Denver could be in the QB market

Reports today suggest that the Denver Broncos have contacted the Philadelphia Eagles about a trade for Donovan Mcnabb. What does this mean for Kyle Orton and the Broncos?

If the rumours are true, firstly it should be noted that the Bills and Browns are also in the mix, as they are the other teams mentioned. This means that there's no guarantee by any means that either the Eagles would trade him only to the Broncos, or that McNabb would agree with Denver over Buffalo or Cleveland. However, one thing it does show is that the Broncos themselevs are not sold on Kyle Orton for next season.

Orton is a restricted free agent who the Broncos would likely be happy to keep him around at the right price. One option that will not be available for the Broncos is to place the lowest tender on Orton (around $1.01m) , for which they would have received a 4th round pick as compensation if he signed for another team. That would be relatively likely considering Orton's demonstration at the beginning of last season and in his initial stint in Chicago that he can win games in the NFL. Unfortunately, although Orton's basic salary was only scheduled to be $620,000 in 2009, he met playing time and performance incentives which mean he will likely have to be given a higher tender to meet the rule that stipulates a player in RFA must be offered a tender of 110% of his last year's salary.

A more realistic option is the higher tender of $1.54m which would net the Broncos a 2nd round pick in compensation. There is no telling what the market would be if that was the case, primarily because although he would be a good short term option for the price, the uncertainty over the potential work stoppage in 2011 may make teams wary of offering a player a long term deal in an unstable market. Remember that for Orton to move, he has to either believe that he will start in his new city, or have the long term security of a new deal. If one of the two is not in place, he could choose to hang around in Denver, even if they have moved for another QB, as he will be eligible for unrestricted free agency - and a much bigger payday - in 2011.

Some Broncos fans were sold on Orton as a franchise QB after the team's strong start this year, but the crushing disappointment of missing the playoffs after such promise has clearly left questions amongst those who are actually making the decisions. Coach Josh McDaniels attempted to swing a deal for Matt Cassel before he joined Kansas City, and he has already traded away Jay Cutler - who arguably has a great deal more talent than Orton ever will. None of this shows mych willingness on the part of the team to lock Orton up long term, and realistically that could well be the pivotal point. Orton has played almost his whole 5 year career on a tiny wage compared to what he could realitsically expect from a multi-year deal, so I would expect that even if the prospects of starting are not greatly enhanced, the increased security would be attractive for him.

One thing we can now do is chalk Denver up on the list of teams that would be interested in adding a QB at some point this offseason. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I had a list of 17 teams that would be interested in potentially be in the market for either a starter or a backup via free agency or the draft. Some are obvious (Oakland, St Louis) whilst others are dependent on a current member of the roster retiring (New Orleans, Minnesota).

There are other combinations of circumstance that could lead teams to look for a new signal caller this year, but at the very least it looks like Denver are looking for an upgrade.