Shortly after I posted an article breaking down the QB class of 2010 a few weeks back now, Florida QB Tim Tebow announced his participation in the Senior Bowl.
To say that Tebow's decision was a surprise is perhaps a stretch. He had previously shown no indication that he would take part, whilst commentators (including myself) were against the idea on the basis that it could highlight his weaknesses, rather than show off the skills that have already been displayed over 40 starts with the Gators. On the other hand, he has shown a ready desire to improve, and as he mentioned during an NFL Network interview on Tuesday, he just loves the idea of competing. In many ways, it was almost inevitable that as the consensus grew that he would decline to take part, he would go against that grain.
Unfortunately for Tebow, his decision has produced mixed results. Whilst his desire and competitive nature are not in question, his mechanics, footwork, and decision making will certainly be under even more scrutiny at Florida's pro-day in march after a poor performance under center in Mobile. Perhaps worst of all, sleeper prospects Tony Pike (Cincinnati) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) and Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) all performed better than Tebow over the course of the week, meaning that he now has far greater competition at the position than was expected. I'll summarise the emergence of those three QB's at the end of this post, but first, more on the man we will spend more time discussing in the next few months than any other.
Tebow's most obvious problem in drills this week was clearly his elongated, low-slung arm position when throwing the ball. There is not a team in the NFL that would consider him anything other than a liability with the football right now, something that he is aware of and that he made a conscious effort to rectify and improve over the week. The strides weren't great, but the willingness to change will have helped his stock slightly. During the game itself however, Tebow reverted back to his more comfortable style of throwing and that has to be another concern about a guy who needs to show that he is a quick learner to succeed at the next level.
A lot of people are incensed that a guy considered to be one of, if not the single greatest college players of all time is tabbed as a third rounder by some analysts. The best way of summarising why they are wrong is probably to watch Tebow's performance against the upper echelon of college talent that he faced over this week. The sad fact is that his athleticism is slightly exaggerated to the extent where people consider him to be a 'dual threat', but as we can see simply by watching his rushing plays last night, the talent against him when he reaches the next level will not allow him to rush with the success he achieved in college.
Tebow's footwork and overall discomfort in a pro-style offence were big red-flags to me. I particularly don't like his habit of turning his back to the play, and a factor that has rarely been discussed is that as a left hander, his 'best' lineman (ie: his left offensive tackle) will not be protecting his blind side, meaning that turning his back on defences could be even more of a problem in the NFL. There have been plenty of successful NFL lefties (Steve Young, Michael Vick, Boomer Esaison) but none of these players had the other problems that Tebow is facing as they prepared for the draft.
Saturday night may well have cemented to me that Tebow cannot be considered a first round pick by anyone who does not have an ulterior motive for seeing him drafted that highly. I add that caveat simply because there are a few franchises in Jacksonville, Buffalo and Oakland who could well buy into the 'cult of Tebow' and select him based on his popularity, rather than his footballing ability. All three are desperate for a 'face' of their franchise, and I would think that they would be among the first teams to consider him at some stage of the draft.
The problems during the game were there for everyone to see, and as I mentioned earlier, Pike, LeFevour and Robinson all made big strides (though of course not as long as Tebow's...) throughout the week. Pike is widely considered to be the most likely player to rise in mock drafts in the run up to the draft, so whilst his performance in the game itself was perhaps nothing to write home about, his overall impression over the week was that he can certainly make the transition to a pro-style offence a lot quicker than some other prospects. LeFevour (ranked joint 5th with Pike on Mike Mayock's draft board) looked good too, and made big strides by posting solid numbers on Saturday. His arm strength is better than advertised, and with a mistake-free performance he has likely improved his stock more than Zac Robinson, who despite his decent outing during the game, perhaps lacks the arm strength and accuracy needed to genuinely be considered as a mid-round pick.
With all of this in mind, how has this affected how I see the QB class of 2010? Well, it's important to remember that the two juniors who arguably could be first round picks, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen, didn't lose anything this week, so I think their status as the top two prospects is relatively assured entering the combine.
So entering February the QB class stands as follows:
1 Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
2 Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
3 Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
4 Tim Tebow (Florida)
5 Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6 Colt McCoy (Texas)
Of note in recent weeks is Bradford's rise, with it now looking fairly likely that a team in the top 10 will take a shot at him. Clausen's stock in turn must rise on the basis that if Bradford is gone, then other teams looking at QB's will perhaps consider him. Personally I consider him a second round talent, but as I have pointed out numerous times: If you're convinced that a guy can be your franchise QB, there is no such thing as a reach. Similarly though, I maintain that if you are not high on a guy, the worst thing you can do is saddle your franchise with a highly paid young player who will likely prevent you drafting another QB for a number of years. Ironically, I would consider Clausen's former ND team mate Brady Quinn to be an excellent example of a team drafting a player who they were never entirely sold on.
Colt McCoy is higher on Mike Mayock's board than Tim Tebow, which I find intriguing because I generally tend to think along the same lines as him as far as the transition from college to the pros at most positions. Mayock watches a lot of film, but most importantly, he pays a lot of attention to the pro game too, which is something that perhaps explains why some other experts are wildly off with their mock drafts. McCoy for me doesn't possess the intangibles and the accuracy to be a franchise QB in the NFL, and it seems more likely that he will go to a team as a backup and have a Colt Brennan-esque life of never quite being considered for the top gig.
My final thoughts go back to Tim Tebow. Sure some scouts are still curious about 'slash' players, but an NFL QB is built from the head downwards. You can be a great runner, but unless you can throw the ball, manage the game, lead your team, you will not make your way to the very top. Tim Tebow is not even a great runner. He's a good guy, with an excellent work ethic and the chance to one day play in some capacity in the NFL. This week has reaffirmed my position though, that a team selecting him should have a guy who they trust for the next two years minimum before they can rely on Tebow.
To put the concept of athleticism at the QB position into perspective, I'll give you the five of the best QB's of the 00's: Manning, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees. If you were building your ideal QB from these hall of fame calibre players, tell me which guy would you take the running skills from?
Exactly.
Sunday 31 January 2010
Monday 25 January 2010
Saints clinch NFC championship
And for the first time since 1993, there are two number one seeds in the Superbowl. An enthralling game that both teams tried their best to lose ended with Garrett Hartley's kick in OT. There are plenty of reasons for the Vikings essentially throwing the game away, some of which are unlucky, but in many ways, you may consider that any team that fumbles the ball as much as they did tonight can't have too many complaints about officiating.
There will be a huge inquest into the loss, but in the end, it's hard not to like the Saints. They're a great story for a city and a team that have had their fair share of lows in recent history. It's going to be a huge task for them to take on the Colts and win, but it would be a man with a stone cold heart that didn't acknowledge that if any team apart from their own had to win the big one, it might as well be New Orleans.
There will be a huge inquest into the loss, but in the end, it's hard not to like the Saints. They're a great story for a city and a team that have had their fair share of lows in recent history. It's going to be a huge task for them to take on the Colts and win, but it would be a man with a stone cold heart that didn't acknowledge that if any team apart from their own had to win the big one, it might as well be New Orleans.
Sunday 24 January 2010
Jets fans get a harsh lesson from Peyton
So the Indianapolis Colts have defeated the Jets, barring an improbable comeback. This week I've been engaged in debate about my prediction of 30 points for the Colts against what has been an excellent Jets defence over the course of this season.
Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.
Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.
One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.
I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.
The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.
Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.
Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.
One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.
I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.
The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.
Wednesday 20 January 2010
Superbowl prediction: Minnesota vs Indianapolis
Last week I went 4/4 on the divisional playoff games and, typically, didn't bother putting my money where my mouth was. That's the law of gambling right there: If you have a hunch and don't put money on it, it will definitely come off.
This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:
NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.
The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.
Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.
Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28
AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?
This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.
Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.
This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.
An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.
The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.
New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30
This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:
NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.
The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.
Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.
Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28
AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?
This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.
Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.
This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.
An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.
The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.
New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30
Monday 18 January 2010
Ryan's zero coach of the year votes a mystery
Earlier last week I spoke to a friend whilst inebriated beyond reasonable comprehension. Despite my ramblings about the NFL being hilariously 'out there' (How about a college coach for the Seahawks? Broncos the most likely team to play the 49ers at Wembley?) I did hit upon one subject that I think was worth dwelling on further - If the Jets win two postseason games, how about Rex Ryan for coach of the year?
The fact that Ryan got zero votes staggers me. The Jets were frankly not in great shape when he took over, and he has instilled an air of confidence that we simply have not seen from the Jets in recent years. Despite this, Ryan came away from this year's voting with the square root of... something impolite. I'm no Jets fan (as you will see tomorrow) but Ryan deserves a hell of a lot of credit for his approach to a franchise that could well have stagnated after the Favre fiasco.
To put it another way: He has achieved more with Mark Sanchez than Mike Smith did in his first year as coach of Atlanta with then-rookie Matt Ryan. If that warrants zero votes, then something isn't right in the process.
The fact that Ryan got zero votes staggers me. The Jets were frankly not in great shape when he took over, and he has instilled an air of confidence that we simply have not seen from the Jets in recent years. Despite this, Ryan came away from this year's voting with the square root of... something impolite. I'm no Jets fan (as you will see tomorrow) but Ryan deserves a hell of a lot of credit for his approach to a franchise that could well have stagnated after the Favre fiasco.
To put it another way: He has achieved more with Mark Sanchez than Mike Smith did in his first year as coach of Atlanta with then-rookie Matt Ryan. If that warrants zero votes, then something isn't right in the process.
Phil Simms drops the F-Bomb on live TV
Oh Dear Phil!
I maintain, it is still better than Joe Theisman asking 'Coach Gibbs' if he should wipe his ass every 8 minutes. Yes Joe, you should, because otherwise you're going to walk around with a half pound of crap in your pants as well as your mouth.
I maintain, it is still better than Joe Theisman asking 'Coach Gibbs' if he should wipe his ass every 8 minutes. Yes Joe, you should, because otherwise you're going to walk around with a half pound of crap in your pants as well as your mouth.
Saturday 9 January 2010
NFL draft 2010 - The Quarterbacks
The NFL draft is soon going to move into focus. Even now, people are speculating that the Redskins may take Jimmy Clausen as their next franchise QB. Tim Tebow remains almost unclassifiable, despite his record with Florida. Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, who Tebow beat to the Heisman in 2007, are the other big name prospects entering the draft this year. I've been discussing this with friends for some time, so here's my take on the quarterbacks in the NFL draft 2010.
First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.
The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.
Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.
Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.
McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.
Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.
The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.
Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.
Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.
That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.
There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.
The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.
Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.
There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.
If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:
Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.
Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.
Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.
Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.
Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.
First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.
The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.
Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.
Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.
McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.
Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.
The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.
Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.
Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.
That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.
There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.
The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.
Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.
There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.
If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:
Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.
Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.
Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.
Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.
Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.
Tuesday 5 January 2010
Broncos the most likely team to play 49ers at Wembley
Well, it's good news for San Francisco fans in britain - the team looks well set to play in one of the Wembley games this year. Who will be their opponent? Well since Philadelphia are on the schedule, they are less likely than Dallas to go to Wembley on the basis of their lack of a Jerry Jones-style egocentric character, so my money is firmly on Denver.
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Denver
Oakland
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
Philadelphia
As New Orleans and Tampa have already played in Europe, and the Raiders are a rival team. the only logical choices are the Eagles and Broncos. Of course, this is assuming the 49ers are the home team, as I believe they will be...
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Denver
Oakland
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
Philadelphia
As New Orleans and Tampa have already played in Europe, and the Raiders are a rival team. the only logical choices are the Eagles and Broncos. Of course, this is assuming the 49ers are the home team, as I believe they will be...
Monday 4 January 2010
The Offensive Line NFL dictionary
Here are the unofficial additions to the NFL dictionary 2009. If you have any suggestions, you can send them on twitter
JaMarcus (Jah-mar-cuss)
To expend more energy by not trying, than you would by simply being competent at a great job.
"He's spent the last 3 hours JaMarcussing around rather than helping us moisturise these damn playboy bunnies - Be a dear and hold still could you?"
Cribbs (Kribs)
Army slang for a long range missile capable of destroying your much better equipped opponents, and which therefore must be used in every way but the manner intended.
"See, we were going to use the Cribbs to win our next war, but we decided that if we used it as ballast in a submarine, then sold it to Iran, we could buy more of these here zeppelins!"
Polian (Pole-ee-ann)
To refuse an attempt at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in favour of trying to accomplish something you have already done once.
"He only needed to win one more hand for a shot at $1m, but he Polianed it and went to play bingo again"
Welkered (Well-ker-d)
To vindicate a Polian.
"Turns out he had a pair of twos, he'd have been Welkered if he carried on. Still, looks like he's doing ok in the bingo..."
McDaniels (Mac-dan-ee-ells)
High pitched screech that eventually wears down all in earshot.
"Protestors have complained that the new runway will leave many local residents unable to sleep because of intolerable McDaniels emitting from aircraft taking off"
Zorn (Zorn)
To become disinterested in one's grisly demise.
"I think after we cut off his toes he just kind of Zorned out"
Cutler (Cut-ler)
Talented employee of organisation who is given poor tools to work with, but is expected to perform better than the previous incumbent.
"He might have been good in the kitchen, but lets see how he manages if we cut his arms off! I bet he's a Cutler, you can see it in his chin"
Favre (Far-v-re)
To cuckold your boss in public.
"You wouldn't think he could still Favre like that at his age. I don't think she's complaining though. Hey Brad, isn't that your wif... oh. Why are you sobbing?"
Houshing (Hoosh-ing)
The act of talking up your ability whilst simultaneously proving yourself incorrect.
"He reckons he's going to kick our ass at pool, but I think he's just houshing - look, he's just racked them up on the foosball table..."
Offensive Tackle (Off-en-sive Tack-el)
Speciality of the Oakland Raiders
"And that's now 4 offensive tackles for Zach Miller, all coming off JaMarcus Russell interceptions..."
JaMarcus (Jah-mar-cuss)
To expend more energy by not trying, than you would by simply being competent at a great job.
"He's spent the last 3 hours JaMarcussing around rather than helping us moisturise these damn playboy bunnies - Be a dear and hold still could you?"
Cribbs (Kribs)
Army slang for a long range missile capable of destroying your much better equipped opponents, and which therefore must be used in every way but the manner intended.
"See, we were going to use the Cribbs to win our next war, but we decided that if we used it as ballast in a submarine, then sold it to Iran, we could buy more of these here zeppelins!"
Polian (Pole-ee-ann)
To refuse an attempt at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in favour of trying to accomplish something you have already done once.
"He only needed to win one more hand for a shot at $1m, but he Polianed it and went to play bingo again"
Welkered (Well-ker-d)
To vindicate a Polian.
"Turns out he had a pair of twos, he'd have been Welkered if he carried on. Still, looks like he's doing ok in the bingo..."
McDaniels (Mac-dan-ee-ells)
High pitched screech that eventually wears down all in earshot.
"Protestors have complained that the new runway will leave many local residents unable to sleep because of intolerable McDaniels emitting from aircraft taking off"
Zorn (Zorn)
To become disinterested in one's grisly demise.
"I think after we cut off his toes he just kind of Zorned out"
Cutler (Cut-ler)
Talented employee of organisation who is given poor tools to work with, but is expected to perform better than the previous incumbent.
"He might have been good in the kitchen, but lets see how he manages if we cut his arms off! I bet he's a Cutler, you can see it in his chin"
Favre (Far-v-re)
To cuckold your boss in public.
"You wouldn't think he could still Favre like that at his age. I don't think she's complaining though. Hey Brad, isn't that your wif... oh. Why are you sobbing?"
Houshing (Hoosh-ing)
The act of talking up your ability whilst simultaneously proving yourself incorrect.
"He reckons he's going to kick our ass at pool, but I think he's just houshing - look, he's just racked them up on the foosball table..."
Offensive Tackle (Off-en-sive Tack-el)
Speciality of the Oakland Raiders
"And that's now 4 offensive tackles for Zach Miller, all coming off JaMarcus Russell interceptions..."
Sunday 3 January 2010
Texans secure a winning season at last
Anyone who knows me will be aware of my deep-rooted love for the Chicago Bears, which began way back in what Alan Partridge's friend Bono would describe as 'the nineteen-eightieees'. My favourite player was actually Kevin Butler for many many years, which is slightly embarrassing, as it was only when I got to the age of 12 that I realised that having a kicker as your hero was not something you admitted.
Fast-forward 15 years and I'm still a Bears nut (as many a baffled girlfriend will testify, usually at 5am on a tuesday morning), but I have had a soft spot for the NFL's newest franchise, the Houston Texans, since their induction into the league. After seven seasons, it has finally become acceptable to admit this further bizarre affiliation to my inglorious NFL resumé.
The Houston Texans have a winning season.
The most important part of the whole equation will not be decided until the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, and Denver Broncos finish their games (the Texans best hopes are probably that the Broncos and Jets lose, although I have a strange feeling about Oakland today, maybe they can get an upset), but the likelihood is that the team will keep coach Gary Kubiak around for 2010, which will be good for continuity. It isn't good for the media commentators who aren't fans of his, but Kubiak has quietly overseen some solid drafts in Houston, and deserves more credit than he is getting.
Actually, on that point, the Texans have done pretty well in recent years even before Kubiak. The Mario Williams pick is a feather in the cap of former G.M. Charlie Casserly, and with starters DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, Zac Diles, Steve Slaton, Jacoby Jones all coming in recent years, the team has done well. This year LB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin have also shown they will be starters in the league.
Perhaps the only disappointments have been in the linemen and in the secondary. The team lacks a bruising DT to compliment Amobi Akoye, and some of the OT's drafted have looked slightly out of their depth at times. Patience may be the best virtue, but it will again be a draft where the team invests in defensive backs.
For now though, the Texans will be hoping they can cap the team's first winning season with their first trip to the postseason.
Fast-forward 15 years and I'm still a Bears nut (as many a baffled girlfriend will testify, usually at 5am on a tuesday morning), but I have had a soft spot for the NFL's newest franchise, the Houston Texans, since their induction into the league. After seven seasons, it has finally become acceptable to admit this further bizarre affiliation to my inglorious NFL resumé.
The Houston Texans have a winning season.
The most important part of the whole equation will not be decided until the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, and Denver Broncos finish their games (the Texans best hopes are probably that the Broncos and Jets lose, although I have a strange feeling about Oakland today, maybe they can get an upset), but the likelihood is that the team will keep coach Gary Kubiak around for 2010, which will be good for continuity. It isn't good for the media commentators who aren't fans of his, but Kubiak has quietly overseen some solid drafts in Houston, and deserves more credit than he is getting.
Actually, on that point, the Texans have done pretty well in recent years even before Kubiak. The Mario Williams pick is a feather in the cap of former G.M. Charlie Casserly, and with starters DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, Zac Diles, Steve Slaton, Jacoby Jones all coming in recent years, the team has done well. This year LB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin have also shown they will be starters in the league.
Perhaps the only disappointments have been in the linemen and in the secondary. The team lacks a bruising DT to compliment Amobi Akoye, and some of the OT's drafted have looked slightly out of their depth at times. Patience may be the best virtue, but it will again be a draft where the team invests in defensive backs.
For now though, the Texans will be hoping they can cap the team's first winning season with their first trip to the postseason.
Wide-Right
Wide-Right is being renamed as 'The Offensive Line'.
As you may or may not be aware, the domain was essentially car-jacked from under my nose (well, it was 'virtually' car-jacked, but you get the idea) and is currently being used as an advert for penis enlargement, or possibly for unspecified 'meds'. Either way, it's impractical for me to continue with the wide-right banner and website. so the only alternative is a complete re-brand, which fits quite well with my ideas for the future.
I'm going to develop this site for the next six months or so, and get a good groundwork in place for September, when I intend to commit a lot of time to it. I'm also headed to the U.S in June for four months, which will be an experience if nothing else.
So keep an eye on things. I'm hooking this up to twitter, where you can follow me, and I'll be trying to make the whole thing as easy to read as possible. Any suggestions, just drop me a tweet at www.twitter.com/ShaunLowrie
Shaun
As you may or may not be aware, the domain was essentially car-jacked from under my nose (well, it was 'virtually' car-jacked, but you get the idea) and is currently being used as an advert for penis enlargement, or possibly for unspecified 'meds'. Either way, it's impractical for me to continue with the wide-right banner and website. so the only alternative is a complete re-brand, which fits quite well with my ideas for the future.
I'm going to develop this site for the next six months or so, and get a good groundwork in place for September, when I intend to commit a lot of time to it. I'm also headed to the U.S in June for four months, which will be an experience if nothing else.
So keep an eye on things. I'm hooking this up to twitter, where you can follow me, and I'll be trying to make the whole thing as easy to read as possible. Any suggestions, just drop me a tweet at www.twitter.com/ShaunLowrie
Shaun
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