Monday 1 February 2010

Pre-free agency team needs

If there's one thing that annoys me in life, it's mock drafts and the frenzy around them. I don't know if Ndamukong Suh will go to St. Louis no.1 overall, nobody does - even the Rams themselves. For now, let's just get a state of play for the 'top' three teams in the draft. These needs will change in the next few months as players are cut and free agents are signed, but they are still handy when evaluating which direction teams are likely to go both in free agency and the draft.

St. Louis Rams.

1: Defensive Tackle
2: Quarterback
3: Tight End
4: Guard
5: Cornerback

The Rams have pretty obvious needs. The interior linemen on both sides of the ball are average and need replacing this offseason if the team is to have any chance of winning next year. There are players with potential in both of those lines, but the weak links inside are hurting this team week in week out. Tight End is a perennial position of need, and I fully expect the Rams to be aggressive either in free agency or the draft at this position, especially as Randy McMichael - an average player at best - will likely not be re-signed.

Quarterback is more complicated. The top two consensus players in the draft would be Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, but if they aren't sold enough on either to give them the big money at number one overall, maybe they'll take a chance on a project QB such as Tony Pike, who could well be ready to play at some point in 2010 should Marc Bulger either not return or play poorly.

If they don't address it through the draft, the QB free agency class is thin, with nobody the team could build a team around for more than a year or two. Perhaps Chad Pennington combined with a younger player in the draft may be the option that they settle for, or there is the intriguing option of trading for a player who has starting experience but may be available. Michael Vick is one of the few who are young enough to build a team around, though we all know that he comes with baggage. Apart from that the restricted players such as Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell and Kellen Clemens are all too patchy in their bodies of work to spend the necessary draft picks to prise them away from the tenders placed on them by their current teams.

Detroit Lions

1: Offensive Tackle
2: Defensive Tackle
3: Guard
4: Cornerback
5: Defensive End

The Lions need an offensive line desperately, and finding a guy to protect Matthew Stafford would be a sound investment. They also lack an interior rusher, which is a common theme for many of the teams at the top of this year's draft. I would class the need to partner a premier left tackle with your franchise QB as slightly higher than the need to find a big body on defence, but realistically both need to be addressed very soon. I don't see the Lions going for a veteran OT when they still have Jeff Backus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the restricted linemen that are currently slated to hit free agency.

Jahri Evans of the Saints is the standout guy who deserves to get paid this year as far as the guards go, and their are also good options at tackle in Donald Penn (Tampa), Jared Gaither (Baltimore) and Marcus McNeill (San Diego) who may be worth the compensation package that is needed to sign them as RFA's. All three have age on their side and experience in the league.

If I were to make that particular decision, I'd probably head down the route of getting an RFA in at tackle, and taking a Defensive lineman with the second overall pick. One of the crucial factors could be that many of the UFA DT's available this year are either better fits in a 3-4 scheme or they're likely to be franchise tagged by their current teams. The price for getting a player away from such a tag is too much for the Lions, who may well need every draft pick they've got as they try to rebuild from Matt Millen's era.

The secondary in Detroit deserves a quick mention too. They have been consistently one of the worst overall units in the last five years (see also: Kansas City receivers, Bears QB's) and they absolutely need an overhaul immediately. They are shambolic against the pass, and no amount of protection for Matt Stafford will stop teams scoring almost at will against this team. Louis Delmas was a start, but bringing in ageing or average veterans such as Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry and Will James has simply compounded the problem. Eric Berry could solve their Strong Safety woes alongside Delmas, but I have to say that it's hard to put that need above the need for linemen.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1: Defensive Tackle
2: Wide Receiver
3: Defensive End
4: Offensive Tackle
5: Cornerback

The Bucs are not the worst team in the league by some stretch. A lot of their problems can be traced down to poor coaching and a lack of stability over the last few years. With Josh Freeman now pretty much entrenched as the starter and future of the team, look for better play without much addition next season. They lack true dominance on the defensive line, which as we all know was a hallmark of the Super Bowl winning team of 2002. They have never quite replaced Warren Sapp, Anthony McFarland, or Simeon Rice, so look for them to address either DT or DE with the number 3 pick overall. The draft is deep at those positions, and it would make more sense than trading for an established player with little to prove.

As mentioned previously, Donald Penn is an RFA, as is Jeremy Trueblood, so OT could become a position of huge need should the team lose both players. Of course, this is unlikely, but the team could still opt to address the position at some point this offseason and let one of those players leave if the right deal comes along.

The greatest position of need on offence is clearly at wide receiver, where Antonio Bryant spent much of the year injured after receiving the franchise tag in '09 and will likely leave in free agency. The roster looks like a WR graveyard, as Mark Bradley, Michael Clayton, Bryant and Maurice Stovall all attempt to prove themselves worthy of a big contract despite being first day picks at the start of their NFL careers. I think the Bucs could look to get a new player in to build chemistry with Freeman, though it should be noted that TE Kellen Winslow is as good a receiving TE as you will find in the game, so perhaps the team will attempt to retain Bryant if they don't like the very thin receivers in the draft and free agency.

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