Making a Mockery of Mock Drafts

I don't know about anyone else, but Mock Drafts frustrate me. Not so much the premise of them, and sure, come April they're fine. But we're a couple of days removed from the Super Bowl, almost a month past the College Football season finale, and yet we've been saturated with 'expert opinion' since mid November.

I can understand the clamour for such things this week. The NFL season is done, there's no action of note until August, and there's a gap that needs filling in the short term. The problem is, you look at Mock Drafts now, and they're really, really unlikely to represent what actually happens at the end of April.

The draft is still THREE MONTHS away. All of February, all of March, and then pretty much all of April too. Everything can change in that time. We've got Free Agency, Combines, Pro Days, all manner of events and activities, but it's somewhat acceptable to look to the Draft right now and make predictions.

Fair enough, a lot of the names at the top end of things won't change much, as elite talent is elite talent. Let me take you back almost an exact year, to February 6th of 2008, and Todd McShay's post-Super Bowl mock:

1. Miami Dolphins - Matt Ryan
2. St. Louis Rams - Chris Long
3. Atlanta Falcons - Darren McFadden
4. Oakland Raiders - Glenn Dorsey
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Jake Long
6. New York Jets - Vernon Gholston
7. New England Patriots - Leodis McKelvin
8. Baltimore Ravens - Sedrick Ellis
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Derrick Harvey
10. New Orleans Saints - Mike Jenkins

Now I like McShay, but even this 'expert' of his field only hit 2 of the top ten this early. Many of the names ended up flip-flopping around, but the omission of Joe Flacco from the entire first round is essentially the point I'm making. Flacco wowed pro scouts at the Senior Bowl and at the Combine and flew up draft boards in time to make it to Baltimore at number 18.

Continuing down the first round mock a year ago, only two selections (Ryan Clady to Denver and Felix Jones to Dallas) were nailed, with seven names dropping out of the first round by the time the league gathered at Radio City Music Hall. If Todd McShay, Director of College Football Scouting for Scouts Inc with over a decade of experience, can only muster a 12.5% success rate in February, everyone else should just give up.

Mock Drafts are all well and good, just....you know, give it some time before you compile them. They'll at least mean something in March. Right now, they just make people look silly.

Picks for the Superbowl

An interesting night awaits.

Even 3 weeks ago, the prospect of these four teams being in the Conference finals would have seemed improbable, but tonight the Steelers will face the Ravens, whilst the Cardinals will take on the Eagles for the right to play in the Superbowl.

My guess? We'll be having a Bird Bowl on February 1st.

I like the Ravens, and I like the Cardinals. Both have proved something that we should have known for years - form in January is the most important thing in January. Of course, the Eagles could claim the same mandate for a victory, but every time I go to choose Philadelphia, something inside tells me that the Cardinals have the desire to do this, and that they can again upset the odds.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, I like both teams equally. In August I tipped the Steelers to win the Superbowl, but no team has shown more in the last few weeks than the Ravens. Their Defence has played to even higher levels than they were already capable of, and Ed Reed is staking his claim to join the all-time greats at the Safety position.

A lot is made of Ray Lewis's impact on his teammates, but equally important is Reed and his intelligence, ability, and attitude. Indeed, this is quite simply the best secondary in the game right now, and can Ben Roethlisberger avoid an implosion? I always think that it's difficult to avoid when faced with a Defence like Baltimore's that loves to bring the pressure.

Whatever happens, the good news is that we're going to have a hell of a Superbowl.

Gruden out in Tampa

In a move that has apparently 'blindsided' the man that brought a Championship to one of the league's worst franchises historically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have parted ways with coach Jon Gruden and G.M. Bruce Allen, after the team failed to make the playoffs despite being in pole position at the beginning of December. The Bucs were usurped by Atlanta and Carolina, who both finished strongly, whilst the Bucs closed the season with something of a whimper.

The move could have wider repercussions around the league, though the timing makes me wonder if the Buccaneers are well aware that the Jets and Rams have narrowed their coaching candidates down to a final shortlist, and that Gruden may not be able to get another Head Coaching gig in 2009. Apparently the Rams wanted to make a decision before Saturday, which would seem to rule Gruden out, whereas the Jets are allegedly enamoured with Ravens Defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. If the Ravens are beaten in Sunday's AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, then it is widely assumed that the Jets will then move to appoint Ryan quickly, but if the Ravens make it through to the Superbowl, it will be interesting to see whether the Jets choose to complete 'due diligence' by interviewing Gruden.

Whether Gruden is interested in getting straight back into coaching is another story. It's too early to tell, though it must be galling for him to know that he could potentially have had the University of Tennessee job earlier this year.

Incidentally, I purposely left out the Oakland job, as there is more chance of hell freezing over than Gruden heading back to Oakland. There has been speculation that Gruden's availability could trigger another team to fire their head coach and appoint Gruden. The immediate assumption is Buffalo, but would Gruden be enamoured by the Bills? It's hard to imagine. One place where Gruden could certainly cause a change in direction is in Dallas, where Jerry Jones has been far from unequivocal about the status of current incumbent Wade Phillips.

Wild Card Preview three: This time, it's Baltimore at Miami

I'm 1/2 for Playoff picks, and that was from what some would consider the easiest ties to predict. The Colts were upset in Overtime by the Chargers after a spirited display that saw the Chargers overcome LaDainian Tomlinson's lack of fitness and lean on the speed of Darren Sproles.

Tonight, Miami will host Baltimore, while the Eagles head to Minnesota for a date with the Vikings. On the Love Boat. Possibly.

Baltimore @ Miami

As always, the focus of most people's attention will be the Quarterbacks. Will Joe Flacco fall to the veteran Chad Pennington, just as Matt Ryan was cowed by Kurt Warner last night? I don't think so, but for me, this game is more about what their supporting cast can do.

For the Dolphins, Chad Pennington has had little help all season at the receiver position, and Ted Ginn Jr must start producing more consistently if the team is to progress, as his two TD's this season are not enough. For me, Pennington's best weapon might turn out to be TE David Martin, who has been underrated throughout his spell in the NFL. He has come up trumps for the Dolphins on a few occasions this season, and tonight, when the Ravens bring the heat, he will be Pennington's first read often enough to make a few plays.

Similarly, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams must establish the ground game, and make the Ravens D play what is generally referred to as 'honest football'. A big question for the Ravens is how they will hold up in the playoffs. They are extraordinarily healthy for this period of the season, which is a huge advantage over most of the teams they will face at this point. Players such as Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs have been in tremendous shape this year, after suffering with injuries in the recent past. Is this their year again? It's hard to argue that the Dolphins can stop them when the two teams match up, especially considering the talent that the Ravens have on offence, with LaRon Mclain, Willis Mcgahee and Ray Rice rushing, while Derrick Mason and Todd Heap are both solid veterans in the air.

One thing that for me, swings the entire game in Miami's favour: Bill Parcells.

When the two teams met in October, Baltimore won. Unfortunately, it could well be their undoing, as there is nobody in the game better than Parcells at film study. He will will put the knowledge of the Ravens offence to good use, and primarily, he will ensure that Miami get a much better pass rush this time around. Flacco knows that at any point, he is expected to hit the fabled 'rookie wall', and the Miami Defence will do everything possible to make him uncomfortable while the spotlight is so heavily concentrated on him.

Secondly, I can see the 'wildcat' coming out, but rarely. The thing works, but if you ever have the opportunity to see and hear Ed Reed and Ray Lewis communicate on a football field, you will understand why this Baltimore Defence is categorically one of the greatest to ever play the game. The understanding of offensive plays is probably as good as those who are running them, and their ability to read a formation such as the wildcat comes instinctively. They will not fall into the traps that Miami set. Instead, I think beating the Ravens comes down to one thing: stopping their rushing attack. All of the games they have lost have been primarily down to not being able to establish a solid ground game. Take away this part of the attack, and all of a sudden Flacco is not so comfortable.

The Dolphins should take a leaf out of Arizona's book, and ensure that they put the rookie under as much pressure as possible. After that, they may find that Chad Pennington's traditional dink and dunk style of play is more than enough to beat the Ravens. Of course, don't discount Cam Cameron's offence and his knowledge of the Miami Defence, but I have to side with the Dolphins and Parcells on this one - even over the arguably more talented Baltimore team.

One final note: Out of all of the games this weekend, this is the one I feel could well become a blowout one way or the other.

Wild Card Preview Numero Deux: Indianapolis @ San Diego

Well it's been an interesting game in Arizona, and right now my prediction looks pretty accurate. Kudos to the Cardinals defence for stepping up too. It's not over by a long shot, but either way, it's clear that the media have underestimated Arizona.

Anyway, on with the show:

Indianapolis @ San Diego

I've left this late for one big reason: L.T. As it happens, he says he'll play. but after seeing the extent of his injury, I'm not 100% that he can have any impact at all, even if he does so.

To that end, Darren Sproles will likely shoulder the workload, along with Jacob Hester. Ironically, I'd be surprised if that changed the gameplan much. Sproles is a great receiver, just like Tomlinson, so expect plenty of screen passes, which should also negate the Colts' excellent pass defence.

Unfortunately, it's still a huge blow, and it gives the Colts a big boost. Indeed, I think the actual reason why Tomlinson's status is even in doubt is to stop the Colts getting that confidence from knowing their opponent's star player will take no part in the game. The status of Antonio Gates is also up in the air, which is exactly where the Colts thrive on both sides of the ball.

Indy are amongst the league leaders in both passing categories, and with MVP Peyton Manning at the peak of his powers, it's hard to bet against them, even on the road. Dallas Clark will be a key player, and expect him to get on the scoreboard at least once. On the ground, I'd also expect Dominic Rhodes to play an expanded role, much as he did in the 2006 playoff run. Rhodes offers a similar veteran mindset to Edge in Arizona, and sometimes a player with experience can be just as important to a team as a player who is theoretically more gifted.

As always, there is one caveat: Peyton Manning is one of the greatest players - if not the greatest player full stop - to ever play his position. Unfortunately, when he is bad, he is really really bad. Watch for his head dropping if he throws a pick. If he throws another one, watch for him getting irritable on the sidelines. Very occasionally, those things backfire for Manning, and he ends up having a nightmare.

I don't honestly think that will happen tonight, but never say never. Indy will likely win tonight against a frail San Diego Defence, and the key to this game will be not what the Colts do, but what the Chargers Offence can conjure up in the absence of their focal point.

Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?

It's officially Wild Card weekend, and that means a preview of the four games that will decide who will fall at the first hurdle. Today Atlanta will head to the desert to face Arizona, and Indianapolis will also make a long trip west to play San Diego. I'll break down these two games first.

Atlanta @ Arizona

On paper, it's a mismatch. The Falcons enter the game having won three straight games, and five of their last six. The Cards have been abysmal, stuttering to the finish line with an unconvincing win over Seattle and a humiliation by the Patriots in a snowy week 16 matchup.

Despite all of this, I believe these two teams are pretty similar, the only difference being that the Falcons rely heavily on the run, whereas the Cards go to the air. Apart from that, the teams have very similar Defensive statistics, and arguably both rely on their offence to make plays due to their propensity to give up yards on the defensive side of the ball. A lot has been made of both Quarterbacks, and rightly so. Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan have done excellent jobs this season, and have been the primary reasons why both teams find themselves in the Playoffs - yes, Ryan is probably more important to the Falcons' success than Michael Turner, as a poor QB could easily undo Turner's efforts on the ground.

What strikes me most is how similar the two Defences are. Barring some key standout players on either side (Adrian Wilson, John Abraham), neither could be considered as particularly strong. Indeed, these are the two worst Defensive teams left in the playoffs, and that makes the matchups intriguing. Certainly the Cards will feel better about their chances of running the ball in this game than previously, and a lot will depend on Edgerin James, who is expected to start the game. Tim Hightower should also find it much easier spelling James than being the focal point of the Running game. One place that is a definite mismatch is in the secondary, as Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald go up against an Atlanta secondary that is youthful, especially at the corner position, and could be missing Lawyer Milloy, the Safety who is arguably the Defence's emotional leader.

All of these factors favour Arizona, but what about the Falcons? Surely they must still be considered favourites? Well, yes. They have a fearsome ground game (something that ESPN must regret touting as the 24th best in the league at the beginning of the season) based on an every down back (Turner) and a speed back in Jerious Norwood who has the capability to break a big play whenever he touches the ball. All of that should open up the passing game for Matt Ryan and his go-to receivers, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. White in particular, has been clutch this season, and if the duo get going early, it could be a long evening for the Cardinals Defence.

Both teams have one other X-factor: The return game. Norwood and Harry Douglas for Atlanta, and Steve Breaston for Arizona, all contribute both on offence and special teams. It would not be a surprise at all to see one of the trio score on a kick return.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that I think Arizona will win this one. They have the kind of team I don't believe anyone wants to face in the 4th quarter, even if they're down by a score. They have the capability to move the ball downfield at a pace that Atlanta may not be able to match, and for that reason, I think they will likely avoid the conservative approach that they adopted towards the end of the season, and get back to what they do best - relying on Kurt Warner.

The Dick Jauron Debate

So, the Buffalo Bills have failed to break their post-season drought again. Next September they'll enter the season knowing failure will complete a decade of despair for upstate New Yorkers, desperate for some success. Desperate even for a winning season for the first time since 2004, the hot topic in Buffalo is whether Dick Jauron should remain as Head Coach.

Let's make it clear off the bat - Bills fans are a little different to your average fan. They've already got to deal with a mad pre-disposition for supporting the team in the first place, but history and events continue to crap on them time and again. Even in this, the 2008 season, the Bills have lost on Monday Night Football due to a last second kick for the second season in a row, and chucked away a late lead at home to the New York Jets to lose to a fumbled football. A 4-0 start disintegrated with 8 defeats in the next 11 outings, and it looks likely Jauron will record his third 7-9 season in a row. So should he continue as Head Coach, and does he deserve the much-rumoured three-year extension to his current deal?

It's easy to look at statistics and make your mind up. Many a detractor will point out that the Bills sit 25th in overall offense and 20th in total defense, neither unit showing enough to be a credible player in the league. Only three teams have put up fewer sacks than the anaemic Bills pass rush and only four have intercepted fewer balls than a secondary which just a few years ago was one of the outstanding units in the league in takeaways, with many of the personnel remaining.

Sometimes it's not as simple as numbers though. Jauron has landed a young roster, one of the youngest in the NFL. A roster that was tested in 2007 by thirteen season-ending injuries, and yet the Bills ran the playoff chase far closer than they should have. Sports writers across the nation called Jauron's name for Coach of the Year consideration. So what's changed a year later?

For a multitude of reasons, after starting 4-0 the Bills have lost their way. Maybe it's that the teams they beat en route to their best start in a decade and a half are now a combined 15-45. Maybe it was when Trent Edwards came crashing down to Earth in Arizona and missed two weeks with a concussion. It's more than certainly attributable in some manner to poor play-calling and poor execution, but how much can you level at Jauron himself? Does the buck stop with the Head Coach because of the failures of the staff he employs or the players to whom he's been entrusted?

He certainly took the fall for the abominable defeat to the Jets in Week 15, claiming it was his call to run a passing play instead of a run when common sense and logic suggested the hand-off to Marshawn Lynch was the play of choice. And yet, the aftermath of another painful defeat perhaps showed the overwhelming reasons Jauron should stick around.

Lynch, Chris Kelsay, and Josh Reed, amongst others, gave emotional post-game interviews or wore their feelings very much on their sleeves on the sidelines. They couldn't believe they'd lost so cruelly once again, but perhaps they also feared for the fate of a Head Coach they LOVE playing for. Not just like, love. They would run through walls for Jauron, so we're led to believe, and this goes back to the injury riddled 2007 season where the young Bills rallied around the quiet but affable leader, trusting his every word.

The problem is, whilst most players may want to play for their coach, there were some desperately disappointing comments from others when the Bills played their first regular season game outside of New York, in Toronto. Defensive Tackle Marcus Stroud told the media that he would guarantee the Buffalo locker room would prefer playing in warmer climes indoors than the frosty cold of Eric County in December. Guard Langston Walker backed those comments up, which leaves many Bills fans asking exactly what Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News did:

"Darryl Talley, Thurman Thomas and Jim Kelly relished the brutal conditions. What must Marv Levy be thinking? Whatever happened to, “Where would you rather be than right here, right now?” Or, “When it’s too tough for them, it’s just right for us.”"

The mental approach of individuals needs to change. Sure, the Coach can play a part in directing that, but at least Jauron has never looked cold on the sidelines. While several of his key players are content to give up one of the stronger home field advantages in the league for warmer temperatures (even if the decision to play in Toronto was a front office call), things will continue to struggle.

Ralph Wilson wants to see the Bills win before he dies. He turned 90 this year, so he probably doesn't have long left. Ask your average, not-so-well informed Buffalo fan how they'd turn this franchise into a winner, and you'd hear one of two pairings of words - Bill Cowher or Marty Schottenheimer. But Wilson appears loyal to this staff, perhaps wary that another upheaval in a team which has had four Head Coaches in eight years and even more co-ordinators will mean another two to three years of rebuilding to take a shot at the Super Bowl.

Buffalo has the pieces to become a player in the AFC East, which has to be their first step as it's probably the most competitive division in football. They must improve not only in personnel in one or two key positions, but simply in execution on the field. A converted field goal here, a non-fumble there, a semblance of offensive ability in another couple of games against teams they really should be beating and suddenly the 7-8 Bills are 11-4. It was the same story last year and it's the same this time around. Maybe it'll come through experience and learning the hard way.

The Bills are closer than it might appear to making waves in the post-season. Removing Jauron, contract extension or not, would cause more short-term problems than solutions.