Why the 49ers should give Alex Smith another shot in 2009

Anyone who had the (mis)fortune to catch the MNF thriller between the 49ers and the Cardinals in Arizona last night, should be in no doubt that if San Francisco is genuinely going to become a better team, they need a new Quarterback. Mike Singletary can show the team his bare ass all he likes - hell, he can turn round for an encore - but the team that he envisages the 49ers becoming will not work with any of the current signal callers on the active roster.

Singletary believes in a run-first offence that manages the ball and relies on it's defence to give them good field position. Of course, Defence is not the biggest worry right now for the niners, who are 22nd in the league in total yards against. If you think 22nd isn't good, ask yourself this: How many times have the Offence gone three-and-out this year? Enough times that the team should by rights have given up a mammoth amount of yards.

Unfortunately, the team cannot exist on a diet of J.T. O'Sullivan's fumbles, or Shaun Hill's laughably weak arm. Both have shown that their major deficiencies are not something that will easily be overcome, and that's why I believe there's a better than evens chance that Alex Smith, the no.1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, could be back with the 49ers next season.

First of all, the major obstacle: Smith's contract. He's due almost $10m, a figure that the team will balk at paying for a player who at best can expect a competition for the starting job next spring. On the other hand, if we assume that Smith can be brought back at a lower rate - perhaps under a restructured deal - it's highly likely that new coach Mike Singletary would opt to at least see what he has before making any snap decisions to bring in a veteran free agent, for example Cleveland's Derek Anderson.

If the team releases Smith, then attempts to sign him back at a more palatable salary for 2009, it's highly likely that at least one team would give Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting role. The Vikings, the Bucs, and perhaps the Lions could be interested in acquiring Smith in an attempt to see exactly how much of Smith's decline was his own fault.

And that leads me to my final point: It really isn't his fault at all.

The knock on Smith is that he doesn't have the mental strength to play in the NFL - but the guy has played under as many offensive coordinators as he has played years in the league, and he had the traumatic rookie season, during which he struggled mightily and threw just one touchdown. These two factors would affect plenty of Quarterbacks straight out of college, but that is no reason to give up on them completely. His fall has mainly been intertwined with that of head coach Mike Nolan, who realised midway through Smith's third year - where he suffered a shoulder injury that has only now been dealt with properly - that to save his job, he would need to win more games than he could afford to let Alex Smith lose for his own development.

Looking back to Smith's sophomore season under OC Norv Turner, there were plenty of signs that he was maturing and developing into an NFL calibre QB. His sack ratio was halved, and he threw 16 TD's and 16 INTs. He also threw for nearly 3000yds in a team that was not exactly overloaded with game winning receivers. All of this should really have counted for more than it did when Nolan effectively threw him under the bus after the shoulder injury, accusing Smith of lacking toughness for what transpired to be a potentially career-threatening injury.

So here's the deal: If you want to blame anyone for Alex Smith's woes, blame Mike Nolan. The sycophantic ramblings of Jamie Dukes on NFL Network's Total Access show last week as he eulogised Nolan (the in-studio guest) as a 'great coach' were completely against all evidence to the contrary that we saw in San Francisco. If anything, we saw a man who struggled to get the best out of high draft picks, who made rash comments about a young man learning his trade, and who realistically will next get a job as a Defensive coordinator somewhere around the league.

As for Smith, it would be rash to say he's the next Peyton Manning (More of Matt Ryan later), but he deserves at least one more shot at being a starter in the NFL, and if people read between the stat-lines, they might realise that there is potential still unharvested in the young man out of Utah.

A few changes to Wide-Right

After a hiatus of a few weeks due to 'real life' (because this is an illusion you see) issues, we'll be revamping the site over the next week or so.

The primary consideration is getting a format that we are happy with and that is sustainable every week - especially during the regular season, which has harder deadlines than the offseason. To achieve that goal, I've streamlined the contributions to just myself for now - a big change to normal, I'm sure you'd agree...


In all seriousness, the NFL is the most important thing in my life (sorry honey!), and from now on, we'll be looking to channel that more effectively by virtue of getting the right people contributing the right articles.

We'll have more through next week as we look to put a permanent structure in place. In the meantime, thanyou for your patience.

Week Six Power Rankings and Predictions

All change!

After last week, we sat down and decided that after nearly a third of the season, it is time to re-evaluate each team's chances. That means teams such as the Giants, the Titans, and the Redskins are worthy of their places in the top ten, and right now all three look comfortably on course for the playoffs.

At the bottom, the Texans are clearly a better team than their position suggests, but the fact is at 0-4 and with no bye week, it's hard to see them mounting a playoff run in a tough division. Similarly, the Eagles are falling out of contention in the East, and the Seahawks - although not out of it by any means - will need some luck to overhaul the Cards.

1) Pittsburgh Steelers - When the season started, we tipped the Steelers as dark horses. While there are more surprising teams at the top of their respective divisions, none was expected to fall harder than the Steelers. With a bye week upcoming, they have cemented themselves as the most consistent team in the league, and are one of the few teams who we'd stake the house on making the playoffs.

This week: bye

2) Dallas Cowboys - A gritty win against the Bengals, but it could be said that the Cowboys gave Cinci every opportunity to shock them, and the final score flattered to deceive. In a tough division, they will need to carry on their good (regular season...) form against the Giants to maintain this position at their expense.

This week: @ Arizona - Dallas win

3) Indianapolis Colts - People will say 'but the Titans are 5-0!', and they're right. Those people can certainly read numbers. What we feel is this: The Colts have an opportunity to finish in the playoffs, and this week will be looking to get within two games of Tennessee during their bye week. Put simply, if the Colts get into the playoffs, they have a better opportunity of winning the Superbowl.

This week: vs Baltimore - Indianapolis win

4) New York Giants - Warrant their place near the top after a convincing victory over Seattle. We still think they've had an easy schedule, and a lot will rest on their divisional matchups, but when it comes to beating the teams that are put in front of them, the Giants have proved themselves more than capable. An interesting banana skin this week in Cleveland, but realistically, the Giants have every chance of going deep into the playoffs again.

This week: @ Cleveland - NY Giants win

5) New England Patriots - The Pats are flying under the radar somewhat, but a win this week would see them draw level with Buffalo due to the latter's bye week. The blip against Miami has really given the Pats a great opportunity to keep their low profile and still maintain their divisional dominance. How will they fare in the post-season? Difficult call.

This week: @ San Diego - New England win

6) Tennessee Titans - The Titans are now in the luxurious position of having a record that will likely get them through to the playoffs with games to spare. On the other hand, the rival Colts are not out of the picture, and it's important that they take advantage of their easy game next week (@ KC) to keep the momentum going into the teams' Monday Night Football battle the following week. If one game decides a division, it is that one.

This week: bye

7) San Diego Chargers - We now enter as phase of the power rankings dominated by teams that have talented rosters, but are doing their best to squander their shot at the playoffs. It is only outrageous talent that keeps the Chargers in our conscious, but every game they slip behind the Broncos could be critical, as no team is guaranteed a wild card in the AFC, no matter how weak their division.

This week: vs New England - New England win

8) Washington Redskins - We have to admit, the Redskins are not what we would consider a strong team. Their Defence has huge holes that will be exploited as the season goes on. On the other hand, they've beaten two divisional rivals, and that in itself means they have a great shot at second place in the NFC East. We just have a little gut feeling this weekend that the Rams may have more impetus and energy, and could catch the 'skins cold.

This week: vs St. Louis - St. Louis win

9) Denver Broncos - The Broncos are a patchy team, and certainly not a lock to reach the post-season, but they have managed to get some crucial victories, and their position at the head of the AFC west is not a fluke. We'll admit that we had the Broncos wrong this year. They've managed to outpunch most of their opponents, even if they have taken some huge blows themselves. We're not sure where this boxing analogy is going, suffice to say that their aggressive style will likely yield some poor results down the line.

This week: vs Jacksonville - Jacksonville win

10) Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers must be frustrated. It's hard to knock him for what has been a solid start to his reign as Packers QB. At the current rate, you'd imagine that it is simply a matter of time before he is rewarded with his second long term deal with the team. Unfortunately, the team has contrived to lose some crucial games, and the worry has to be that their schedule will not get any easier (The NFC North teams play the strong AFC and NFC South teams as part of their schedules this year), and the team has perhaps put themselves behind Chicago as the best team in the division. A lot will come down to this week, where they have a golden opportunity to restore some confidence in Seattle.

This week: @ Seattle - Green Bay win

11) Carolina Panthers - One team has set themselves apart in the highly competitive NFC South, and their overall play means that the Panthers deserve more credit than they have received this year. The big problem is that the Saints - arguably the strongest team in the division on paper - are only two games back, and they're the team with the worst record in the division! Can the Panthers maintain their good form? We think so, but the South could be turned on it's head by a couple of divisional results.

This week: @ Tampa Bay - Carolina win

12) Chicago Bears - What can you say? The team gets wins, one way or another. You can certainly never say the team is dull to watch - though perhaps the number of people with heart problems in Chicago could be traced back to a steady diet of Pizza and Bears. Either way, the team is in the box seat, and confidence is growing in QB Kyle Orton, who is proving himself more than a game manager every week. The play of rookie Matt Forte has been a pleasant surprise, and the one word that springs to mind regarding the running back is 'playmaker'. Sadly, the team does not have enough of these to contend for the big one this year.

This week: @ Atlanta - Chicago win

13) Buffalo Bills - WHAT DID WE SAY? Ok, no more bragging, but it is true that we have been saying for a couple of weeks that the Bills being at the top of the pile was due to their schedule as much as anything, and last week's implosion in Arizona was on the Cards (yes, we just did that) long before Trent Edwards was knocked out of the game. They have a bye this week, and it couldn't come at a better time, as the Bills need to regroup fast to avoid freefalling. What the Patriots and Jets do this weekend could be more important than Buffalo's result next week.

This week: bye

14) Arizona Cardinals - Ok breath... breath... breath... Yes, the Cards are in the top half of the power rankings. It's on merit, and you have to feel that in a division where the other teams are amongst the three worst in the league, the Cardinals have a huge opportunity to make the playoffs this season. Kurt Warner is always going to rack up yards, and even with his fumblitis, he can keep the team in contention against the biggest of deficits. The big question will come if Warner goes down with an injury, but Matt Leinart is no scrub, and can likely hold the team together down the stretch.

This week: vs Dallas - Dallas win

15) Philadelphia Eagles - Not quite out of the hunt yet, but in need of some help to regain lost ground against the rest of the division. Don't count them out though, especially considering that the Redskins and Giants are perhaps shakier than their records suggest. Unfortunately, the injury sustained to Brian Westbrook could deal the final blow to this team's hopes, but a game against the 49ers and a bye week next week could see them right back in the mix.

This week: @ San Francisco - Philadelphia win

16) New York Jets - Just scraping in are the Jets, who are technically bottom of the AFC East, but could be right back in the playoff chase if results go their way. Brett Favre is finding the New York Groove, but the danger is that with the Dolphins making progress, the Jets could also slip the other way. Their schedule is favourable in the next few weeks, and they must make the most of that before their tough divisional games come up, as it's make or break time in week 11 as they travel to New England for a crucial Thursday night matchup.

This week: vs Cincinnati - NY Jets win

The rest (In one word or phrase):

17) Jacksonville Jaguars - Inconsistent
This week: @ Denver - Jacksonville win

18) New Orleans Saints - Lacking a dominant running back

This week: vs Oakland - Oakland win

19) Baltimore Ravens - Best of a bad bunch

This week: @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis win

20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Still in the hunt

This week - vs Carolina - Carolina win

21) Atlanta Falcons - Improving all the time

This week: vs Chicago - Chicago win

22) Miami Dolphins - Intelligent football team

This week: @ Houston - Houston win

23) Minnesota Vikings - Internal strife is never a good sign

This week: vs Detroit - Minnesota win

24) Houston Texans - Better than their record

This week: vs Miami - Houston win

25) Cleveland Browns - Recovery does not look imminent

This week: vs NY Giants - NY Giants win

26) Seattle Seahawks - Time zones, no Receivers, no Quarterback...

This week: vs Green Bay - Green Bay win

27) Cincinnati Bengals - Falling apart

This week: @ NY Jets - NY Jets win

28) Oakland Raiders - Potentially the surprise team of the next few weeks

This week: @ New Orleans - Oakland win

29) San Francisco 49ers - Poor despite their record

This week vs Philadelphia - Philadelphia win

30) Kansas City Chiefs - Poor coaching, unable to use their best weapons

This week: bye

31) Detroit Lions - Embarrassing - and that's in their own words

This week: @ Minnesota - Minnesota win

32) St. Louis Rams - New coach, new beginning? Just an outside shot at a victory this week.

This week: @ Washington - St. Louis win

Week Five Power Rankings

An all in one bumper update this week, sponsored by my wisdom teeth trying to burrow their way out of my skull. Yes, it's pain city, but on the plus side, I can manage to churn out this rubbish quality content while I'm incapacitated. One thing I'm going to do is take a look at some of the bigger stories too, because we've become bogged down in predictions and stats over the last few weeks, which isn't how I imagined the site becoming during the '08 season.

Anyway, let's kick off with the Power Rankings from week five:


1) Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys remain in top spot, but it's more an indication of how poor some of their main rivals have been in recent weeks. Divisional losses hurt more, but even in the NFL's strongest division, the 'boys reign supreme.

2) San Diego Chargers - The Chargers are the best of a challenging group that has tailed off in recent weeks. Do you look at their propensity to struggle against weak opposition - but grind out a win - as a good thing, or a bad thing? To me, it's enough to question their ability to go deep into the playoffs.

3) Green Bay Packers - A .500 team in 3rd, whilst it's NFC counterparts languish down the rankings? Well think about this: The Packers can likely afford to lose 5 games, and still win their division. It's a luxury that none of their NFC rivals can realistically afford.

4) New England Patriots - No move for the Pats, as again, it's hard to knock a team that didn't play, when it's rivals seem so underwhelming. The next two games will likely determine whether they can retain the AFC East.

5) New York Giants - The Giants eh? Everyone has them in the top three, but hold on for a moment. Do people seriously think that because the Giants beat the Redskins, and the Redskins beat the Cowboys, that somehow the Giants have overtaken the Cowboys? No, we've said it before, but that's not how it works, otherwise the Jets (who beat the Dolphins) would have beaten the Pats. Got it yet? Probably not. Said it before: Let's see how they fare against genuine quality. The Seahwaks are a nice test.

6) Tennessee Titans - Again, a team that is higher on most boards at the moment. Why? Well, they have one of the best Defences in football, and their running game has the feted 'Thunder and Lightning' combination that has become de rigeur throughout the league. The big question for me - and I'll go into some depth on this one later - is what happens when this team starts losing. How will they react? At the moment they're in the enviable position of not knowing what that is like.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers - The big question for Pittsburgh is 'can they stay healthy?'. Right now it's not looking good. Mewelde Moore at Running Back is not as bad as people might think. Moore was a relatively dependable back in Minnesota, forced out more by the Peterson-Taylor combination than any real failings on his own part. An injury to Ben Roethlisberger is still the major worry. Every week he takes a knock of some description, and really the O-line needs to start protecting him from what could at some point become a season-ending mauling.

8) Philadelphia Eagles - Ouch. A fall from grace for Philly, who can't seem to quite nail their colours to any kind of winning streak. Compared to the Redskins, I'd say they have the experience neccesary to stay in the playoff hunt, though, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them challenge the Cowboys for the NFC East come December.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags have now ground out two close victories over Divisional rivals, including the reigning AFC South champions, the Colts. A patchwork O-line seems to have at least stabilised the pass protection for David Garrard, but to get back to 'contender' status, they'll need to take the Rushing form they showed against Indianapolis two weeks ago and get it to consistently work.

10) Indianapolis Colts - The Colts pay the price for a bye week when their major rivals in the division both won. The Houston game is now crucial, and it's imperative that the team learns to stop a concerted Running game, as both Chicago and the Jags have ran all over this team.

11) Washington Redskins - Why so low? Well it's simple: Jason Campbell is still - despite the gushing praise from some media types - performing with the consistency of a second year player. The Defence, too, looks to have regressed back to it's pre-2007 habits of giving up big plays at crucial moments. Mainly though, they're probably a year away from winning this division.

12) New Orleans Saints - The Saints are putting up big offensive numbers, and have had a relatively tough schedule with the exception of last week's encounter with the 49ers. Drew Brees has been the best QB in the league through four weeks, and if he stays healthy, the team should roll into the playoffs. Their division is a tough one to predict, however, with the Panthers and Bucs snapping atheir heels and claiming big scalps on the way.

13) Buffalo Bills - This one will cause uproar, we know. Look, the Bills are 4-0, and we're glad, because for one reason or another, we grew up wishing they would break their Superbowl duck. The reality of the situation though, is that this team narrowly beat Seattle and Jacksonville when they were injury plagued, and has genuinely struggled against the Raiders and Rams - the two worst teams in the league on our list - in the last two weeks. Remember that the AFC East plays the AFC and NFC West divisions this season, which in theory means that the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots all get to face the same weak opposition. The Bills will make the playoffs, but how will they fare come the crunch, after one of the easiest schedules in football? It will be a strong test of character for a young team.

14) Carolina Panthers - A solid win against a divisional rival (Atlanta) was important, but as usual, the South is much of a muchness. None of the teams inspire you enough that you'd happily wager money on them winning or losing the next game. In what is traditionally a close division, the Panthers find themselves in the lead right now. Expect that to change, but not this week - they face the Chiefs.

15) Denver Broncos - What did we say? We said they'd screw up against the Chiefs, and they only went and did! The main reason being that enough people had hopped on the bandwagon, that eventually the whole thing would tilt over and end up in a ditch. Not quite sure what that means? Me neither, but they lost to the Chiefs, and that isn't good.

16) New York Jets - Interesting. The Jets have what could be their biggest opportunity for a decade to genuinely rid themselves of their tag as being 'the team most likely to finish second in the AFC East', yet seem intent to labour for every victory. They've made hard work of the Dolphins and Cards, and lost to the two big teams (the Chargers and Patriots) they've faced. Despite that - and it pains us to go along with the man crush that certain media outlets have on him - Brett Favre will win games when they look dead and buried, and will win any shootout like last weekend's against the Cards.

The rest (In one word or phrase):

17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Passable

18) Arizona Cardinals - Glass Ceiling

19) Baltimore Ravens - Unbalanced

20) Chicago Bears - Moustachioed

21) Cleveland Browns - at the crossroads

22) Seattle Seahawks - Homesick

23) Houston Texans - Back on the wagon

24) Minnesota Vikings - Jaded

25) Atlanta Falcons - Satisfied

26) Miami Dolphins - Stable

27) Cincinnati Bengals - Bruised Ego

28) Detroit Lions - Porous

29) San Francisco 49ers - Resuscitated

30) Kansas City Chiefs - Meeting Expectations

31) Oakland Raiders - Circus

32) St. Louis Rams - Utterly inept. Probably have shares in Washington Mutual

Week Four Power Rankings:

After a week long hiatus, power rankings are back, and there's been a bit of a rethink and a reshuffle. We're loath to be the reactionaries that you see on some websites (For example, do you think the Broncos are the fourth best team in football, or is it merely because they've won 3 games?), but even we might have to rethink the Texans.

Anyway: A condensed, one liners-style Power Rankings:

The best:

1) Dallas Cowboys - Beat the team that would have occupied this slot last week.

2) San Diego Chargers - Weak division and weak conference now that the other AFC teams have started to struggle.

3) Green Bay Packers - A loss to Dallas is nothing to dwell on, there was nothing exposed as a huge weakness, though Harris's loss could have an impact.

4) New England Patriots - Yes they're human, but they needed this loss. Been complacent this season, need to get that ruthless streak back.

5) Philadelphia Eagles - Did it against a contender (Pittsburgh), and thus leapfrog a lot of other teams who've had easy starts to the season.

6) New York Giants - See above, only in reverse. This team is vulnerable and could struggle in the middle of the season.

7) Indianapolis Colts - Two close games, and a possibly contentious loss. The Colts could be (this will sound odd) dark horses in the AFC.

8) Pittsburgh Steelers - A bad loss against the Eagles, and some key injuries. A lot will depend on the health of Ben Roethlisberger.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars - The running game will gain confidence, which is all this team needs to become the contender we thought they could be.

10) Tennessee Titans - The defence is there, it's all about whether the offence can keep them ahead inc lose games. So far, so good.

11) Buffalo Bills - A weak schedule disguises the flaws, but to be fair to the Bills, they are still winning, and that is what counts. St. Louis next up...

12) New Orleans Saints - Frustratingly poor on the road, if they play to their potential they can be playoff-bound, if not, they will likely fall behind the Panthers.

13) Washington Redskins - Inconsistent, but Jim Zorn is a good coach, and there is a gut feeling that momentum could build in the capital.

14) Carolina Panthers - They have a chance. Need the running game back on track though, and will be disappointed to lose to a fellow wild-card prospect in Minnesota last week.

15) Denver Broncos - Will probably contrive to lose at Kansas City, such is their unpredictable nature. Jay Cutler is as good a QB in the league right now, but this team needs to prove it can get it done over time, not just it's first three games.

16) Arizona Cardinals Dizzy heights for the Cards, but a loss in Washington is nothing to panic about. In a weak division, the Cards find themselves playoff bound by default. With the Seahawks on a Bye, this week is a big chance to take a 2 game lead in the NFC West.

The rest:

17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

18) Baltimore Ravens

19) Cleveland Browns

20) Chicago Bears

21) New York Jets

22) Minnesota Vikings

23) Seattle Seahawks

24) Atlanta Falcons

25) Houston Texans

26) Miami Dolphins

27) Cincinnati Bengals

28) Detroit Lions

29) Oakland Raiders

30) San Francisco 49ers

31) Kansas City Chiefs

32) St. Louis Rams

Fantasy team of the week - Week three

Last week we had mixed success with team of the week. The Raiders D, for example, that we picked in our 'under the radar' section, was the second highest scoring Defensive unit, behind only the Giants. The difference? You can pick the Oakland D up on waivers in most leagues.

On the other hand, we got Greg Olsen and Joey Galloway wrong. Olsen - much to our embarrassment - fumbled twice, thus rendering him with negative points in many leagues. Similarly, Galloway was innefective and will not even play this week because of the injury sustained in week two.

So, moving onto this weekend, we'll give you two options at each position:

QB1: Aaron Rodgers, GBP vs DAL
QB2: Carson Palmer, CIN @ NYG

RB1: Frank Gore, SFO vs DET
RB2: Clinton Portis, WAS vs ARI

WR1: Steve Smith, CAR @ MIN
WR2: Calvin Johnson, DET @ SFO

TE1: Tony Gonzalez, KCC @ ATL
TE2: Kellen Winslow, CLE @ BAL

K1: Jason Elam, ATL vs KCC
K2: Joe Nedney, SFO vs DET

DEF1: Chicago, vs TBB
DEF2: New York Jets @ SDC

Week Three Predictions

Apologies for the lack of a power rankings this weekend. We could easily knock them up quickly, but it's not fair to you lot if we don't put as much thought into them as we usually do. The good news is that next week is our own 'bye week', and therefore there'll be more midweek content than usual.

Today though, we're concentrating on predictions. Last weekend we were 11 of 15, and could have been even better had the Seahawks not lost in Overtime to San Francisco, and Ed Hochuli had his glasses on.

Anyway, here's our calls this week:

Kansas City @ Atlanta

As we said last week, the Falcons are some way from being consistently as good as their week one performance showed. On the other hand, the Chiefs look like a team struggling to gel, and last weekend's outburst from Larry Johnson - arguably the team's best offensive weapon - was indicative of the battle that Herm Edwards faces keeping veterans happy in a youthful team. Atlanta at least have that unity, and should take advantage on the ground. Are people now firmly aboard our 'Jerious Norwood Bandwagon'? They should be.


Oakland @ Buffalo

Let's not get carried away - the Bills are not contenders just yet. Two wins against teams that were heavily tipped in preseason (Seattle and Jacksonville) have flattered the Bills somewhat, but that is not to say they are a bad team. You can only beat the team that comes and plays on a Sunday, and that has left the Bills with a great stretch of winnable games, with Oakland, St, Louis, and Arizona next up before the Bye week. Oakland's ground game took a hit when Justin Fargas was lost for this game at least, and it's hard to imagine JaMarcus Russell tearing apart a relatively strong Bills Defence after his abysmal effort last week against a lacklustre Chiefs D.

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

Tipping the Bears for the first time this season has made us think about how good they really are. Are they who we thought they were? No, so we'll let them off the hook. We could do that joke every week.

In all seriousness, a beat-up Bucs team will struggle against a Defence that just oozes 'playmaker' from every pore. If it's Defensive plays you're looking for, then watch the Bears any week, as they are guaranteed to score in a relatively humorous manner. The X-factor here could be Bucs QB Brian Griese, who spent the last two years in Chicago and knows the Defence inside out.


Carolina @ Minnesota

The news that Adrian Peterson could be out on Sunday had no real bearing on this pick. The Panthers have started strongly and are playoff contenders, and that was without Steve Smith. Smith is a clutch player who regularly comes up trumps when the expectation level is high - as it is tomorrow. The Vikings will have Gus Frerrote under centre. That is all that you need to know about how much trouble this team is in.

Miami @ New England

Look, the Pats will probably win this, but get on the Dolphins to beat the spread! We got +12.5, and thinking about it, that's a bargain. Miami are nowhere near as bad as that makes out, and this could even be a relatively close game if the Pats start slowly. Dare we say the 'fins could win? Yeah, we do. This is no gimme by any stretch of the imagination, and it's only the strong Patriots defence that stops us taking Miami.

Yeah, we said that.


Cincinnati @ New York Giants

Like Miami, Cincinnati could beat the spread, but realistically, the Giants should get another win on Sunday. We've asked it before, but is Marvin Lewis serious putting that defence on the field every week? Perhaps the team would stand a better chance if he replaced the Cornerbacks and Safeties with Traffic Cones, and the D-line with some sandbags. Whatever happens, they'll struggle to tackle Brandon Jacobs, who will relish the prospect of taking on such a poor linebacking corps. It's a great pity that Carson Palmer is tied to this team, as talent-wise, he is in the upper echelon of passers in the league. Sadly, he might be remembered as the guy who had just one winning season in his career with the team.


Houston @ Tennessee

Really? Ok, we like Tennessee, but we REALLY like Houston. People can say that the team struggled in week one against Pittsburgh, but plenty of teams will do that. One thing that makes us doubt Tennessee is that Kerry Collins is not a starting Quarterback in this league anymore. That has been proved over time, and he has only ever shown flashes of his talent when called upon recently. Pressure from a strong Houston defensive line could expose him after what amounted to a flag-football contest against the Bengals last week.


Arizona @ Washington

This is a difficult matchup to predict. The Cards have started well, but against weak opposition. The 'skins have been patchy, but managed a good win against a strong team last week against the Saints. What does it mean? Probably a high scoring affair that one team will just edge. We'll plump for the home team and Jason Campbell, though Kurt Warner's early form is something to behold. The Matt Leinart era is a speck on the horizon as things stand. of course, Warner is one of those 'things' and he is not renowned for his ability to 'stand' for a 16 game season.

Do you see what we did?


New Orleans @ Denver

We were wrong about the Broncos. Nothing makes a team more likable than gutsy, maverick calls in the final seconds of a game. Going for two points last week against the Chargers exposed not just Shanahan's confidence in his players, but their confidence in themselves. Jay Cutler looked like a man who genuinely wanted the chance to win, not someone who was afraid of losing.

Unfortunately, we'll stick with the Saints, who - despite looking patchy this season - have a player who Cutler aspires to be, in Drew Brees. A big question mark for this offence is the loss of Marques Colston, but somehow this team always manages to find a big play from one of the other receivers in what is an underrated group.


St. Louis @ Seattle

This is a horror show. The Rams are far and away the worst team in the NFL, but the Seahawks have struggled to score points without their three top receivers. Can the Rams get going? Unlikely against a strong D in Seattle, and they will not relish this game after an opening to the season that sees Scott Linehan treading on thin ice. It would be no surprise to see him axed after this game. One potential situation we would love to see? Ex-Seattle Kicker Josh Brown faced with the game winner in OT. Unless the score is 0-0, that is unlikely.

Detroit @ San Francisco

This could be a shootout. Mike Martz's new offence against the team that he galvanised offensively in the previous two seasons. The 49ers have the stronger Defence, but the Lions can lay claim to having one of the best passing games in the league. It's really a question of which team cracks first. Two things we'd say are certainties are that Frank Gore should make mincemeat of the Lions Defence, and that Calvin Johnson will dominate the 49ers secondary.


Cleveland @ Baltimore

A divisional matchup that is tricky to call after the Ravens missed a week following Hurricane Ike. Joe Flacco showed promise in week one, but then so did Matt Ryan, and look how that turned out for Atlanta in his second game. Altogether, a lot of people are quick to forget that this is essentially a 'strength vs strength' matchup, as the Cleveland Offensive steam train crashes into the buffers of a Baltimore defence that proves itself week in-week out as one of the truly great units of the modern era. Did we mention we're still picking the Browns?


Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Nightmare pick. Neither team has looked strong, but the Colts edged a tight game last week, something that they needed to get truly back into the swing of things. The Jags are horrendous without their offensive line, and again, it's hard to see where the yards will come from on the ground. That same thing could be said for either team, but the Colts have an air attack that should be rejuvenated with TE Dallas Clark back in the lineup.


Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

All aboard the Steelers bandwagon. I'll be honest, and say from a personal perspective, the Steelers have always been one of the teams that annoyed me. God knows what it was - probably Bill Cowher - but they were one of the teams it was always hard to like unless you were a fully paid-up terrible towel-wielding lunatic. Ben Roethisberger is an underrated player though, probably the third best Quarterback to play since the turn of the millennium. His ability to keep a seemingly dead play alive could hurt the Eagles.

To be fair to Philly, they have tried to veer away from shouldering Brian Westbrook with their entire offensive load, and it has shown in the emergence of DeSean Jackson as a major weapon. This is one of the best matchups in week three, and we expect a tight, low scoring engagement.

Dallas @ Green Bay

If we'd have completed our Power Rankings this week, the Packers would have jumped to number one, even with the Cowboys winning a difficult game against the Eagles last Monday. Put simply, the Packers have a team that is dangerous in all three phases of the game, and Aaron Rodgers proved that he has the physical and psychological toughness to pull a result out, even when momentum seems to be with his opponents. Not only that, but when the team needed a defensive stand, the team responded.

This week is a big early test of the Superbowl credentials of these two teams. Don't bet against this being the NFC conference finals matchup either, as both teams have a great chance to secure home field advantage in January. This week, we prefer the hot hand of Rodgers, but it'll be close.


New York Jets @ San Diego

Will L.T. play? It's certainly not looking good if you go by the noises coming from the Chargers camp, and even if he did play, will we see a replay of last week, when he was forced to leave the game early? As we write, he is pencilled in to start week three, but it would be a surprise if he was as effective as the L.T. we have known in recent years. All of this gives the Jets a huge psychological boost heading into Monday Night, and at the very least, if you're a betting man, get on them now to beat the 8.5pt spread. Like the Bills, the Jets have flattered to deceive lately, but that should not detract from the improvements made in the offseason. Brett Favre is a game winner, and has the balls to win any game he plays in.