Wednesday 25 June 2008

Five Quarterback battles - and who will win them

With Mini-Camp over, the next time we see the NFL players at organised team activities will be in August, as they enter Training camp. It's also where many teams will decide who wins battles on the depth chart, and there is little controversy as enthralling as a good ol' Quarterback battle.

Here are five teams with questions under centre, and our thoughts on who will win in the end. We deliberately left Miami out because we went into that in some depth in the team preview. On with the show!

San Francisco

The contenders: Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, J.T. O'Sullivan

The most wide-open battle ironically occurs in a city that has a tradition of consistency at the position over the last 30 years. From Montana, to Young, and even to Garcia, there has rarely been a question mark coming into Training Camp. In true bus fashion, they've made up for it by having two at the same time.

Alex Smith looks like the obvious favourite to the casual observer. His 'first-overall' status has yet to wear off completely, and the financial commitment that the 49ers have made in him is not inconsiderable. With this in mind, it is a gauge of how far Smith's stock has dropped that he faces a competition with a journeyman backup and a young QB who has yet to start an NFL game.

Shaun Hill held all of the momentum coming off the end of last season. Two wins in the final two games in place of the decrepit Trent Dilfer emphasised the poor play at the position by both previous incumbents. Unfortunately for Hill, that momentum has faltered since the hiring of Mike Martz as Offensive Co-ordinator for the coming season. Martz favours the big arm of Hill, and has worked with O'Sullivan in Detroit last season. From the noises that Martz and Nolan have made, the competition is still open, but it is Smith's to lose.

Who will win?

More than likely, Smith. He is coming off a shoulder injury that hampered his progress last season, and he arguably showed that he is capable of getting the job done during 2006 under Norv Turner.

Chicago

The contenders: Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton

Bears coach Lovie Smith must wonder how things have got back to this stage. In 2005, Kyle Orton led Chicago to 10 victories, before being replaced at half-time by Grossman, who himself inspired the week 15 comeback against Atlanta. Grossman was then named starter, and consequently took the team to the Superbowl in 2006, falling to Indianapolis on the biggest stage.

Criticisms of Grossman's error-prone 'boom or bust' style continued to dog Smith, and after an average start to 2007, backup Brian Griese took over. Griese proved that he had very little to offer in either the short or long term, and thus the Franchise used it's third QB of the season for the last three games of '07, as Orton returned, and finished the season with two victories.

This battle could go either way. Counting in Grossman's favour are both his status as a high draft pick, and that Smith seems enamoured with his potentially brilliant skills. You kind of get the impression that if it wasn't for the constant speculation in the media, Smith would have persevered longer with Grossman.

Who will win?

Grossman. Put simply, he still fascinates the coaches in Chicago. He really is on his last chance as a starter, but his potential upside far outweighs that of Orton, who has proved to be a capable backup. Realistically though, it is very concievable that both will start at some point through 2008.

Arizona

The contenders: Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner

Ironically, heading into the 2007 season, there was very little question about this battle being won by Leinart. Thanks to a combination of injury, poor off-field decision making, and Warner's strong play in place of him, the former first-rounder finds himself under pressure. The ageing Warner proved that he is still effective, throwing an impressive 27 TD's and almost 3,500yds, and this has in turn put coach Ken Whisenhunt on the spot. Does he go with the short term option - Warner - and try to win a championship at the expense of his Franchise quarterback's progression? Or does he give Leinart the reigns, and hope that his play justifies keeping Warner out of the equation.

Who will win?

It's hard to imagine Leinart losing the job completely, but it's also impossible to discount some kind of time-share arrangement that we saw before Leinart went down last year. The latter would keep neither man happy, but would also allow Whisenhunt the option of putting Warner in more liberally than if he actually committed to Leinart. Remember that Arizona is entering a small window with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Edgerrin James in the same lineup.

However, we'd hazard a guess that Leinart will start, if only because annoying Warner has far less repercussions down the road for the franchise.

Baltimore

The contenders: Kyle Boller, Joe Flacco and Troy Smith

While there can be no doubt about Flacco's place as the Raven's long term starter, the question of who will open in week one could be intriguing. Boller, let us not forget, was in a similiar situation when he was drafted by Baltimore in 2003. In fact, it could be argued that as a first rounder, he has never been given the chance that he may have expected. Rarely has he had the confidence of the coaching staff through his time with the team, and the signing of Steve McNair in 2006 must have been a bitter blow. Still, the team have not quite given up on Boller, and since McNair's retirement he has another shot at trying to convince another team that he can start in the NFL.

The wild card is Troy Smith, who - despite winning the Heisman trophy in 2006 - was drafted in the fifth round last season. Smith saw some time last year as the Ravens season ended, but it is debateable whether losing to Miami can be considered something you want on a C.V.

Who will win?

As we say, it's clear that Flacco is the long term starter. Just for the record though, Boller was drafted with the 19th pick in 2003, and Flacco was pick 18. There has been positive noises from the coaches regarding the possibility of Flacco starting immediately, but despite his physical gifts, it is a huge risk, and one that did not come off with Boller. Smith would be considered if the team decide that they can still get a return on Boller via a trade, but this is unlikely.

If we had to pick one now (and starting this article means we have little choice), we'd pick Boller, but the calls for Flacco will start roughly 4mins into the first drive of the regular season.

New York Jets

The contenders: Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens

We know, we already covered this, but it is definately worth re-visiting, as this is probably the most even matchup we will see this August. Chad Pennington is the most accurate Quarterback in NFL history, a fact that really doesn't tell the whole story. Arguably one of the most talented players of his draft class, Pennington has suffered through injuries and now faces the most difficult challenge to his tenure in New York. Indeed, he was replaced for a good portion of the 2007 season by Clemens, who showed little with the opportunity he had.

The Jets are the most talked about franchise in this situation, inevitably, after their pre-season spending spree. Whoever does win will inherit a much better Offensive line to protect them, anchored by the $40m man, Alan Faneca, at Left Guard. Pennington certainly deserves the shot, when you consider the relatively poor O-lines he has played behind over the first 6 years of his career, but Clemens has an unknown quantity that Eric Mangini may be tempted by.

Who will win?

This one will probably go down to the wire. Mangini himself does not seem to have much conviction in either man, and it will be interesting to watch both players' stock fluctuate over the course of the pre-season. Pennington probably edges it, in our opinion, purely because of the clear desire to win now, as opposed to down the line.

That's all for Quarterbacks - we'll have the other key positional battles over the next few days.

2 comments:

IainRWB said...

It's easy to be the most accurate QB in NFL history when you check down for a 2-yard completion on 3rd & 6. All the time.

In the last 3 seasons Pennington has thrown 29 TDs to 28 INTs. His W-L record in that time is 12-15 in the regular season and 0-1 in the playoffs. What part of that spells "winning QB" to you?

I'd love to see Chad succeed, but it's not there, not anymore.

Argel said...

I don't disagree at all with that, and I know why he has that completion percentage.

On the other hand, he was playing with Mangold and Ferguson as young starters. That is why I believe Mangini will see what Chad has left in the tank before turning the wheel over to Clemens.