Showing posts with label Philadelphia Eagles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philadelphia Eagles. Show all posts

Saturday, 27 March 2010

McNabb trade a big gamble for Reid and Heckert

There is a consensus building that the Philadelphia Eagles will trade Donovan McNabb in the next few weeks, before turning their franchise over to Kevin Kolb. Is this the right decision?

First of all, I am a big fan of McNabb. Two years ago this same situation would have resulted in fans clamouring for him to get out of town, because he has never quite convinced Eagles fans that he is the guy that will bring them a championship. In the last couple of years, however, he has responded well to the indignity of being benched midway through a game and played better football as a result.

On the other hand, the clock is very much ticking, and McNabb is no longer in his prime. Even with quarterbacks playing longer than ever, McNabb can't be guaranteed to play longer than two more years. Now consider that Kevin Kolb has shown flashes in relief and in pre-season that he is ready to replace McNabb, and you have an interesting quandary for Eagles GM Tom Heckert and coach Andy Reid. Should they trade McNabb now and cash in while they still can? Or would they be better off holding on to McNabb and giving him one or two last shots to win the team a Super Bowl?

The first question is whether the team believs in Kolb to maintain a level of respectability next season. The Eagles fanbase is notorious for it's impatience, so if Kolb starts very slowly there could be an issue. Not only that, but it could be exaggerated further if McNabb is playing well for a new team. Imagine how silly Heckert and Reid are going to look if McNabb takes a perennially losing franchise like Buffalo or Oakland, and turns them into playoff contenders? Maybe it's a long shot, but it's not out of the question. If it happens, they will both be out of jobs.

McNabb's trade value is certainly not as strong as first thought. Part of this is due to the public's lack of awareness about draft pick value in the modern era. The time was that a starting QB was a no-brainer to command a first round pick. Hell, Rick Mirer went for two a first rounder and was then traded within a year. It was just an accepted risk in the nineties. The market has changed in the last ten years, especially as the financial climate has left more teams questioning the value they receive from top picks.

All of a sudden you have players valued at a second rounder who are brought in to start and be the 'franchise' QB, such as McNabb, Matt Cassell in KC, and Matt Schaub in Houston. Where does this leave a player with questionable impact such as Michael Vick? Interesting thought. The general consensus amongst fans is that McNabb and Kolb are worth first rounders, whilst Vick is worth a second. The reality is that few teams will pay a first for a guy who could be done in a year (McNabb), or who hasn't proven himself (Kolb).

The Eagles figure to trade McNabb and extend Kolb in the same way that Green Bay turned Brett Favre loose in favour of Aaron Rodgers two years ago. There has to be a degree of faith in the front office assessment of Kolb for this to work. The reason it worked for the Packers was that they committed to Rodgers, but they also knew that they wouldn't necessarily need to extend him in his first year of starting. Unfortunately, the Eagles have a limited time frame to deal with Kolb's contract. This could lead to decisions being rushed and mistakes being made.

If it was me? I'd probably trade McNabb too, regardless of the trade return. It's the option that makes most sense if you believe in Kevin Kolb as a starter, because after this year he is sure to walk after another year spent on the bench. Where does that leave Philadelphia? Arguably in a bigger mess and tied to McNabb in the twilight of his career. In fact, if they don't trade McNabb, they will be spending their own high draft picks on a QB next year.

Monday, 8 February 2010

Denver could be in the QB market

Reports today suggest that the Denver Broncos have contacted the Philadelphia Eagles about a trade for Donovan Mcnabb. What does this mean for Kyle Orton and the Broncos?

If the rumours are true, firstly it should be noted that the Bills and Browns are also in the mix, as they are the other teams mentioned. This means that there's no guarantee by any means that either the Eagles would trade him only to the Broncos, or that McNabb would agree with Denver over Buffalo or Cleveland. However, one thing it does show is that the Broncos themselevs are not sold on Kyle Orton for next season.

Orton is a restricted free agent who the Broncos would likely be happy to keep him around at the right price. One option that will not be available for the Broncos is to place the lowest tender on Orton (around $1.01m) , for which they would have received a 4th round pick as compensation if he signed for another team. That would be relatively likely considering Orton's demonstration at the beginning of last season and in his initial stint in Chicago that he can win games in the NFL. Unfortunately, although Orton's basic salary was only scheduled to be $620,000 in 2009, he met playing time and performance incentives which mean he will likely have to be given a higher tender to meet the rule that stipulates a player in RFA must be offered a tender of 110% of his last year's salary.

A more realistic option is the higher tender of $1.54m which would net the Broncos a 2nd round pick in compensation. There is no telling what the market would be if that was the case, primarily because although he would be a good short term option for the price, the uncertainty over the potential work stoppage in 2011 may make teams wary of offering a player a long term deal in an unstable market. Remember that for Orton to move, he has to either believe that he will start in his new city, or have the long term security of a new deal. If one of the two is not in place, he could choose to hang around in Denver, even if they have moved for another QB, as he will be eligible for unrestricted free agency - and a much bigger payday - in 2011.

Some Broncos fans were sold on Orton as a franchise QB after the team's strong start this year, but the crushing disappointment of missing the playoffs after such promise has clearly left questions amongst those who are actually making the decisions. Coach Josh McDaniels attempted to swing a deal for Matt Cassel before he joined Kansas City, and he has already traded away Jay Cutler - who arguably has a great deal more talent than Orton ever will. None of this shows mych willingness on the part of the team to lock Orton up long term, and realistically that could well be the pivotal point. Orton has played almost his whole 5 year career on a tiny wage compared to what he could realitsically expect from a multi-year deal, so I would expect that even if the prospects of starting are not greatly enhanced, the increased security would be attractive for him.

One thing we can now do is chalk Denver up on the list of teams that would be interested in adding a QB at some point this offseason. I mentioned a few weeks ago that I had a list of 17 teams that would be interested in potentially be in the market for either a starter or a backup via free agency or the draft. Some are obvious (Oakland, St Louis) whilst others are dependent on a current member of the roster retiring (New Orleans, Minnesota).

There are other combinations of circumstance that could lead teams to look for a new signal caller this year, but at the very least it looks like Denver are looking for an upgrade.

Sunday, 23 November 2008

Donovan McNabb still Eagles starter - for now

Tonight, the headlines will be dominated by the situation around Philadelphia Quarterback Donovan McNabb, who was benched in favour of Kevin Kolb by coach Andy Reid at halftime in their matchup with Baltimore. It's only fair that I've given Reid a chance to respond to the media before we take a look at McNabb's future in Philadelphia and ask these three crucial questions:



So is McNabb to blame for the Eagles' problems?

Well... he's not NOT to blame, if that makes sense. McNabb's play has been patchy at best this season, and he is on course for his worst statistical year since at least 2003. On the other hand, the team as a whole has underperformed, with the most noticeable problem being the lack of a running game to help McNabb on offence. Brian Westbrook is being shut down on the ground, but unlike previous years, Andy Reid seems reluctant to force the run on defences. Instead, a deranged habit is forming of calling passing plays at poor times, such as this week's game against Baltimore, when Philly decided to throw on 3rd and 1 during the first half, resulting in McNabb being intercepted while trying to throw a deep strike.

Of course, that's another problem - McNabb's decision making. Despite the poor play call, McNabb probably made a rash call going for the long ball to DeSean Jackson, when Westbrook was open for a quick pass that would have netted the first and prolonged the drive. Of course, it's easy to say that with hindsight, but how often do we laud a QB or coordinator for having the balls to go long at those moments, only to castigate them when it all goes wrong?

I asked for Philly fans to give their opinion yesterday, and the majority seem to think that the system itself needs changing, rather than this simply being about how well one player is doing. Despite promising to get Westbrook more involved last week, the coaching staff must take some of the blame for his - and in turn, the team's - lack of production.

How does McNabb's benching affect the team in 2008?

Reid named McNabb starter for the game against Arizona on Thursday night, but would he have done so if the team had a full week to prepare? As we pointed out on Saturday, a short week leaves very little time to prepare both mentally and physically for your next opponent. Kevin Kolb's performance was equally unimpressive, and it would have been an odd decision to essentially give up on the Eagles' 2008 season in week 12 - which is what going with Kolb would signify to many people both inside and outside the organisation.

But being benched could have repercussions for McNabb. Will he come back stronger and prove Reid wrong on Thursday? That must be the hope, but he is now on the shortest of leashes, knowing that his coach has broken one of the barriers that stood between McNabb and his eventual successor. Now, if McNabb struggles for a half, we can expect to see Kolb again, purely because Reid needs to associate himself with the new guy if he wants to continue coaching in Philly. Remember that Reid and McNabb's legacies are intertwined, and since 1999, this has been the case. If McNabb leaves in the off season, it may also seem like a perfect time to cut Reid loose for the Eagles and firmly establish a 'new era'.

The one thing that struck me about the benching on Sunday was this: The team was down three points. If they'd been down 0-17, perhaps you could have understood the 'all or nothing' approach that Reid took, but down 3? What a huge statement to make, because whatever we all say about this ridiculous situation, it comes down to this:

Andy Reid didn't trust Donovan McNabb to overturn a 3 point deficit

There, I even bolded it for you. Did he think Kolb had a better shot? Probably not, but my theory is this: Reid knows that benching McNabb and shoehorning Kolb under center may be his only chance to stay on for a few more years, and what better chance to win than in a low scoring game? I can guarantee that this morning's headlines would have looked a hell of a lot different if Kolb had managed to throw adequately and the Eagles had churned out a scrappy victory.

One place where McNabb does have support is in the locker room. He is a personable, intelligent guy who has many friends both in Philadelphia and beyond. Despite what Terrell Owens may think, many players sympathise with McNabb, who has rarely been given a supporting cast to help him in his quest to bring a Superbowl to the city of brotherly love. If you want to know why he's so highly thought of, just watch McNabb show encouragement to Kolb and his teammates despite his own public humiliation yesterday.

So will McNabb still be in Philadelphia next year?

No.

To summarise, the last few years have seen countless off season trade rumours fly around, but McNabb was always the unquestioned starter for this team, and there was not a particularly good option to replace him on the roster until Kolb was drafted. Even now, the second year player has shown little that suggests he is a legitamate threat to McNabb in a training camp competition, so it's likely that the Eagles will opt to dump the veteran and give Kolb the chance to assert himself as an unquestioned starter next season.

As I've already pointed out, this also likely means Reid will follow him out of the door, unless Kolb makes enough progress in the next few weeks to suggest that ditching the head coach would be detrimental to his progression as a player.

In conclusion, both McNabb and Reid will likely be out by the time the 2009 season begins. You have to feel sorry for McNabb, who has been vilified by people within Philadelphia for years now, and as I mentioned, sorely deprived of help on offence. As someone with no bias either for or against the Eagles, I'd probably point to the one season that McNabb had a genuine playmaker (Owens) on his team, and ask why statistically, it was far and away the best season of his career, even with no running back getting over 1000yds.

Sunday, 24 August 2008

2008 Previews: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles had what was considered by many to be a disappointing season last year, finishing last in the NFC East with an 8-8 record. However, the true story of their season could have been far different appears to be one of bad luck. 5 of their defeats came by 8 points or fewer (2 of which came without start quarterback Donovan McNabb). McNabb is hoping to enter the 2008 season fully fit after being rushed back from an ACL injury for 2007 which had an adverse effect on his performance.

The Eagles will strive to rise to the top of the NFC once again this year, and they have every
reason to be optimistic with a fit McNabb and Brian Westbrook in the backfield.

Andy Reid

Reid enters his ninth full season in charge of the Eagles hoping to build on the success of previous years that has seen him emerge as one of the best coaches in Eagles history. His 96 wins, .608 win percentage, and 8 postseason wins rank him as the best - and 4 NFC Championship games in that timespan speaks volumes for the way he has moulded this team. But the one thing missing from his resumé is that Superbowl ring, and he will see this season as another opportunity given the talent at his fingertips.

Reid is in an exclusive number of 2 (with Bill Belichick) NFL coaches who have the power of being in charge of player transactions. Whilst Tom Heckert also has a say, Reid ultimately makes the final call - and he was at the heart of the move to bring in Terrell Owens in 2004, as well as drafting McNabb in 1999. He is a consumate man-manager, and has the ability to bring the best out of what he is given; he has sent 19 players to the Pro Bowl, none of whom had previously gone to Hawaii.

Draft Class of 2008

2 - Trevor Laws, DT, Notre Dame
2 - DeSean Jackson, WR, California
3 - Bryan Smith, LB, McNeese State
4 - Mike McGlynn, T, Pittsburgh
4 - Quintin Demps, DB, Texas-El-Paso
4 - Jake Ikegwuonu, DB, Wisconsin
6 - Mike Gibson, T, California
6 - Joe Mays, LB, North Dakota State
6 - Andy Studebaker, LB, Wheaton
7 - King Dunlap, T, Auburn

Most critics felt the draft went well for the Eagles, who crucially picked up the playmaking receiver McNabb had asked for in DeSean Jackson. Trevor Laws will certainly help on the defensive side of the ball in the Eagles 4-3 defence, and Mike McGlynn's impressive Senior Bowl bodes well for him as a potential replacement for the aging William Thomas. They also acquired an extra 1st round pick for the 2009 draft.

Strong Side

The obvious strength for the Eagles should come from quarterback Donovan McNabb. Despite battling yet more injuries last season he threw for the best completion percentage of his career, going past the 3,000 yard barrier in the process. McNabb has managed to adapt his game to deal with his lessening mobility and remains one of the best QBs in the league. Unfortunately for him, his number one receiver is going to miss the start of the season with a sports hernia. Kevin Curtis caught for over 1,000 yards last year and his absence will be a blow. Tight End L.J. Smith, who signed as a Franchise Player in the off season, will have to pick up some of the slack. Running Back Brian Westbrook will undoubtedly deliver on the ground, and he could form a dangerous partnership with the recently acquired Lorenzo Booker.

Defensively the Eagles have a strong look about them also. Despite losing Jevon Kearse and Takeo Spikes, Andy Reid has brought in the excellent Asante Samuel and Chris Clemons to fill the voids, with youngsters such as Trevor Laws hoping to make an impact as well.

Weak Side

Like the other teams in the NFC East, the Eagles have no glaring weaknesses. The only real question marks hanging over them involve injuries - can McNabb and Smith remain fit for 16 games and the playoffs? If they can, the Eagles can expect to challenge not only for the Division but the Conference as well. Their ageing offensive line should stay together for another season, although once again a key injury or two there and Reid's men might struggle. Indeed, injury has already struck down receiver Kevin Curtis for a number of weeks, leaving the Eagles short of a WR to start the season.

Major Transactions

Ins

CB - Asante Samuel (NE)
DE - Chris Clemons (Oak)
FB - Dan Klecko (Ind)
LB - Rocky Boiman (Ind)
TE - Kris Wilson (KC)
RB - Lorenzo Booker(Mia)

Outs

DE - Jevon Kearse (Ten)
LB - Takeo Spikes (SF)

Schedule

1 Sun, Sep 7 St. Louis 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field
2 Mon, Sep 15 @ Dallas 8:30 PM Texas Stadium
3 Sun, Sep 21 Pittsburgh 4:15 PM Lincoln Financial Field
4 Sun, Sep 28 @ Chicago 8:15 PM Soldier Field
5 Sun, Oct 5 Washington 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field
6 Sun, Oct 12 @ San Francisco 4:15 PM Monster Park
7 BYE WEEK
8 Sun, Oct 26 Atlanta 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field
9 Sun, Nov 2 @ Seattle 4:15 PM Qwest Field
10 Sun, Nov 9 NY Giants 8:15 PM Lincoln Financial Field
11 Sun, Nov 16 @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM Paul Brown Stadium
12 Sun, Nov 23 @ Baltimore 1:00 PM M&T Bank Stadium
13 Thu, Nov 27 Arizona 8:15 PM Lincoln Financial Field
14 Sun, Dec 7 @ NY Giants 1:00 PM Giants Stadium
15 Mon, Dec 15 Cleveland 8:30 PM Lincoln Financial Field
16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Washington 1:00 PM FedEx Field
17 Sun, Dec 28 Dallas 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field

Wide-Right's View

The Eagles have been perennial contenders under Andy Reid, and that trend is not about to reverse now. 8-8 last year was disappointing, but it was clear that they were a handful of plays away from being 11-5. They look stronger this year, not least because McNabb appears to finally be fit again. Their schedule is also relatively kind, with road trips to the 49ers, Ravens, and Bengals all looking winnable on paper. But it could so easily turn into a repeat of last season's heartbreak. The lack of a true gamebreaker, especially at Receiver, means that their games are likely to be on a knife-edge, and it will take the extra effort to turn some of the losses into wins if they are to get into the postseason.

The season will hinge on the 6 Divisional match-ups starting with week 2 in Dallas, and ending with 3 of the last 4 games against fellow NFC East opposition. A positive record will surely give them a chance of superceding favourites Dallas for what would be their 6th divisional crown in 10 years.

Prediction for 2008

The Eagles will be as confident as any of the 4 teams in their division of reaching the play-offs, which will make 2008 one of the more interesting seasons of recent times in terms of the regular season battle. Outside of their divisional games, the Eagles appear to have a schedule that should provide them with enough wins to challenge for at least the Wild Card, and if they were to go 3-3 or 4-2 in the NFC East then you would expect to see the Eagles back in the postseason.

However, they are one of the few teams that does have questionmarks in vital positions, not least at quarterback, where the fitness of McNabb has been in doubt for the past 3 years. Combine that with the injury to Kevin Curtis and offensively Philadelphia could be without two key components to their offense. Injury-free, the Eagles should contend, but that would have been the case last season as well.

I would expect them to reach the play-offs, although the Wild Card is a more realistic route for them than winning the division.

Useful Links


Official Website
Depth Chart
Fansite

Sunday, 22 June 2008

Jevon Kearse arrested

Jevon Kearse, the Tennessee Titans Defensive End who returns to Nashville this year after a career hiatus in Philadelphia, has beeen arrested for DUI.

Kearse actually appeared on local radio last Thursday, where he made the grand claim that he will get double digit sacks in 2008/9. While there's no knock on his ability to get to the QB, his penchant for the physio room will likely rule out that achievement.