunately, the Eagles have a limited time frame to deal with Kolb's contract. This could lead to decisions being rushed and mistakes being made.

If it was me? I'd probably trade McNabb too, regardless of the trade return. It's the option that makes most sense if you believe in Kevin Kolb as a starter, because after this year he is sure to walk after another year spent on the bench. Where does that leave Philadelphia? Arguably in a bigger mess and tied to McNabb in the twilight of his career. In fact, if they don't trade McNabb, they will be spending their own high draft picks on a QB next year.