2008 Week One Preview - Part Three

The final part of our

Sunday, 4:15pm EST (cont)

Arizona at San Francisco

The easy-to-mock NFC West throws up yet another classic matchup. Sarcasm aside, this could be an interesting litmus test for two veteran Quarterbacks who have beaten out high first round draft picks during Training Camp. Arizona's Kurt Warner holds the advantage in terms of experience, and it will likely be that and the weapons at his disposal (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin) which makes the difference. Neither Defence is particularly good in coverage, so expect a shootout if the Mike Martz offence takes off as it has done in St. Louis and Detroit.

Fantasy Pick:Warner is the kind of guy who can throw for 400yds, 5 TD's, 6 INT's and lose four fumbles after being sacked. We think that adds up to positive totals in most leagues, and he could even get away with some of his more rubbish throws tommorow against the 49ers hit-and-miss secondary. We also like the 49ers Defence for IDP leagues. Patrick Willis, Manny Lawson, Justin Smith et al should bring the heat and rack up an impressive number of tackles.

Fantasy Drop: For similar reasons, we can't see Edgerrin James having too big a day against a decent front-seven. If Rookie Tim Hightower is getting goal line carries too, Edge's fantasy value plummets. O'Sullivan is a risky play, though if he gets going, he could put up good numbers in the Martz offence. We'd give it a few weeks before making that call though, and we will, because the idiot writing this has O'Sullivan as his backup QB in his 16 team dynasty league.


Dallas at Cleveland

A horrendous matchup that we'd really avoid if you're into the old gambling. On the one hand, the Cowboys have a great all-round roster, and a Defence that is amongst the top five in the league. What makes us pick the Browns? Playmakers. Sure T.O is great, and so is Jason Witten, but past that, what proven playmakers do the Cowboys have? The Browns have Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow jnr., Donte Stallworth, and Josh Cribbs. All four are viable receiving targets that can open up rushing lanes for Jamal Lewis and a highly talented O-line.

Fantasy Pick: Lewis is a safe fantasy pick, as neither Jason Wright or Jerome Harrison is a threat to carry much. Any Cleveland receiver should be played, especially Edwards, who we predict could lead the league in receiving yards this season. For the Cowboys, Owens is the only obvious play, though QB Tony Romo could have a good day if another receiver steps up to the plate.

Fantasy Drop: We'll be bold here: Don't pick the Cowboys Defence this week. If any team has the chance to surprise the Cowboys early, it's Cleveland, and they have a well rounded offence that can really put up huge numbers, even if they lose. We'll wager the 'boys D counts for less than 10pts in most fantasy formats this weekend.


Sunday, 8:15pm EST

Chicago at Indianapolis

Here's what we think: The Bears Offence should be demoted to the Arena Football League until they learn how to play properly. Let's be honest though, if there was a Defence that Peyton Manning wouldn't want to face in his first game back from injury, it'd be the Bears. In the end the scoreline will be less relevant than whether Manning escapes without any after effects following the inevitable sacks he will take. Despite that pressure, the Bears Offence is honestly just too bad to take advantage of anything it is given.


Fantasy Pick: If you're lucky enough to own them, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are obvious starters, and if you needed us to tell you that, it's best that you give up now, because you will not win your league this year. Actually that's not true, you probably will, but it will be a hollow victory built on luck. Think of us with J.T O'Sullivan when you nonchalantly select Manning every week. For the Bears, apart from the Defence, Devin Hester is worth a look, as any points will likely be generated through him, and of course, Kicker Robbie Gould will finish off most drives after they stall.

Fantasy Drop: Kyle Orton is not a viable starter until he shakes the 'game manager' tag. We expect him to be slightly looser than when he started in 2005, but still very much a backup in both real life and fantasy football. Similarly, Matt Forte and Kevin Jones both have issues that will need addressing before we find out how valuable they'll be this year. For now, assume them to be projects until one or the other breaks out. One player who could make this list every week is Colts kicker Adam Vinateri, who's main jobs in life are 'kicking extra points' and 'missing field goals'.


Monday, 7pm EST

Minnesota at Green Bay

We've gone for Green Bay on Monday, despite Aaron Rodgers making his first regular season start for the Packers. Put simply, there are still more question marks over Tarvaris Jackson than Rodgers, and the Packers Defence is one of the most under-appreciated units in the league. Of course, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor are still rushing threats for the Vikings, but when your offence is that one-dimensional, its hard to establish a running game.

Fantasy Pick: Greg Jennings will likely overtake Donald Driver as the Pack's best receiving threat, but both are good plays this week. Also likely to see extensive work is TE Donald Lee, as Rodgers adjusts to his starting role and leans on his Tight End slightly more than usual. For the Vikings, either Peterson or Taylor is a decent option in most leagues. It will be interesting to see how that dynamic develops over the course of the season, however.

Fantasy Drop: Neither Aaron Rodgers or Tarvaris Jackson can be considered safe QB plays. Rodgers should be slightly better, but both could easily throw as many picks as Touchdowns. We also don't like either Sidney Rice or Bernard Berrian until Jackson shows what he's made of. Ryan Grant is a slight injury worry for the Pack, so keep an eye out for his status come game time. Packers coach Mike McCarthy did a lot of shuffling in the backfield last year, so Grant isn't that great an option even when healthy.


Monday, 10:15pm EST

Denver at Oakland

The final game of the week, and it's on at a particularly stupid hour. If this game is deciding your fantasy matchup, then we feel sorry for you, mainly because it means you must be tied to one of these terrible teams in some way. The Raiders have a decent enough rushing attack, however, and the porous Broncos run defence should give ample opportunity for them to put up big numbers on the ground. Denver are without Receiver Brandon Marshall, who is suspended, and Rookie Running Back Ryan Torain, who is injured. Overall, that just adds up to a big handicap to overcome.

Fantasy Pick: Any Oakland Running Back. Justin Fargas will start, but Darren McFadden will likely see extended playing time, so both are relatively safe picks. The Oakland Defence will likely never have an easier day than Sunday, so if they're available in your league, consider them if you're facing an unfavourable matchup.

Fantasy Drop: If you own the Denver Broncos Defence, you seriously need to have a quiet word with yourself and ask 'is fantasy football the game for me?', because they are an atrocious unit in all facets of the game. Also on dicey territory this week is Broncos QB Jay Cutler, who quite simply has nobody to throw to. We like Cutler long term, and feel like he is alreayd the best QB of the '06 class, ahead of Matt Leinart and Vince Young, but he is not a fantasy stud yet, and needs a stable running game to keep defences honest.


That's our full preview of week one. To help you make your picks, we'll condense all the pertinent information into one handy list for you. Don't say we never do anything for you.