So the Indianapolis Colts have defeated the Jets, barring an improbable comeback. This week I've been engaged in debate about my prediction of 30 points for the Colts against what has been an excellent Jets defence over the course of this season.
Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.
Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.
One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.
I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.
The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.
Sunday, 24 January 2010
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Superbowl prediction: Minnesota vs Indianapolis
Last week I went 4/4 on the divisional playoff games and, typically, didn't bother putting my money where my mouth was. That's the law of gambling right there: If you have a hunch and don't put money on it, it will definitely come off.
This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:
NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.
The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.
Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.
Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28
AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?
This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.
Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.
This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.
An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.
The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.
New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30
This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:
NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans
Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.
The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.
Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.
Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28
AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?
This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.
Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.
This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.
An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.
The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.
New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30
Monday, 18 January 2010
Ryan's zero coach of the year votes a mystery
Earlier last week I spoke to a friend whilst inebriated beyond reasonable comprehension. Despite my ramblings about the NFL being hilariously 'out there' (How about a college coach for the Seahawks? Broncos the most likely team to play the 49ers at Wembley?) I did hit upon one subject that I think was worth dwelling on further - If the Jets win two postseason games, how about Rex Ryan for coach of the year?
The fact that Ryan got zero votes staggers me. The Jets were frankly not in great shape when he took over, and he has instilled an air of confidence that we simply have not seen from the Jets in recent years. Despite this, Ryan came away from this year's voting with the square root of... something impolite. I'm no Jets fan (as you will see tomorrow) but Ryan deserves a hell of a lot of credit for his approach to a franchise that could well have stagnated after the Favre fiasco.
To put it another way: He has achieved more with Mark Sanchez than Mike Smith did in his first year as coach of Atlanta with then-rookie Matt Ryan. If that warrants zero votes, then something isn't right in the process.
The fact that Ryan got zero votes staggers me. The Jets were frankly not in great shape when he took over, and he has instilled an air of confidence that we simply have not seen from the Jets in recent years. Despite this, Ryan came away from this year's voting with the square root of... something impolite. I'm no Jets fan (as you will see tomorrow) but Ryan deserves a hell of a lot of credit for his approach to a franchise that could well have stagnated after the Favre fiasco.
To put it another way: He has achieved more with Mark Sanchez than Mike Smith did in his first year as coach of Atlanta with then-rookie Matt Ryan. If that warrants zero votes, then something isn't right in the process.
Phil Simms drops the F-Bomb on live TV
Oh Dear Phil!
I maintain, it is still better than Joe Theisman asking 'Coach Gibbs' if he should wipe his ass every 8 minutes. Yes Joe, you should, because otherwise you're going to walk around with a half pound of crap in your pants as well as your mouth.
I maintain, it is still better than Joe Theisman asking 'Coach Gibbs' if he should wipe his ass every 8 minutes. Yes Joe, you should, because otherwise you're going to walk around with a half pound of crap in your pants as well as your mouth.
Saturday, 9 January 2010
NFL draft 2010 - The Quarterbacks
The NFL draft is soon going to move into focus. Even now, people are speculating that the Redskins may take Jimmy Clausen as their next franchise QB. Tim Tebow remains almost unclassifiable, despite his record with Florida. Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, who Tebow beat to the Heisman in 2007, are the other big name prospects entering the draft this year. I've been discussing this with friends for some time, so here's my take on the quarterbacks in the NFL draft 2010.
First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.
The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.
Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.
Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.
McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.
Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.
The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.
Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.
Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.
That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.
There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.
The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.
Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.
There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.
If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:
Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.
Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.
Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.
Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.
Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.
First of all, I think Shanahan is not one to buy into hype, and he likes a certain type of QB. Look at Cutler for example. He was fixated on him because he felt like he had the ability to make the kid great. He won't take Clausen, Bradford, Tebow or McCoy based purely on any kind of hype, or because he feels compelled to take a QB. Jason Campbell is not a no-hoper, and there is actually no pressure on Shanahan to select any QB in 2010.
The biggest issue is still firstly, that I don't believe any of the top four exhibit elite mental strength needed to be a franchise QB. That may change, and thankfully we get an opportunity to see more of them as time goes on. In this category I rate Bradford the highest. I like Tebow from an attitude perspective, but I'd be concerned about McCoy lacking true intelligence, and Clausen's failings with Notre Dame. That's not to say all of them can't change opinions in the next few months as we see them play and talk, especially at the combine and senior bowl.
Secondly, the physical issues that they all have are enough to make me wonder if any are really worth a first round pick, when you combine it with the mental aspects of their respective games.
Clausen has the best knowledge of pro system from college, but his fundamental technique will need an awful lot of work. He has a horrendous release that is excruciating to watch. Again you have to question his performances in college and whether he is in any way going to be a capable QB at the NFL level, especially when he suffers through any initial growing pains. My gut says no. I am staggered by the idea that people think Shanahan will draft a QB like that. People are making these predictions, but the realities of the situation will be fairly apparent come draft day. There's no way Shanahan pays a QB top 5 money unless they're completely sold on him, and there is currently zero evidence to suggest this is the case, or ever will be the case.
McCoy is one of those guys who is at his best when a play is broken, but he doesn't have the accuracy, arm strength, or experience of playing under centre. A second day pick in all likelihood. I could envisage him starting because of injury at some point in his career, but he's not going to be anyone's great hope for the future, and definitely does not have the mental agility to compensate for his lack of physical ability.
Tebow is just an enigma. I reckon he will go a round higher than he should (so the 2nd) purely because of who he is. It would be a total shambles if a team drafts him and expects to have the guy under centre within a year. I really like his attitude, it lends itself to adapting. I Would be massively suspicious about him declining the Senior Bowl. It's a great opportunity to work with NFL coaching staff, even if it is the Lions and Dolphins, and he has just turned it down flat. I'd hazard a guess, much like I did in December, that this is down to his realisation that he could well end up hurting his draft stock by exhibiting his lack of ability to run a pro offence and adapt his playing style.
The more I think about him the harder I find it to place him in the NFL. My instinct is to say someone like Cleveland, KC, St Louis etc would be a good fit because they're weak on offence, and he could be used dynamically. The problem I see with that theory is that the coaches who are there probably aren't building their team on the basis that they will always be bad. Take Cleveland, for example, and you can safely say that Mike Holmgren isn't looking for a gimmick to take the heat off Brady Quinn. He'll either believe in the QB or he'll go and find another one, but I don't see Tebow fitting that kind of team either way.
Someone will take him, I think that's the only given. Maybe Jacksonville in the second round. It's easier to place him there because of the recent rumours surrounding the team's future. It may be the team's only hope of galvanising support in the local area. I appreciate that it's the 'trendy pick', but I don't see any reason for a team to take him for footballing reasons. The Jags will likely get antsy for a QB if Bradford and Clausen are both gone at that point.
Which leads me to Sam Bradford himself. Durability is a slight concern after suffering a season ending shoulder injury. That's for medical staff to decide whether it has had an affect on his throwing ability, and for the purposes of analysing the guy at this point in time, let's assume it is not an issue. it's certainly something that coaches will want to see from him before risking a high pick. Of the four, he's the guy I would trust more. Bradford has a slightly lackadaisical attitude, but not to the point of being dumb or being unable to lead.
That would my big question though, if I was an interviewer: Is this guy going to inspire the players around him to play better football? That has to be the first and in some ways the only meaningful question you ask a QB prospect in the run up to the draft. I've said it before, but the physical gulf between QB's in the league is nowhere near as big as the mental one. You have guys who can make every throw, who have rocket arms, but it gets them nowhere in the league. Then you have smart guys like Chad Pennington who can compensate for any physical issues by being a true leader of men, a guy who has the intelligence to adapt his game to a situation.
There is no happy medium for a quarterback in this league. You have to believe if you're drafting a guy in the first few rounds, that he has the mental ability to lead his team to greatness. He needs confidence in his own ability, and the mental intelligence to diagnose plays as they happen. What sets apart 'great' QB's is that they naturally do this. They study the game until it is embedded in their brains, and the thought process about what is actually happening during any given play really is taking up a minimal amount of their decision-making process. That allows them to go through their progressions and concentrate on avoiding interceptions and mistakes.
The mentally fragile QB will take a sack because he has held onto the ball too long, and it's not in the Ben Roethlisberger way, it's in the panicked 'oh crap, what the hell is going on?' way. You see it quite often in guys who run backwards a lot. The true greats are feeling pressure, yeah, but they take the hits like anyone else - it's just after they've let go of the football. The point is not just avoiding pressure, but having the confidence and ability to know what is happening downfield and make a throw regardless of how close a defender is to a sack.
Anyway, I digress. None of the QB's in this year's draft particularly exhibit those qualities, but Bradford has the best all-round ability. I'd describe him as average-good on both mental and physical fronts. If I was a fan I'd take no issue with a team drafting him as a future starter, but I would be cautious about drafting him too high in the first round. if he's not the guy you really want, but you need a QB, you absolutely have to wait for a guy you have faith in. The NFL is littered with first round players who the coaching staff probably drafted more out of hope and need, than out of belief in the player. The killer is that if you're the Raiders and JaMarcus Russell is your pick, what happens in three years time? That's the cut off point for a first round QB in my eyes. That situation is repeated often by teams, purely because someone thought that 'any quarterback is better than no quarterback'.
There's a compelling argument for what Chicago have done with Jay Cuter, ie: trading away first round picks for a franchise QB who is proven in the league. The lottery of drafting in the first round means that if you have a chance to secure a player who you believe in and has shown that he can play, then you are far better off than gambling. Imagine if Chicago had played last year with Kyle Orton (who they don't believe in) and he had been average. The pressure would now be on to select one of these four, and yet none may be the guy they really want.
If I had to go out on a limb and predict where the top QB prospects will go in the draft, this is how it would go today:
Sam Bradford to go in the middle of the first, most likely to Buffalo, Seattle, or one of the teams with a new GM or coach that is looking for a guy to start afresh with. Jacksonville could be an option if they want to actually draft a player on ability. I don't think he'll last until the beginning of the second.
Jimmy Clausen to go at the beginning of the second round. St.Louis would probably take him out of need at that position. Again, a team with a recent coaching overhaul might throw a surprise in there and take him at the back of the first round by trading ahead of St. Louis. I wouldn't trade anything to draft him personally.
Tim Tebow to go to the Jaguars in round two. I think they would bite if there was nobody else they were sold on. Hell, they're probably right to do so. You can blow a second round pick like Miami did on Pat White, and he won't give you any extra sell-outs, whereas Tebow will do that for the Jags. There's a case to be made that even if he's a bust, they haven't really lost as long as they don't select him instead of a guy they really want - hey, if anything, you could say it's less of a gamble than drafting a guy to actually play football for you. The Jags don't currently have a second round pick, but they may well trade up to get him if they have neglected to take a QB earlier.
Colt McCoy I believe could be a 4th, perhaps 5th round pick. He'd be a project for a team with a veteran starter. Seattle would be a good fit in that respect, but a lot depends on what teams do earlier on.
Finally, this is an inexact science that will never be pinned down. Sam Bradford may be a complete bust and Colt McCoy may get a shot and be the next Tom Brady. My mindset is that you can coach physical issues to a certain extent, but character and mental ability is something that the guy has to have within him. You're looking for a winner, not a guy who has won.
Tuesday, 5 January 2010
Broncos the most likely team to play 49ers at Wembley
Well, it's good news for San Francisco fans in britain - the team looks well set to play in one of the Wembley games this year. Who will be their opponent? Well since Philadelphia are on the schedule, they are less likely than Dallas to go to Wembley on the basis of their lack of a Jerry Jones-style egocentric character, so my money is firmly on Denver.
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Denver
Oakland
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
Philadelphia
As New Orleans and Tampa have already played in Europe, and the Raiders are a rival team. the only logical choices are the Eagles and Broncos. Of course, this is assuming the 49ers are the home team, as I believe they will be...
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Denver
Oakland
Arizona
St. Louis
Seattle
Philadelphia
As New Orleans and Tampa have already played in Europe, and the Raiders are a rival team. the only logical choices are the Eagles and Broncos. Of course, this is assuming the 49ers are the home team, as I believe they will be...
Monday, 4 January 2010
The Offensive Line NFL dictionary
Here are the unofficial additions to the NFL dictionary 2009. If you have any suggestions, you can send them on twitter
JaMarcus (Jah-mar-cuss)
To expend more energy by not trying, than you would by simply being competent at a great job.
"He's spent the last 3 hours JaMarcussing around rather than helping us moisturise these damn playboy bunnies - Be a dear and hold still could you?"
Cribbs (Kribs)
Army slang for a long range missile capable of destroying your much better equipped opponents, and which therefore must be used in every way but the manner intended.
"See, we were going to use the Cribbs to win our next war, but we decided that if we used it as ballast in a submarine, then sold it to Iran, we could buy more of these here zeppelins!"
Polian (Pole-ee-ann)
To refuse an attempt at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in favour of trying to accomplish something you have already done once.
"He only needed to win one more hand for a shot at $1m, but he Polianed it and went to play bingo again"
Welkered (Well-ker-d)
To vindicate a Polian.
"Turns out he had a pair of twos, he'd have been Welkered if he carried on. Still, looks like he's doing ok in the bingo..."
McDaniels (Mac-dan-ee-ells)
High pitched screech that eventually wears down all in earshot.
"Protestors have complained that the new runway will leave many local residents unable to sleep because of intolerable McDaniels emitting from aircraft taking off"
Zorn (Zorn)
To become disinterested in one's grisly demise.
"I think after we cut off his toes he just kind of Zorned out"
Cutler (Cut-ler)
Talented employee of organisation who is given poor tools to work with, but is expected to perform better than the previous incumbent.
"He might have been good in the kitchen, but lets see how he manages if we cut his arms off! I bet he's a Cutler, you can see it in his chin"
Favre (Far-v-re)
To cuckold your boss in public.
"You wouldn't think he could still Favre like that at his age. I don't think she's complaining though. Hey Brad, isn't that your wif... oh. Why are you sobbing?"
Houshing (Hoosh-ing)
The act of talking up your ability whilst simultaneously proving yourself incorrect.
"He reckons he's going to kick our ass at pool, but I think he's just houshing - look, he's just racked them up on the foosball table..."
Offensive Tackle (Off-en-sive Tack-el)
Speciality of the Oakland Raiders
"And that's now 4 offensive tackles for Zach Miller, all coming off JaMarcus Russell interceptions..."
JaMarcus (Jah-mar-cuss)
To expend more energy by not trying, than you would by simply being competent at a great job.
"He's spent the last 3 hours JaMarcussing around rather than helping us moisturise these damn playboy bunnies - Be a dear and hold still could you?"
Cribbs (Kribs)
Army slang for a long range missile capable of destroying your much better equipped opponents, and which therefore must be used in every way but the manner intended.
"See, we were going to use the Cribbs to win our next war, but we decided that if we used it as ballast in a submarine, then sold it to Iran, we could buy more of these here zeppelins!"
Polian (Pole-ee-ann)
To refuse an attempt at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in favour of trying to accomplish something you have already done once.
"He only needed to win one more hand for a shot at $1m, but he Polianed it and went to play bingo again"
Welkered (Well-ker-d)
To vindicate a Polian.
"Turns out he had a pair of twos, he'd have been Welkered if he carried on. Still, looks like he's doing ok in the bingo..."
McDaniels (Mac-dan-ee-ells)
High pitched screech that eventually wears down all in earshot.
"Protestors have complained that the new runway will leave many local residents unable to sleep because of intolerable McDaniels emitting from aircraft taking off"
Zorn (Zorn)
To become disinterested in one's grisly demise.
"I think after we cut off his toes he just kind of Zorned out"
Cutler (Cut-ler)
Talented employee of organisation who is given poor tools to work with, but is expected to perform better than the previous incumbent.
"He might have been good in the kitchen, but lets see how he manages if we cut his arms off! I bet he's a Cutler, you can see it in his chin"
Favre (Far-v-re)
To cuckold your boss in public.
"You wouldn't think he could still Favre like that at his age. I don't think she's complaining though. Hey Brad, isn't that your wif... oh. Why are you sobbing?"
Houshing (Hoosh-ing)
The act of talking up your ability whilst simultaneously proving yourself incorrect.
"He reckons he's going to kick our ass at pool, but I think he's just houshing - look, he's just racked them up on the foosball table..."
Offensive Tackle (Off-en-sive Tack-el)
Speciality of the Oakland Raiders
"And that's now 4 offensive tackles for Zach Miller, all coming off JaMarcus Russell interceptions..."
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