I don't know about anyone else, but Mock Drafts frustrate me. Not so much the premise of them, and sure, come April they're fine. But we're a couple of days removed from the Super Bowl, almost a month past the College Football season finale, and yet we've been saturated with 'expert opinion' since mid November.
I can understand the clamour for such things this week. The NFL season is done, there's no action of note until August, and there's a gap that needs filling in the short term. The problem is, you look at Mock Drafts now, and they're really, really unlikely to represent what actually happens at the end of April.
The draft is still THREE MONTHS away. All of February, all of March, and then pretty much all of April too. Everything can change in that time. We've got Free Agency, Combines, Pro Days, all manner of events and activities, but it's somewhat acceptable to look to the Draft right now and make predictions.
Fair enough, a lot of the names at the top end of things won't change much, as elite talent is elite talent. Let me take you back almost an exact year, to February 6th of 2008, and Todd McShay's post-Super Bowl mock:
1. Miami Dolphins - Matt Ryan
2. St. Louis Rams - Chris Long
3. Atlanta Falcons - Darren McFadden
4. Oakland Raiders - Glenn Dorsey
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Jake Long
6. New York Jets - Vernon Gholston
7. New England Patriots - Leodis McKelvin
8. Baltimore Ravens - Sedrick Ellis
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Derrick Harvey
10. New Orleans Saints - Mike Jenkins
Now I like McShay, but even this 'expert' of his field only hit 2 of the top ten this early. Many of the names ended up flip-flopping around, but the omission of Joe Flacco from the entire first round is essentially the point I'm making. Flacco wowed pro scouts at the Senior Bowl and at the Combine and flew up draft boards in time to make it to Baltimore at number 18.
Continuing down the first round mock a year ago, only two selections (Ryan Clady to Denver and Felix Jones to Dallas) were nailed, with seven names dropping out of the first round by the time the league gathered at Radio City Music Hall. If Todd McShay, Director of College Football Scouting for Scouts Inc with over a decade of experience, can only muster a 12.5% success rate in February, everyone else should just give up.
Mock Drafts are all well and good, just....you know, give it some time before you compile them. They'll at least mean something in March. Right now, they just make people look silly.
