I've long campaigned that playing the Super Bowl only in domed or warm weather climates detracts from the character of the greatest show on earth.
Think of some of the more iconic moments in the NFL over the years, and some of the greatest images come from games where the elements have come into play. From the great Bears-Packers rivalry that regularly features games below freezing, the AFC championship game between Indianapolis and New England in 2003 in the snow, and the now infamous 'tuck rule' game between the Patriots and Oakland in 2002. Hey, even Santa getting pelted with snowballs in Philadelphia - it was all part of the game, and when you watch a retrospective on any of these moments, the weather simply adds to the memories.
The NFL insists that to host a superbowl, the city must have an average temperature of 50 degrees or more - or else be played in a dome. Whilst I don't have a problem with common sense being applied, it seems a shame that so many stadiums are automatically disqualified from selection on the grounds of their location. Ok, so playing in Lambeau or Soldier Field may be a stretch in February. We all know that secretly even the Packers and Bears players would rather be in a warmer climate, but it annoys me that other cities with more moderate weather are also excluded from the list.
The most obvious example would be Kansas City, who were forced to withdraw their bid to host the Super Bowl in 2015 because Arrowhead does not have a roof, and Jackson County narrowly denied the Chiefs funding to build one in time. The temperature in Missouri at this time of year is not particularly helpful to the cause, but should that prohibit a team from hosting the game? In my view, no.
New York (or New Jersey if we are going to be pedantic) is the next city to try it's luck at a Superbowl, with the new Giants/Jets stadium widely expected to bid for the big game in 2014 or 2015. There has been a massive investment in new stadia in the league in recent years, and the idea of Jerry Jones showcasing his new stadium in Dallas whilst the home of the Giants and Jets goes without is not something that sits well with those who have funded the plan.
Unfortunately, with no roof in place, the stadium faces an uphill struggle to convince the league that it is capable of hosting a superbowl with no disruption from inclement weather in the area. The problem is not just on the field, but the logistical issues that could arise in the event of a freak snowstorm on the east coast.
One such as hit yesterday, and is expected to hit New York today?
The timing could not be worse, coming as it does at the crucial point where the majority of fans will be arriving in the host city for the weekend. Of course, in my view, some snow should not detract from the bid, but an epic storm of this scale cannot help but place another element of doubt in the owners' minds that their biggest showcase event could become a farce - or even worse, be postponed - if New York hosts the game. Even the smallest amount of chance will likely count heavily against northern stadiums, so unfortunately, I don't envisage any situation where the league allows a cold weather city to host the game outdoors in the near future.
Not unless there's an awful lot of money changing hands somewhere...
Saturday, 6 February 2010
Tuesday, 2 February 2010
Bush faces the career crossroads on Sunday
Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday will be the biggest sporting event in New Orleans history, but for one player, it will also define his career path, and possibly his legacy in the city.
The Saints have a decision to make at some point this offseason. Do they pay Reggie Bush, their number two overall pick in 2006 a whopping $8m salary next season, do they ask him to rework his contract, or do they cash in and trade him to a willing suitor in his former college coach, Pete Carroll? The good news for the Saints is that the decision rests more in what Bush does on Sunday than on his previous body of work.
Make no mistake about it, if Reggie Bush contributes in a meaningful way this Sunday, he will be back in the bayou next year. The Saints are a franchise rooted very much at the centre of their community, and it is difficult to see them parting ways with Bush if he is seen as a hero by the fans. If the Saints win, the party will last a long time, but when it is over, those tough business decisions may seem a little easier with the uncapped year ahead and fans idolising a player who helped bring the biggest prize of all to New Orleans.
Of course, in such a situation, the Saints would inevitably attempt to restructure the rookie contract Bush signed, but the big problem may be that Bush would hold all of the leverage, and by playing chicken with the team, he would win that battle.
If, on the other hand, Bush is anonymous in a Saints loss, or even has a bad game and the team wins, the boot is well and truly on the other foot. Is he a bust? Not quite. he's unconventional for his position and draft slot, but he has contributed in his own fashion over the last few years. There's no doubt that he shows flashes of brilliance and changes games occasionally with a burst of speed, but until the divisional playoffs, Bush had shown little sign of being able to run between the tackles or carry much of a load from the backfield.
The truth is he just doesn't fit the mould, and rather like Josh Cribbs, that makes his contribution very difficult to evaluate. Fans may love Cribbs as a return man, but he wants to be paid as a wide receiver. Similarly, Bush is great catching swing passes and screens out of the backfield, or running back punts, but he was drafted as a running back second overall. You don't pay that type of player $8m unless he is guaranteed to contribute in more conventional terms over the course of your season. The harsh reality of business in the NFL is that you can get paid better as an average player who contributes no big plays but plays a traditional role in an offence, than a dynamic player who's value varies from team to team.
The general consensus is that at some point Carroll will look to upgrade the running back position in Seattle, and that New Orleans may be his first port of call if he believes he can swing a trade for the guy he coached at USC. If not Carroll though, who will take Bush? There will be suitors, but how many of them will pay him the $8m? That is why Sunday matters so much. It will either strengthen or weaken the market that he will use as leverage this season. Play well, and Bush can stay in New Orleans and bask in the adulation for a few more years on money that the fans will be happy to see him take. Play badly and he could be looking at a trade to whoever is desperate enough to risk big money on a player who has shown he can't carry the load. Those teams don't tend to be among the perennial contenders...
Reggie Bush enters the biggest game of his career on Sunday - in every sense.
The Saints have a decision to make at some point this offseason. Do they pay Reggie Bush, their number two overall pick in 2006 a whopping $8m salary next season, do they ask him to rework his contract, or do they cash in and trade him to a willing suitor in his former college coach, Pete Carroll? The good news for the Saints is that the decision rests more in what Bush does on Sunday than on his previous body of work.
Make no mistake about it, if Reggie Bush contributes in a meaningful way this Sunday, he will be back in the bayou next year. The Saints are a franchise rooted very much at the centre of their community, and it is difficult to see them parting ways with Bush if he is seen as a hero by the fans. If the Saints win, the party will last a long time, but when it is over, those tough business decisions may seem a little easier with the uncapped year ahead and fans idolising a player who helped bring the biggest prize of all to New Orleans.
Of course, in such a situation, the Saints would inevitably attempt to restructure the rookie contract Bush signed, but the big problem may be that Bush would hold all of the leverage, and by playing chicken with the team, he would win that battle.
If, on the other hand, Bush is anonymous in a Saints loss, or even has a bad game and the team wins, the boot is well and truly on the other foot. Is he a bust? Not quite. he's unconventional for his position and draft slot, but he has contributed in his own fashion over the last few years. There's no doubt that he shows flashes of brilliance and changes games occasionally with a burst of speed, but until the divisional playoffs, Bush had shown little sign of being able to run between the tackles or carry much of a load from the backfield.
The truth is he just doesn't fit the mould, and rather like Josh Cribbs, that makes his contribution very difficult to evaluate. Fans may love Cribbs as a return man, but he wants to be paid as a wide receiver. Similarly, Bush is great catching swing passes and screens out of the backfield, or running back punts, but he was drafted as a running back second overall. You don't pay that type of player $8m unless he is guaranteed to contribute in more conventional terms over the course of your season. The harsh reality of business in the NFL is that you can get paid better as an average player who contributes no big plays but plays a traditional role in an offence, than a dynamic player who's value varies from team to team.
The general consensus is that at some point Carroll will look to upgrade the running back position in Seattle, and that New Orleans may be his first port of call if he believes he can swing a trade for the guy he coached at USC. If not Carroll though, who will take Bush? There will be suitors, but how many of them will pay him the $8m? That is why Sunday matters so much. It will either strengthen or weaken the market that he will use as leverage this season. Play well, and Bush can stay in New Orleans and bask in the adulation for a few more years on money that the fans will be happy to see him take. Play badly and he could be looking at a trade to whoever is desperate enough to risk big money on a player who has shown he can't carry the load. Those teams don't tend to be among the perennial contenders...
Reggie Bush enters the biggest game of his career on Sunday - in every sense.
Monday, 1 February 2010
Pre-free agency team needs
If there's one thing that annoys me in life, it's mock drafts and the frenzy around them. I don't know if Ndamukong Suh will go to St. Louis no.1 overall, nobody does - even the Rams themselves. For now, let's just get a state of play for the 'top' three teams in the draft. These needs will change in the next few months as players are cut and free agents are signed, but they are still handy when evaluating which direction teams are likely to go both in free agency and the draft.
St. Louis Rams.
1: Defensive Tackle
2: Quarterback
3: Tight End
4: Guard
5: Cornerback
The Rams have pretty obvious needs. The interior linemen on both sides of the ball are average and need replacing this offseason if the team is to have any chance of winning next year. There are players with potential in both of those lines, but the weak links inside are hurting this team week in week out. Tight End is a perennial position of need, and I fully expect the Rams to be aggressive either in free agency or the draft at this position, especially as Randy McMichael - an average player at best - will likely not be re-signed.
Quarterback is more complicated. The top two consensus players in the draft would be Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, but if they aren't sold enough on either to give them the big money at number one overall, maybe they'll take a chance on a project QB such as Tony Pike, who could well be ready to play at some point in 2010 should Marc Bulger either not return or play poorly.
If they don't address it through the draft, the QB free agency class is thin, with nobody the team could build a team around for more than a year or two. Perhaps Chad Pennington combined with a younger player in the draft may be the option that they settle for, or there is the intriguing option of trading for a player who has starting experience but may be available. Michael Vick is one of the few who are young enough to build a team around, though we all know that he comes with baggage. Apart from that the restricted players such as Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell and Kellen Clemens are all too patchy in their bodies of work to spend the necessary draft picks to prise them away from the tenders placed on them by their current teams.
Detroit Lions
1: Offensive Tackle
2: Defensive Tackle
3: Guard
4: Cornerback
5: Defensive End
The Lions need an offensive line desperately, and finding a guy to protect Matthew Stafford would be a sound investment. They also lack an interior rusher, which is a common theme for many of the teams at the top of this year's draft. I would class the need to partner a premier left tackle with your franchise QB as slightly higher than the need to find a big body on defence, but realistically both need to be addressed very soon. I don't see the Lions going for a veteran OT when they still have Jeff Backus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the restricted linemen that are currently slated to hit free agency.
Jahri Evans of the Saints is the standout guy who deserves to get paid this year as far as the guards go, and their are also good options at tackle in Donald Penn (Tampa), Jared Gaither (Baltimore) and Marcus McNeill (San Diego) who may be worth the compensation package that is needed to sign them as RFA's. All three have age on their side and experience in the league.
If I were to make that particular decision, I'd probably head down the route of getting an RFA in at tackle, and taking a Defensive lineman with the second overall pick. One of the crucial factors could be that many of the UFA DT's available this year are either better fits in a 3-4 scheme or they're likely to be franchise tagged by their current teams. The price for getting a player away from such a tag is too much for the Lions, who may well need every draft pick they've got as they try to rebuild from Matt Millen's era.
The secondary in Detroit deserves a quick mention too. They have been consistently one of the worst overall units in the last five years (see also: Kansas City receivers, Bears QB's) and they absolutely need an overhaul immediately. They are shambolic against the pass, and no amount of protection for Matt Stafford will stop teams scoring almost at will against this team. Louis Delmas was a start, but bringing in ageing or average veterans such as Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry and Will James has simply compounded the problem. Eric Berry could solve their Strong Safety woes alongside Delmas, but I have to say that it's hard to put that need above the need for linemen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1: Defensive Tackle
2: Wide Receiver
3: Defensive End
4: Offensive Tackle
5: Cornerback
The Bucs are not the worst team in the league by some stretch. A lot of their problems can be traced down to poor coaching and a lack of stability over the last few years. With Josh Freeman now pretty much entrenched as the starter and future of the team, look for better play without much addition next season. They lack true dominance on the defensive line, which as we all know was a hallmark of the Super Bowl winning team of 2002. They have never quite replaced Warren Sapp, Anthony McFarland, or Simeon Rice, so look for them to address either DT or DE with the number 3 pick overall. The draft is deep at those positions, and it would make more sense than trading for an established player with little to prove.
As mentioned previously, Donald Penn is an RFA, as is Jeremy Trueblood, so OT could become a position of huge need should the team lose both players. Of course, this is unlikely, but the team could still opt to address the position at some point this offseason and let one of those players leave if the right deal comes along.
The greatest position of need on offence is clearly at wide receiver, where Antonio Bryant spent much of the year injured after receiving the franchise tag in '09 and will likely leave in free agency. The roster looks like a WR graveyard, as Mark Bradley, Michael Clayton, Bryant and Maurice Stovall all attempt to prove themselves worthy of a big contract despite being first day picks at the start of their NFL careers. I think the Bucs could look to get a new player in to build chemistry with Freeman, though it should be noted that TE Kellen Winslow is as good a receiving TE as you will find in the game, so perhaps the team will attempt to retain Bryant if they don't like the very thin receivers in the draft and free agency.
St. Louis Rams.
1: Defensive Tackle
2: Quarterback
3: Tight End
4: Guard
5: Cornerback
The Rams have pretty obvious needs. The interior linemen on both sides of the ball are average and need replacing this offseason if the team is to have any chance of winning next year. There are players with potential in both of those lines, but the weak links inside are hurting this team week in week out. Tight End is a perennial position of need, and I fully expect the Rams to be aggressive either in free agency or the draft at this position, especially as Randy McMichael - an average player at best - will likely not be re-signed.
Quarterback is more complicated. The top two consensus players in the draft would be Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen, but if they aren't sold enough on either to give them the big money at number one overall, maybe they'll take a chance on a project QB such as Tony Pike, who could well be ready to play at some point in 2010 should Marc Bulger either not return or play poorly.
If they don't address it through the draft, the QB free agency class is thin, with nobody the team could build a team around for more than a year or two. Perhaps Chad Pennington combined with a younger player in the draft may be the option that they settle for, or there is the intriguing option of trading for a player who has starting experience but may be available. Michael Vick is one of the few who are young enough to build a team around, though we all know that he comes with baggage. Apart from that the restricted players such as Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell and Kellen Clemens are all too patchy in their bodies of work to spend the necessary draft picks to prise them away from the tenders placed on them by their current teams.
Detroit Lions
1: Offensive Tackle
2: Defensive Tackle
3: Guard
4: Cornerback
5: Defensive End
The Lions need an offensive line desperately, and finding a guy to protect Matthew Stafford would be a sound investment. They also lack an interior rusher, which is a common theme for many of the teams at the top of this year's draft. I would class the need to partner a premier left tackle with your franchise QB as slightly higher than the need to find a big body on defence, but realistically both need to be addressed very soon. I don't see the Lions going for a veteran OT when they still have Jeff Backus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at the restricted linemen that are currently slated to hit free agency.
Jahri Evans of the Saints is the standout guy who deserves to get paid this year as far as the guards go, and their are also good options at tackle in Donald Penn (Tampa), Jared Gaither (Baltimore) and Marcus McNeill (San Diego) who may be worth the compensation package that is needed to sign them as RFA's. All three have age on their side and experience in the league.
If I were to make that particular decision, I'd probably head down the route of getting an RFA in at tackle, and taking a Defensive lineman with the second overall pick. One of the crucial factors could be that many of the UFA DT's available this year are either better fits in a 3-4 scheme or they're likely to be franchise tagged by their current teams. The price for getting a player away from such a tag is too much for the Lions, who may well need every draft pick they've got as they try to rebuild from Matt Millen's era.
The secondary in Detroit deserves a quick mention too. They have been consistently one of the worst overall units in the last five years (see also: Kansas City receivers, Bears QB's) and they absolutely need an overhaul immediately. They are shambolic against the pass, and no amount of protection for Matt Stafford will stop teams scoring almost at will against this team. Louis Delmas was a start, but bringing in ageing or average veterans such as Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry and Will James has simply compounded the problem. Eric Berry could solve their Strong Safety woes alongside Delmas, but I have to say that it's hard to put that need above the need for linemen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1: Defensive Tackle
2: Wide Receiver
3: Defensive End
4: Offensive Tackle
5: Cornerback
The Bucs are not the worst team in the league by some stretch. A lot of their problems can be traced down to poor coaching and a lack of stability over the last few years. With Josh Freeman now pretty much entrenched as the starter and future of the team, look for better play without much addition next season. They lack true dominance on the defensive line, which as we all know was a hallmark of the Super Bowl winning team of 2002. They have never quite replaced Warren Sapp, Anthony McFarland, or Simeon Rice, so look for them to address either DT or DE with the number 3 pick overall. The draft is deep at those positions, and it would make more sense than trading for an established player with little to prove.
As mentioned previously, Donald Penn is an RFA, as is Jeremy Trueblood, so OT could become a position of huge need should the team lose both players. Of course, this is unlikely, but the team could still opt to address the position at some point this offseason and let one of those players leave if the right deal comes along.
The greatest position of need on offence is clearly at wide receiver, where Antonio Bryant spent much of the year injured after receiving the franchise tag in '09 and will likely leave in free agency. The roster looks like a WR graveyard, as Mark Bradley, Michael Clayton, Bryant and Maurice Stovall all attempt to prove themselves worthy of a big contract despite being first day picks at the start of their NFL careers. I think the Bucs could look to get a new player in to build chemistry with Freeman, though it should be noted that TE Kellen Winslow is as good a receiving TE as you will find in the game, so perhaps the team will attempt to retain Bryant if they don't like the very thin receivers in the draft and free agency.
Breaking down Superbowl XLIV
Well I've batted at .500 since Wild Card weekend, but I most certainly can't do that this week, as there's only one game - and it's the one that matters most. New Orleans and Indianapolis travel to Miami for Superbowl XLIV. Let's take a look at some key factors affecting the game this week.
The Quarterbacks
Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.
Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.
Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.
You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.
Offensive weapons
Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.
I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.
For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.
The Defences
In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.
Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.
I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?
My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.
If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.
Prediction
I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.
My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.
Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.
Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.
The Quarterbacks
Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.
Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.
Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.
You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.
Offensive weapons
Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.
I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.
For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.
The Defences
In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.
Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.
I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?
My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.
If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.
Prediction
I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.
My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.
Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.
Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.
Sunday, 31 January 2010
Tebow's draft stock takes a hit at Senior Bowl
Shortly after I posted an article breaking down the QB class of 2010 a few weeks back now, Florida QB Tim Tebow announced his participation in the Senior Bowl.
To say that Tebow's decision was a surprise is perhaps a stretch. He had previously shown no indication that he would take part, whilst commentators (including myself) were against the idea on the basis that it could highlight his weaknesses, rather than show off the skills that have already been displayed over 40 starts with the Gators. On the other hand, he has shown a ready desire to improve, and as he mentioned during an NFL Network interview on Tuesday, he just loves the idea of competing. In many ways, it was almost inevitable that as the consensus grew that he would decline to take part, he would go against that grain.
Unfortunately for Tebow, his decision has produced mixed results. Whilst his desire and competitive nature are not in question, his mechanics, footwork, and decision making will certainly be under even more scrutiny at Florida's pro-day in march after a poor performance under center in Mobile. Perhaps worst of all, sleeper prospects Tony Pike (Cincinnati) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) and Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) all performed better than Tebow over the course of the week, meaning that he now has far greater competition at the position than was expected. I'll summarise the emergence of those three QB's at the end of this post, but first, more on the man we will spend more time discussing in the next few months than any other.
Tebow's most obvious problem in drills this week was clearly his elongated, low-slung arm position when throwing the ball. There is not a team in the NFL that would consider him anything other than a liability with the football right now, something that he is aware of and that he made a conscious effort to rectify and improve over the week. The strides weren't great, but the willingness to change will have helped his stock slightly. During the game itself however, Tebow reverted back to his more comfortable style of throwing and that has to be another concern about a guy who needs to show that he is a quick learner to succeed at the next level.
A lot of people are incensed that a guy considered to be one of, if not the single greatest college players of all time is tabbed as a third rounder by some analysts. The best way of summarising why they are wrong is probably to watch Tebow's performance against the upper echelon of college talent that he faced over this week. The sad fact is that his athleticism is slightly exaggerated to the extent where people consider him to be a 'dual threat', but as we can see simply by watching his rushing plays last night, the talent against him when he reaches the next level will not allow him to rush with the success he achieved in college.
Tebow's footwork and overall discomfort in a pro-style offence were big red-flags to me. I particularly don't like his habit of turning his back to the play, and a factor that has rarely been discussed is that as a left hander, his 'best' lineman (ie: his left offensive tackle) will not be protecting his blind side, meaning that turning his back on defences could be even more of a problem in the NFL. There have been plenty of successful NFL lefties (Steve Young, Michael Vick, Boomer Esaison) but none of these players had the other problems that Tebow is facing as they prepared for the draft.
Saturday night may well have cemented to me that Tebow cannot be considered a first round pick by anyone who does not have an ulterior motive for seeing him drafted that highly. I add that caveat simply because there are a few franchises in Jacksonville, Buffalo and Oakland who could well buy into the 'cult of Tebow' and select him based on his popularity, rather than his footballing ability. All three are desperate for a 'face' of their franchise, and I would think that they would be among the first teams to consider him at some stage of the draft.
The problems during the game were there for everyone to see, and as I mentioned earlier, Pike, LeFevour and Robinson all made big strides (though of course not as long as Tebow's...) throughout the week. Pike is widely considered to be the most likely player to rise in mock drafts in the run up to the draft, so whilst his performance in the game itself was perhaps nothing to write home about, his overall impression over the week was that he can certainly make the transition to a pro-style offence a lot quicker than some other prospects. LeFevour (ranked joint 5th with Pike on Mike Mayock's draft board) looked good too, and made big strides by posting solid numbers on Saturday. His arm strength is better than advertised, and with a mistake-free performance he has likely improved his stock more than Zac Robinson, who despite his decent outing during the game, perhaps lacks the arm strength and accuracy needed to genuinely be considered as a mid-round pick.
With all of this in mind, how has this affected how I see the QB class of 2010? Well, it's important to remember that the two juniors who arguably could be first round picks, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen, didn't lose anything this week, so I think their status as the top two prospects is relatively assured entering the combine.
So entering February the QB class stands as follows:
1 Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
2 Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
3 Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
4 Tim Tebow (Florida)
5 Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6 Colt McCoy (Texas)
Of note in recent weeks is Bradford's rise, with it now looking fairly likely that a team in the top 10 will take a shot at him. Clausen's stock in turn must rise on the basis that if Bradford is gone, then other teams looking at QB's will perhaps consider him. Personally I consider him a second round talent, but as I have pointed out numerous times: If you're convinced that a guy can be your franchise QB, there is no such thing as a reach. Similarly though, I maintain that if you are not high on a guy, the worst thing you can do is saddle your franchise with a highly paid young player who will likely prevent you drafting another QB for a number of years. Ironically, I would consider Clausen's former ND team mate Brady Quinn to be an excellent example of a team drafting a player who they were never entirely sold on.
Colt McCoy is higher on Mike Mayock's board than Tim Tebow, which I find intriguing because I generally tend to think along the same lines as him as far as the transition from college to the pros at most positions. Mayock watches a lot of film, but most importantly, he pays a lot of attention to the pro game too, which is something that perhaps explains why some other experts are wildly off with their mock drafts. McCoy for me doesn't possess the intangibles and the accuracy to be a franchise QB in the NFL, and it seems more likely that he will go to a team as a backup and have a Colt Brennan-esque life of never quite being considered for the top gig.
My final thoughts go back to Tim Tebow. Sure some scouts are still curious about 'slash' players, but an NFL QB is built from the head downwards. You can be a great runner, but unless you can throw the ball, manage the game, lead your team, you will not make your way to the very top. Tim Tebow is not even a great runner. He's a good guy, with an excellent work ethic and the chance to one day play in some capacity in the NFL. This week has reaffirmed my position though, that a team selecting him should have a guy who they trust for the next two years minimum before they can rely on Tebow.
To put the concept of athleticism at the QB position into perspective, I'll give you the five of the best QB's of the 00's: Manning, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees. If you were building your ideal QB from these hall of fame calibre players, tell me which guy would you take the running skills from?
Exactly.
To say that Tebow's decision was a surprise is perhaps a stretch. He had previously shown no indication that he would take part, whilst commentators (including myself) were against the idea on the basis that it could highlight his weaknesses, rather than show off the skills that have already been displayed over 40 starts with the Gators. On the other hand, he has shown a ready desire to improve, and as he mentioned during an NFL Network interview on Tuesday, he just loves the idea of competing. In many ways, it was almost inevitable that as the consensus grew that he would decline to take part, he would go against that grain.
Unfortunately for Tebow, his decision has produced mixed results. Whilst his desire and competitive nature are not in question, his mechanics, footwork, and decision making will certainly be under even more scrutiny at Florida's pro-day in march after a poor performance under center in Mobile. Perhaps worst of all, sleeper prospects Tony Pike (Cincinnati) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) and Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) all performed better than Tebow over the course of the week, meaning that he now has far greater competition at the position than was expected. I'll summarise the emergence of those three QB's at the end of this post, but first, more on the man we will spend more time discussing in the next few months than any other.
Tebow's most obvious problem in drills this week was clearly his elongated, low-slung arm position when throwing the ball. There is not a team in the NFL that would consider him anything other than a liability with the football right now, something that he is aware of and that he made a conscious effort to rectify and improve over the week. The strides weren't great, but the willingness to change will have helped his stock slightly. During the game itself however, Tebow reverted back to his more comfortable style of throwing and that has to be another concern about a guy who needs to show that he is a quick learner to succeed at the next level.
A lot of people are incensed that a guy considered to be one of, if not the single greatest college players of all time is tabbed as a third rounder by some analysts. The best way of summarising why they are wrong is probably to watch Tebow's performance against the upper echelon of college talent that he faced over this week. The sad fact is that his athleticism is slightly exaggerated to the extent where people consider him to be a 'dual threat', but as we can see simply by watching his rushing plays last night, the talent against him when he reaches the next level will not allow him to rush with the success he achieved in college.
Tebow's footwork and overall discomfort in a pro-style offence were big red-flags to me. I particularly don't like his habit of turning his back to the play, and a factor that has rarely been discussed is that as a left hander, his 'best' lineman (ie: his left offensive tackle) will not be protecting his blind side, meaning that turning his back on defences could be even more of a problem in the NFL. There have been plenty of successful NFL lefties (Steve Young, Michael Vick, Boomer Esaison) but none of these players had the other problems that Tebow is facing as they prepared for the draft.
Saturday night may well have cemented to me that Tebow cannot be considered a first round pick by anyone who does not have an ulterior motive for seeing him drafted that highly. I add that caveat simply because there are a few franchises in Jacksonville, Buffalo and Oakland who could well buy into the 'cult of Tebow' and select him based on his popularity, rather than his footballing ability. All three are desperate for a 'face' of their franchise, and I would think that they would be among the first teams to consider him at some stage of the draft.
The problems during the game were there for everyone to see, and as I mentioned earlier, Pike, LeFevour and Robinson all made big strides (though of course not as long as Tebow's...) throughout the week. Pike is widely considered to be the most likely player to rise in mock drafts in the run up to the draft, so whilst his performance in the game itself was perhaps nothing to write home about, his overall impression over the week was that he can certainly make the transition to a pro-style offence a lot quicker than some other prospects. LeFevour (ranked joint 5th with Pike on Mike Mayock's draft board) looked good too, and made big strides by posting solid numbers on Saturday. His arm strength is better than advertised, and with a mistake-free performance he has likely improved his stock more than Zac Robinson, who despite his decent outing during the game, perhaps lacks the arm strength and accuracy needed to genuinely be considered as a mid-round pick.
With all of this in mind, how has this affected how I see the QB class of 2010? Well, it's important to remember that the two juniors who arguably could be first round picks, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen, didn't lose anything this week, so I think their status as the top two prospects is relatively assured entering the combine.
So entering February the QB class stands as follows:
1 Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)
2 Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)
3 Tony Pike (Cincinnati)
4 Tim Tebow (Florida)
5 Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan)
6 Colt McCoy (Texas)
Of note in recent weeks is Bradford's rise, with it now looking fairly likely that a team in the top 10 will take a shot at him. Clausen's stock in turn must rise on the basis that if Bradford is gone, then other teams looking at QB's will perhaps consider him. Personally I consider him a second round talent, but as I have pointed out numerous times: If you're convinced that a guy can be your franchise QB, there is no such thing as a reach. Similarly though, I maintain that if you are not high on a guy, the worst thing you can do is saddle your franchise with a highly paid young player who will likely prevent you drafting another QB for a number of years. Ironically, I would consider Clausen's former ND team mate Brady Quinn to be an excellent example of a team drafting a player who they were never entirely sold on.
Colt McCoy is higher on Mike Mayock's board than Tim Tebow, which I find intriguing because I generally tend to think along the same lines as him as far as the transition from college to the pros at most positions. Mayock watches a lot of film, but most importantly, he pays a lot of attention to the pro game too, which is something that perhaps explains why some other experts are wildly off with their mock drafts. McCoy for me doesn't possess the intangibles and the accuracy to be a franchise QB in the NFL, and it seems more likely that he will go to a team as a backup and have a Colt Brennan-esque life of never quite being considered for the top gig.
My final thoughts go back to Tim Tebow. Sure some scouts are still curious about 'slash' players, but an NFL QB is built from the head downwards. You can be a great runner, but unless you can throw the ball, manage the game, lead your team, you will not make your way to the very top. Tim Tebow is not even a great runner. He's a good guy, with an excellent work ethic and the chance to one day play in some capacity in the NFL. This week has reaffirmed my position though, that a team selecting him should have a guy who they trust for the next two years minimum before they can rely on Tebow.
To put the concept of athleticism at the QB position into perspective, I'll give you the five of the best QB's of the 00's: Manning, Brady, Favre, Warner, Brees. If you were building your ideal QB from these hall of fame calibre players, tell me which guy would you take the running skills from?
Exactly.
Monday, 25 January 2010
Saints clinch NFC championship
And for the first time since 1993, there are two number one seeds in the Superbowl. An enthralling game that both teams tried their best to lose ended with Garrett Hartley's kick in OT. There are plenty of reasons for the Vikings essentially throwing the game away, some of which are unlucky, but in many ways, you may consider that any team that fumbles the ball as much as they did tonight can't have too many complaints about officiating.
There will be a huge inquest into the loss, but in the end, it's hard not to like the Saints. They're a great story for a city and a team that have had their fair share of lows in recent history. It's going to be a huge task for them to take on the Colts and win, but it would be a man with a stone cold heart that didn't acknowledge that if any team apart from their own had to win the big one, it might as well be New Orleans.
There will be a huge inquest into the loss, but in the end, it's hard not to like the Saints. They're a great story for a city and a team that have had their fair share of lows in recent history. It's going to be a huge task for them to take on the Colts and win, but it would be a man with a stone cold heart that didn't acknowledge that if any team apart from their own had to win the big one, it might as well be New Orleans.
Sunday, 24 January 2010
Jets fans get a harsh lesson from Peyton
So the Indianapolis Colts have defeated the Jets, barring an improbable comeback. This week I've been engaged in debate about my prediction of 30 points for the Colts against what has been an excellent Jets defence over the course of this season.
Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.
Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.
One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.
I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.
The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.
Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.
Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.
One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.
I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.
The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.
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