The Dick Jauron Debate

So, the Buffalo Bills have failed to break their post-season drought again. Next September they'll enter the season knowing failure will complete a decade of despair for upstate New Yorkers, desperate for some success. Desperate even for a winning season for the first time since 2004, the hot topic in Buffalo is whether Dick Jauron should remain as Head Coach.

Let's make it clear off the bat - Bills fans are a little different to your average fan. They've already got to deal with a mad pre-disposition for supporting the team in the first place, but history and events continue to crap on them time and again. Even in this, the 2008 season, the Bills have lost on Monday Night Football due to a last second kick for the second season in a row, and chucked away a late lead at home to the New York Jets to lose to a fumbled football. A 4-0 start disintegrated with 8 defeats in the next 11 outings, and it looks likely Jauron will record his third 7-9 season in a row. So should he continue as Head Coach, and does he deserve the much-rumoured three-year extension to his current deal?

It's easy to look at statistics and make your mind up. Many a detractor will point out that the Bills sit 25th in overall offense and 20th in total defense, neither unit showing enough to be a credible player in the league. Only three teams have put up fewer sacks than the anaemic Bills pass rush and only four have intercepted fewer balls than a secondary which just a few years ago was one of the outstanding units in the league in takeaways, with many of the personnel remaining.

Sometimes it's not as simple as numbers though. Jauron has landed a young roster, one of the youngest in the NFL. A roster that was tested in 2007 by thirteen season-ending injuries, and yet the Bills ran the playoff chase far closer than they should have. Sports writers across the nation called Jauron's name for Coach of the Year consideration. So what's changed a year later?

For a multitude of reasons, after starting 4-0 the Bills have lost their way. Maybe it's that the teams they beat en route to their best start in a decade and a half are now a combined 15-45. Maybe it was when Trent Edwards came crashing down to Earth in Arizona and missed two weeks with a concussion. It's more than certainly attributable in some manner to poor play-calling and poor execution, but how much can you level at Jauron himself? Does the buck stop with the Head Coach because of the failures of the staff he employs or the players to whom he's been entrusted?

He certainly took the fall for the abominable defeat to the Jets in Week 15, claiming it was his call to run a passing play instead of a run when common sense and logic suggested the hand-off to Marshawn Lynch was the play of choice. And yet, the aftermath of another painful defeat perhaps showed the overwhelming reasons Jauron should stick around.

Lynch, Chris Kelsay, and Josh Reed, amongst others, gave emotional post-game interviews or wore their feelings very much on their sleeves on the sidelines. They couldn't believe they'd lost so cruelly once again, but perhaps they also feared for the fate of a Head Coach they LOVE playing for. Not just like, love. They would run through walls for Jauron, so we're led to believe, and this goes back to the injury riddled 2007 season where the young Bills rallied around the quiet but affable leader, trusting his every word.

The problem is, whilst most players may want to play for their coach, there were some desperately disappointing comments from others when the Bills played their first regular season game outside of New York, in Toronto. Defensive Tackle Marcus Stroud told the media that he would guarantee the Buffalo locker room would prefer playing in warmer climes indoors than the frosty cold of Eric County in December. Guard Langston Walker backed those comments up, which leaves many Bills fans asking exactly what Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News did:

"Darryl Talley, Thurman Thomas and Jim Kelly relished the brutal conditions. What must Marv Levy be thinking? Whatever happened to, “Where would you rather be than right here, right now?” Or, “When it’s too tough for them, it’s just right for us.”"

The mental approach of individuals needs to change. Sure, the Coach can play a part in directing that, but at least Jauron has never looked cold on the sidelines. While several of his key players are content to give up one of the stronger home field advantages in the league for warmer temperatures (even if the decision to play in Toronto was a front office call), things will continue to struggle.

Ralph Wilson wants to see the Bills win before he dies. He turned 90 this year, so he probably doesn't have long left. Ask your average, not-so-well informed Buffalo fan how they'd turn this franchise into a winner, and you'd hear one of two pairings of words - Bill Cowher or Marty Schottenheimer. But Wilson appears loyal to this staff, perhaps wary that another upheaval in a team which has had four Head Coaches in eight years and even more co-ordinators will mean another two to three years of rebuilding to take a shot at the Super Bowl.

Buffalo has the pieces to become a player in the AFC East, which has to be their first step as it's probably the most competitive division in football. They must improve not only in personnel in one or two key positions, but simply in execution on the field. A converted field goal here, a non-fumble there, a semblance of offensive ability in another couple of games against teams they really should be beating and suddenly the 7-8 Bills are 11-4. It was the same story last year and it's the same this time around. Maybe it'll come through experience and learning the hard way.

The Bills are closer than it might appear to making waves in the post-season. Removing Jauron, contract extension or not, would cause more short-term problems than solutions.

Welcome Philip

A big hello to Philip Rolfe, who will be joining me to contribute to the upkeep of the site for 2009. We'll be looking to churn out a couple of articles every week and keep things ticking over nicely over the postseason and in the leadup to the NFL draft next year. As a huge Buffalo Bills fan, Phil was always the obvious choice to write on here, and after reading his musings on another site, he fits in ideally with the wide-right philosophy of 'quality over quantity'

So in future, check the author before you send me threatening emails - you may not even be threatening the right person!

It's time to change the Pro-Bowl voting system

In December, three things are decided: Who will make the playoffs, who will make the Pro-Bowl, and finally, Where players from the Houston Texans will be spending their January vacations.

Last week the Pro-Bowl squads were announced, and - as usual - some consistent performers were neglected, and some big names picked regardless of how well they have performed this season. At the moment, the voting system is structured so that players, coaches, and fans have a third of the voting each. On paper, the system is meant to ensure that players are selected on their performances, rather than reputations, but the introduction in 1995 of fan voting seems to have made the pro-bowl an irrelevant footnote to most seasons.

In an attempt to plug some holes in the sinking pro-bowl ship, the NFL this year sanctioned a baffling change in schedule, bringing the game forward to the week before the Superbowl. It's easy to see the thinking behind such a change, but in my view, it's not addressing the key point of the game, which is that nobody wants to play in it. Not only that, but it is fundamentally flawed, in that any player who goes to the Superbowl is automatically out of the Pro-Bowl. If it's an Indianapolis vs New York Giants Superbowl this year, then half of the pro-bowl rosters will not be heading for Hawaii.

Every year the spectacle is littered with big names that don't show for the actual game. Last year it was Tom Brady, Brett Favre, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Randy Moss, and this year you can expect more 'injuries' that tell you everything you need to know about how important the game itself is to players. The chance to hang out with your peers in Hawaii is a a novelty that wears off after a while, and a lot of veterans opt to spend time with their families at home rather than make the long journey west. The problem is not so much Hawaii itself - though the fact it is not held on the mainland could well contribute to the apathy of the general public - but the fact that the game comes at a point where most players have shut down for the offseason. It's hard to believe for those of us who would give anything to be on the field, but today's NFL players need time to rest as much as the next man, and the prospect of a long trip and a game at the end of it is not as appealing as it sounds to you or I.

So what is the answer?

Well there are two options:

1) Scrap the game altogether and simply choose the rosters, with an awards ceremony to honour those selected.

or

2) Reduce the amount of impact that the public has on voting.

Why would the latter help? Well, right now, the impact of reaching a pro-bowl is diminished by the fan power of mass market teams such as Dallas, New York or New England. All of these teams and a few others are featured regularly on TV to an extent that players from smaller teams are frozen out at the expense of their big name colleagues. How many times did Dallas Safety Roy Williams make the Pro-Bowl, despite being a liability in coverage? Indeed, he was benched this season, but you can guarantee that if he had continued playing to his previous low level, the fans would still have voted for him in droves.

Thus a player being selected to the pro-bowl is no longer the salute from a group of peers, as it previously was, and is more of a popularity contest.

Therefore, my proposal would be to abolish the game altogether. Drastic? Yes. Justified? Even more emphatically, yes.

Players don't enjoy playing in the Pro-Bowl, and fans seemingly don't enjoy it enough to justify it's inclusion on the TV schedules. Perhaps the latter point will not be as much of an issue this year, as it will fill what is essentially a bye week, and it could benefit from the fact that football fever will be at it's highest point in the run up to the Superbowl.

Regardless, it's the players who deserve the recognition, and it is frustrating to see people who have been recognised as standout performers in their field turn down invitations to what should be a celebration of their achievements. Do retired players look back and reminisce over their times in Hawaii? No, the only thing that matters is the number of times they went.

So how about an awards ceremony? Plenty of sports have all-star games, but those sports rarely involve the risk of severe injury that the NFL Pro-Bowl does. The move away from a glorified touch football game would show common sense from the league and give all the players a chance to attend, regardless of injury status. In fact, hold it the week before the Superbowl in the host city. Plenty of big name players actually go to the big game as spectators, so the chance to go to an awards ceremony is not too much of a stretch.

The move would also give the NFL a better platform to name it's best players, rookies and coaches in an official televised ceremony. For those of you thinking about pro-bowl jersey sales, I'd say that first of all, I'm not sure how many they actually sell, and secondly, there is no reason not to give players a pro-bowl jersey, just because there is no game. A ring would perhaps be seen as tacky and worthless, but a pro bowl jersey would still be something for players to keep as a memento of their career.

Unfortunately, the NFL will likely milk the game for all it is worth, but if this year's revamp fails, and the economic climate starts to hurt the league a little more, don't discount the idea of the pro-bowl being one of the first 'cost-cutting measures' that the league puts into place in 2010.

Vikings pair would be better served sitting out now

As the 'diuretic drama' - as it will hopefully never be known as by anyone - rumbles on this week, at least two of the players involved are gambling that the league will not enforce their suspensions at all this season.

Kevin and Pat Williams, the heart of the Minnesota Vikings Defensive line, and two of the most important factors in their team's winning record thus far in 2008, have avoided a four game suspension handed out by the NFL last week as punishment for their part in the 'Starcaps' incident, in which a a number of players have been caught. Unfortunately for them, the injunction is only temporary, meaning that should the league manage to argue their case in front of a federal judge at any point within the next few weeks, the 'Williams Wall' could well be suspended for four games.

Assuming that the league can make such a case, the two stud DT's could well find themselves on the sidelines for the team's first playoff game since 2004 - or longer. Indeed, the longer the case rumbles on, the more the duo risk. If they were to accept the suspensions now, for example, they would miss the remaining four games of the regular season. As it stands, Minnesota holds a 1 game lead over Chicago, with a relatively simple game in Detroit on Sunday that would put them in a very strong position at the top of the NFC North. Of course, they must then face the Cardinals in Arizona, before the Falcons and Giants travel to the Metrodome for the final two games of the season.

It's not an easy finish, but with the team having a lead in the division, they look much more likely to reach the playoffs - even without the two anchors of their D-line. With that in mind, it would make much more sense for them to sit out these games and gamble that the team will manage to stay ahead of Chicago, than it does to make the choice they have opted for. Essentially, the pair could miss any playoff games that the team plays in, and without them, I don't think they'll be able to take the bigger teams in the NFC.

Of course, what we don't know at this point is who is really calling the shots for the two players. Is it the team, or is it their agent Angelo Wright? Owner Zygi Wilf has taken a healthy interest in the legal escapades of his players, something that makes me question how much influence the Vikings have had over their players' decisions. It may sound crazy, but if I was Brad Childress, this is the exact call I would have made. If the team makes the playoffs - regardless of how far they go - it's hard to imagine him being sacked, yet if the team were to lose it's lead in the final stretch, his position could well be called into question by his many vocal critics in the press.

With that in mind, I think Kevin and Pat Williams have been badly advised. The team may not have liked them being suspended, but if the team reaches a Superbowl, and the pair can't play, they will still have exceeded expectations, and the pair will forever have to live with their decision that cost them a chance to play in the what would likely be the biggest game of their careers.

The worst teams in the NFL - and how they can improve in 2009

Yikes.

If you saw Oakland's capitulation to San Diego last night, or Detroit's humiliation against Tennessee on Thanksgiving, or virtually any St. Louis Rams games this season, you'll know that these three represent the lowest forms of existence in the NFL today.

For some teams, the rebuilding process is in full flow. Miami have improved dramatically after a 1-15 season last year, whilst Atlanta have bounced into playoff contention after the turmoil of having their franchise QB sent to prison. Even the Kansas City Chiefs drafted wisely enough to build a young team that doesn't have the pressure of needing to win now.

So here's what the Lions, Raiders and Rams need to get themselves back towards winning ways:


The Lions are a good place to start when you need to write about bad teams, because this team is appalling. There are no real positive aspects to be taken from 2008, except perhaps the acquisition of some high draft choices for WR Roy Williams. The defence is arguably one of the worst to take a field, and the offence couldn't move house, let alone a pile.

I could spell this out using statistics that show how bad the Lions, Raiders and Rams are in certain areas of the field, but there's really no need. They rank amongst the bottom teams in almost every meaningful category, and apart from that, I'd be here all night if I did that. Really, just assume they're in the bottom three unless told otherwise.

One issue that pervades with the trio is that they are unable to execute on 3rd down - on both sides of the ball. Interestingly, the issue is clearly also not with the Running Back in any of the situations. Steven Jackson of the Rams is a premier back, whilst both Kevin Smith and Darren McFadden were selected in round one of the 2008 draft. Whilst Smith has impressed, McFadden has been limited, but I'll go out on a limb and say that neither he or Justin Fargas is the real issue with the Raiders running game.

The Offensive and Defensive lines seem weakest of all the areas on all three teams. It's particularly surprising that St. Louis has allowed this to happen when you consider how much of their prior success during the 'Greatest show on turf' era was based on the solid foundations of OT Orlando Pace and DE's Grant Wistrom, Kevin Carter and their compatriots on either side of the line. They have attempted to address that over the last two drafts, bringing in Defensive Linemen Adam Carricker and Chris Long, but both have been anonymous so far in their NFL careers, and you get the feeling that the longer they play on such a poor team, the more risk that they will be seen as busts as the years go on. Pace is essentially done in St. Louis, and should be cut this year. It seems likely that the Rams would have taken Jake Long in the draft if he had been available in the draft, but it really is critical that they invest heavily in their O-line before Marc Bulger suffers some kind of internal combustion after being sacked for the 16,000th time.

In Detroit and Oakland, a rash of poor draft choices by Matt Millen and Al Davis respectively, has seen both lines ignored largely since the turn of the millennium. Bad experiences with high draft picks seems to have dented their faith in the Offensive line, whilst the D-line is littered with players who have never had to earn their money. Let's take Tommy Kelly for example. Everyone knows that D-linemen play with a hard edge that their position requires, but EVERYONE knows that you don't pay a D-lineman until you expressly have to. Why? Simple: Most players will respond better to the incentive of a bug contract, rather than the knowledge that they have already signed one. With this in mind, why the hell did Al Davis sanction a (then record) $50.5m for a player who was relatively unproven, and coming off knee surgery that ended his 2007 season? Baffling, and indicative of the decisons that seem to have backfired immensely on the Raiders this year. Indeed, it was rumoured recently that Kelly was one of a number of players that Davis was considering cutting, along with DeAngelo Hall (who was actually cut) and Javon Walker, all of whom were signed to big money deals just months prior to the 2008 season.

With the Lions, it is almost a running joke that the team invested so much in skill positions over Millen's era. Indeed, I did a feature on Millen in July that showed just how poor his drafting skills were (as if you needed to be made aware of that) and supporting the 'Millen Out' campaign. Thankfully for all concerned (except Matt presumably), Millen was fired earlier this season, and in turn the Lions secured a first, a third, and a sixth round pick for another of his selections - WR Roy Williams. It is essential that they rebuild the Defensive line, after trading away Shaun Rogers to Cleveland. They have a rash of early draft picks, but that can be a huge financial burden for a team that has been amongst the bottom of this league for a long time. These top 5 contracts aren't cheap, and sooner or later the team might have to win purely to aleviate credit concerns.

So we've established that you could essentially replace the vast majority of the linemen on all three teams with traffic cones, or perhaps a red carpet of some description. Indeed, being inanimate objects, neither would be likely to give away false start penalties. Anyway, enough about linemen, what about the offensive skill positions?

Well, as I said earlier, the Lions have hurled enough first round picks at the problem, and finally something has stuck. Calvin Johnson is essentially the next great NFL Wide Receiver. Seriously. He's that good. Consider that the vast majority of balls thrown his way have been by men fleeing for their lives, and you get an idea of how good he is both on the run and in the air. Indeed, the jump-ball is something of a trademark for Johnson now, and it's easy to see him developing into the next Randy Moss - and in my book, that equals the Hall of Fame.

Smith has also shown that he could well be a wise move at Running Back. At the very least he deserves to play behind a proficient O-line before judgement is passed, and Rudi Johnson may still have some gas left in the tank. At QB, it seems likely that the team will give Dan Orlovsky a second chance next year after some relatively encouraging displays prior to his season ending injury, whilst veteran Jon Kitna is likely done as the team seeks a fresh start. Is it possible they could draft a QB in 2009? In all likelihood no. The draft class is not impressive enough that there is a 'can't miss' prospect at the position, and they have more pressing needs in... well everywhere really.

The Rams too, should stick with Marc Bulger. Actually, my theory is that they will do just that, and that the reason he has been pulled from games recently is simply to protect his long term physical health. We all know that RB Steven Jackson is a great player, but it will be interesting to see him play with a big contract behind him. Remember that Jackson was paid peanuts compared to his on-field contributions, and again, with the carrot of a new contract removed, how will he motivate himself? The team needs to get playoff bound soon for him to rekindle that desire to win.

At Receiver it is time to cash in on Tory Holt whilst he is still a tradeable commodity. Holt doesn't want to be in St. Louis anymore, and after 9 years, he knows that he likely will not win another championship there before his contract expires in 2010. Why not ship him out and look to the future? There is no shame in doing that, and in fact it can sometimes be detrimental to a young team if they feel that they are holding back a veteran player in the Autumn of his career. If they traded him now, they'd likely get a 2nd round pick minimum, perhaps even a first. The Rams won't be winning before his contract expires, so the equation all seems to add up to Holt's exit to a contender.

Finally, in Oakland, it gets messy. JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden should be the faces of this franchise for the next five years minimum. Instead right now, Russell looks like he has never been coached properly, and McFadden has been hobbled all season. Whilst injuries can be overcome, it is worrying to see so little progress from Russell in his sophomore year. Even if you write off 2007, it's not acceptable for a second year player to be averaging less than 150 passing yards each game, and his completion ratio is actually down from his disastrous showing in the last four games of 2007.

Is that Russell's fault? Probably not. We all know he has the ability, but he has been almost cast adrift by a franchise in flux, left to fend for himself as the front office wars with itself and the coaching staff revolves constantly. None of this can be good for a player, and we've seen what that can do to a Quarterback in Detroit, where Joey Harrington was cast as the source of - rather than the victim of - the team's woes.

The first thing the Raiders need to do, before they draft anyone, before they sign a free agent, is to get some stability on the sideline. At the very least, Al Davis should be looking at a coach who can help Russell develop into the player it seemed he was destined to be as he left LSU two seasons ago. I almost feel sorry for him - yes, even with the multi-million dollar contract - having to watch Matt Ryan have such success as a rookie, despite his team being at a low ebb when he took over the reigns. The difference being that Atlanta had hit rock bottom, whereas you do feel that Oakland could well sink even lower whilst Davis remains at the helm.

Unfortunately, Davis will likely not give up the Raiders whist his health prevails, and common decency prevents me from wishing ill upon him. Indeed, Davis is not the kind of guy who we should ever see as a bad thing for the NFL considering his contributions over the years, but sadly, his legacy is tarnished with every losing season the Raiders notch up, and his questionable decision to attack Lane Kiffin publicly (inviting litigation from Kiffin) after he fired him was a sign that perhaps he needs to take a step back. You can guess what bothers him, and that is the same thing that bothers so many of the men who have given their lives to one sole objective in life: Al Davis is afraid that giving up his franchise will be the death of him.

Tragically, there may be no light at the end of the tunnel for the Raiders while Davis refuses to accept that what is in his own best interests is not always in the best interests of his beloved franchise.