Showing posts with label Indianapolis Colts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indianapolis Colts. Show all posts

Monday, 1 February 2010

Breaking down Superbowl XLIV

Well I've batted at .500 since Wild Card weekend, but I most certainly can't do that this week, as there's only one game - and it's the one that matters most. New Orleans and Indianapolis travel to Miami for Superbowl XLIV. Let's take a look at some key factors affecting the game this week.

The Quarterbacks

Yes, it's official: The entire world loves Drew Brees. The New Orleans QB is so likeable that it really is hard not to root for him and the team in which he has made such a huge commitment. He is a model of how a player should deal with the 'business' side of the game, reciprocating the financial ties that the Saints forged by signing him in 2006 by devoting so much of his life to the New Orleans area. You sense that Brees looks likely to see out his career in New Orleans, one way or another.

Of course, if he wants an example of the kind of respect Louisiana has for it's favoured sons, then he can do worse than looking to his opposite number Peyton Manning's father, Archie, who led the Saints through their turbulent growing pains in the 70's. Despite his losing record and self-effacing view of his career, he is regarded as a Saints legend, and whatever happens on Sunday, it's no stretch to say that Drew Brees will join him in that all too small circle.

Peyton himself needs no hype, no introduction. The Colts' offence revolves around his decision-making and ability to read defences, so if he's on song, there is not a defence in the league that can stop him for a full game.

You have to give Manning the edge in this battle, but it is not black and white. Brees is knocking on the door of greatness himself, and I believe that he will be a hall of fame QB if he wins the big one this year. His numbers are actually not far away from Manning's, and with the exception of one year (2003) he has proved himself amongst the elite players in the league. If all that is missing is a ring, then expect a fully focused and more intense than ever Drew Brees this weekend.

Offensive weapons

Here's a key factor: Will the Saints attempt to run against the Colts, or are we looking at another potential shootout as both teams attempt to throw their way into the end zone? The dearth of receiving talent in this game is astounding. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore, Deverey Henderson... the list goes on. Even fringe players such as Saints tight end David Thomas are reliable receiving talents, so don't be surprised to see both teams come out throwing.

I think an interesting conundrum for the Saints is how heavily to emphasise the rush. There has been a lot made of how the Saints should play defensively, but in reality, their play may be dictated by what the Colts do. On the offensive side of the ball though, the Saints have a big advantage in that when they choose to, they can run with far more effectiveness than the Colts can. It should be noted that neither defence is very good against the run, so I like the idea of the Saints getting Pierre Thomas and perhaps Mike Bell involved early.

For the Colts, there is no doubt that the running game is a situational tool. No Colts RB has broken 100yds this season, so don't expect them to drastically change their mindset for this game. Dallas Clark is the player who I feel the Colts have gotten away from in recent weeks and I would like to see them get him involved early and often. Teams seem to be game planning more for Clark now than they did in the regular season, so the question is whether you go with experienced guys like Clark and Reggie Wayne, or continue to ride the hot hands in Collie and Garçon.

The Defences

In many ways the Saints and the Colts are relatively similar as far as how their defences are perceived. I think both have huge holes that can be taken advantage of, yet both manage to come up on just the right side of big games thanks to their playmaking ability. Both teams have savvy veterans and have improved on their traditional frailties, but I consider it somewhat of a falsehood that these are two defences are playing to a particularly high level.

Neither team is impressive against the run or the pass, and the recent weaknesses (The Saints against the pass, the Colts against the run) still remain. I think interestingly they face probably the worst teams they could hope to come up against, in that the players matched up against their weakest facets are quite capable of exploiting them at will.

I loved what the Saints did against the Vikings. I haven't seen a QB look so genuinely shell-shocked since... well whenever the last time I watched Detroit play was. Really though, that was excellently implemented by a team that knows if it allows a player to sit in the pocket, they are not capable of stopping the passing game. Will they go after Manning in the same way? Of course, and it will be the ultimate game of chicken. Can the Saints get there before Manning exploits the gaps they have left, or will they fall just short and allow him to beat them with a quick out to some of the best route runners in the league?

My money is on Manning. Favre was pretty close to doing exactly that last week, and my gut tells me that just as the Saints seemed to tire and become slightly more conservative when the game hinged on them maintaining the pressure that got them a lead, the same could well happen in Miami. The Colts - despite their anaemic rushing attack - will be sure to hold onto the ball after seeing the Vikings come within a whisker of beating the Saints, despite coughing the ball up more times than Victoria Beckham's dinner.

If Gregg Williams has any sense, he will make sure that there is no let up in the defensive strategy and that the team doesn't become over-awed by the fact they are playing against Manning and the Colts.

Prediction

I hate predictions. Do you ever make predictions because you feel like the points you've made are somehow invalid if you don't guess the outcome correctly? It goes back to my feelings about the draft. If a player goes in the first round, but you had him pegged as a third round talent, does that make him a first round talent? Only time can tell you that, but it doesn't mean that either side is 'wrong' per sé.

My suggestion is for you to enjoy what I believe will be more than a match for the excellent Superbowls we've seen over the last couple of years. The last time two no.1 seeds made it this far was after the 1993 season when Buffalo played Dallas. It has become something of a trend that the playoffs throw up so many surprises that you rarely get the chance to see the two teams with the best records in the NFC and AFC face off in the Superbowl, so relish the prospect.

Not only have they made it to Miami, but both teams have managed to be successful without becoming disliked by the majority of opposing fans in the way that the Patriots and Cowboys perhaps polarise opinions. If you want something to root for, then root for Pierre Garçon and the people of Haiti, or root for Sean Payton's Saints and a franchise that needed literally and figuratively rebuilding when they arrived in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006.

Me? I'm rooting for Drew Brees, not because of his friendly nature, his charisma, his quarterbacking ability, or his role in that rebuilding process... no, I'm going with the guy who suffers the same intolerance to wheat and gluten as me, a guy couldn't be in a Wheaties advert even if he tried.

Sunday, 24 January 2010

Jets fans get a harsh lesson from Peyton

So the Indianapolis Colts have defeated the Jets, barring an improbable comeback. This week I've been engaged in debate about my prediction of 30 points for the Colts against what has been an excellent Jets defence over the course of this season.

Peyton Manning schooled the Jets defence and really provided the kind of evidence that sets him apart from every other QB to ever play this game. His call to 'go for it' on 4th down when the Colts were up 17-27 and knocking on the Jets door showed his intelligence and ability to process information far more quickly than his peers. It didn't work, but he was attempting to get the Jets to burn their final timeout or jump offside, despite there clearly being no chance of the team going for it. Of course, it's not the first time a team has done that, but Peyton not only made the call on the fly, but he was aware that it is his own reputation and ability in that situation which creates doubt in opponents minds.

Mark Sanchez had a good game today, and really today's loss is difficult to attribute to him. I would add the caveat that Sanchez simply wasn't ready to be in a situation such as coming from behind against a team such as Indianapolis, which technically means I do give him some of the blame. That's a cerebral issue that Sanchez will likely be able to overcome, and one thing I have liked about him is his excellent mental fortitude in what has been a season with some awful performances.

One big worry for Sanchez would be if he struggles over a prolonged period of a season or so, in that he has not done enough to convince people of his natural footballing ability with his initial impression. Much like Chad Pennington almost a decade ago, he is an intelligent guy who perhaps doesn't have elite physical tools. Personally I think physical ability is not a reason to change direction, and whilst Rex Ryan is in charge there is little chance of him eating his words about Sanchez being the future of the organisation, but if another coach comes to NYC, don't be surprised if 'Sanchize' is one of the first casualties.

I don't need to re-emphasise the point that I have laboured over the upcoming draft class, that I consider a mentally exceptional QB to be more important than their physical counterpart. I don't place Sanchez in that category by any strength, but I thought he made a couple of heads up plays that emphasised not necessarily his own decision-making ability, but his ability to process information and to know the context of a game. That attribute is crucial to any QB, and whilst there will be a few questions about how he reads an individual play, his pre-snap ability is not a quality that I have any question about.

The future could be very bright for the Jets under Rex Ryan. They have made great strides under his leadership, and for me the big question is how happy Jet fans would be if next season they missed the playoffs. It's the inability of fans to see the bigger picture that has done for more than one head coach on NYC, and remember that this year with such low expectations coming into the season, the playoffs was a huge bonus. The fact that some fans didn't see how the Colts could put up 30 on their defence is an important lesson about respecting your opponents and not simply concentrating on how well your own team has been playing.

Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Superbowl prediction: Minnesota vs Indianapolis

Last week I went 4/4 on the divisional playoff games and, typically, didn't bother putting my money where my mouth was. That's the law of gambling right there: If you have a hunch and don't put money on it, it will definitely come off.

This weekend I'm not betting again, but here's what I like in the Conference championships:

NFC: Minnesota @ New Orleans

Why Minnesota? Well, there are a few reasons, but mainly this comes down to New Orleans and their fragile balance. The Saints are constantly in danger of giving up big points, and their performances throughout the regular season hovered close to disaster on many occasions. Statistically, New Orleans has one of the worst passing defences in the league, down amongst Oakland, Detroit, and St Louis. Nobody needs telling that there will be a day that the Saints give up too many points to be able to make up the difference with their excellent offence.

The Vikings look hot, and not only that, but they have a consistent ability to shut down aspects of their opponents' game plans, and force teams to throw the ball more than they may want to. They will bring the heat on Drew Brees, and whilst he is for me, one of the top three QB's in the league, mistakes will inevitably be made. A lot has been made of Reggie Bush's breakout game last week, but the Cardinals are not a strong defensive team, so it's difficult to gauge just how impressive that performance really was in the grand scheme of things.

Overall, it's hard not to like the Saints. I don't think there's a person out there that can't see how great it would be for the city to rebound and win a Superbowl. We'd all love to see it, but sadly I think the Saints will yet again be ruing their lack of a pass defence, much as they have done for the past 5 years.

Prediction: Minnesota 38 New Orleans 28

AFC: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Earlier in the week I mentioned Rex Ryan's lack of consideration in the coach of the year ballot. As many people have pointed out, it is reflective of the Jets and how they performed in the regular season - ie: lucky to be in the playoffs - but for me, Ryan is still one of the best coaches in the league regardless. Don't be surprised if he is the architect of a 4-5 year span of playoff appearances for one of the least consistent teams in the league. his abrasive style means that he'll win few friends outside of New Jersey, but do you imagine many Jets fans suddenly giving a damn about their public image after years of tarnishing it?

This week though, the Colts are perhaps a step too far. The Jets have a chance of winning if they can make some big plays in the secondary, but one of the biggest issues will be if the Colts score first. You don't need me to say that Peyton Manning could easily put up 40+ points on Sunday, regardless of who he is playing. the question is whether Mark Sanchez is capable of leading a big comeback win. That will be for me, the biggest question of the night. Sanchez deserves some credit for knowing his limitations, but so far he has rarely been asked to exceed them, whereas to beat a team like the Colts, your team needs to be able to call any play in the playbook. I don't think Sanchez is at that point yet.

Indy themselves are in great shape. The offence has been playing within itself for some time now, but last week when the team needed a score before half time at the Ravens' 4yd line, there was a moment that summed up why this team is simply the best in the league. With 7 seconds left and no timeouts left, Peyton Manning forced the Ravens to call a timeout themselves simply by showing them that he was prepared to try one more play. The Ravens, expecting the field goal unit, were caught short, and that time-out bought Manning, Wayne, and Clark the chance to talk with Tom Moore and Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. There may not be a trio of more clutch players in the red-zone, and it was almost inevitable that Wayne's quick slant route resulted in a TD.

This kind of psychological battle is what separates a team that knows it's ability from a team that knows it is playing above it's expectations.

An underrated facet of the Colts is the stellar linebacker play, particularly from Clint Session and Gary Brackett, who are both good against the run and the pass. Brackett in particular is getting a lot of big plays from his MLB spot, and don't be surprised if he's spotted in the Jets' backfield come Sunday.

The Jets have beaten teams that are better than them, and they've even beaten the Colts, but for the purposes of this game it is hard to see past the team who's main weaknesses may not be as big a factor on Sunday. Take for example, the inexperienced Indianapolis cornerbacks, who have looked shaky. Do you see Mark Sanchez manipulating them in the way that a veteran QB could do? What about the running game, that hasn't been particularly stellar for many years? Well something tells me that the Jets' excellent run defence won't be an area that the Colts would be looking to exploit anyway.

New York Jets 10 Indianapolis 30

Saturday, 23 August 2008

Concerns lingering about Manning's knee

Ok Ok, we'll admit, this will completely contradict something posted earlier on the site - but who cares? Not me, and that's the main thing. It's one of the beauties of having more than one opinion contributing to a common cause.

Anyway...

With the 30th August deadline rapidly approaching for teams to cut their rosters down to 53, one interesting question will be what the Colts do at the Quarterback position. Peyton Manning has spent a great deal of time rehabbing his knee after an infected bursa-sac was removed in mid-July. Despite reassurances early in the process that the injury would not mean missing any regular season time, coach Tony Dungy has sounded more coy over the last week.

"Everybody can say, 'Oh, if Peyton Manning isn't playing, the Colts are going to be a .500 team. I don't think anybody here believes that. Is it easier to win without Peyton? No. It's going to be tougher."

- Indianapolis Colts Coach, Tony Dungy

As we always say about these kind of statements, the mere consideration of this eventuality means that the team accepts that Manning could actually miss the start of this season. That's not to say that it's a certainty by any means, as you can bet your house on Manning starting if he's even 75% ready to play. The man is as durable as he is talented, but even he concedes that the challenge has been "something totally different than I've ever had to experience."

Next Saturday should give a clear indication of how close Manning is to making the opener. On the roster are four Quarterbacks: Manning, backup Jim Sorgi, former - and in many ways, current - Giant Jared Lorenzen, and Quinn Gray, who started four games for Jacksonville last year. Sorgi has started the pre-season games so far, but has looked far from impressive.

To us, it feels like the Colts are hedging their bets here. The team is usually set with just the two QB's on the roster by this point in the pre-season, and has rarely entertained the prospect of a third, let alone having an open competition for the spot. It all seems like a remarkable coincidence that the Colts would feel the need to do so this year, and if we were gamblers, we'd probably shorten the odds on him missing the opener right now. During the last week, when he was rolled out at practice to sate the press, Manning has looked like exactly what he is: an injured player. The guy can hardly walk, let alone play, and with just two weeks until the team take on Chicago in a rematch of Superbowl XLI, there isn't a great deal of time for Manning to regain confidence in his knee, let alone his team mates.

Manning has not missed a game in his ten years in the league up to this point, but it seems that at least short term, Indy may be forced to consider what life is like without their talisman.

Sunday, 3 August 2008

Live Football tonight

Hallelujah. It's been a long 6 months for most of us. Sure there's the draft, and there's Free Agency, and hey, Brett Favre did his bit to keep things interesting. Once we even watched CFL, things were that desperate.

But nothing compares to seeing the NFL live - even in a preseason game.

Tonight the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins will contest the Hall of Fame matchup in Canton, Ohio. The game follows the induction of Darrell Green, Art Monk, Gary Zimmerman, Thurman Thomas, Andre Tippett, and Fred Dean into the Hall of Fame in Canton. That ceremony was held yesterday.

It's easy to doubt the value of preseason games to players - seeing as how most starters will play a quarter at most - but to the average fan (or manic obsessive like wide-right), there is nothing like the excitement that starts to build around this time of year.

For UK viewers, the game is live on Sky Sports 2 at 1am.

Wednesday, 2 July 2008

Colts' Defence missing key players

When Training Camp begins for the Indianapolis Colts on July 24th, it will do so without three of it's starters, two of which are keystone pieces to a Defence that can blow hot and cold against the run.

Safety Bob Sanders, End Dwight Freeney, and Linebacker Tyjuan Hagler will all likely miss Camp, according to the Indianapolis Star. Hagler's situation, a torn pectoral muscle, could well keep him out deep into the season, but it is the injuries to Sanders and Freeney that will concern coach Tony Dungy the most. Freeney is one of the most feared pass rushers in the game, and his Lisfranc injury last season was one of the reasons that the Colts struggled to put pressure on opposing Quarterbacks last year. Without him and Sanders, the Colts look one dimensional in Defence, and have traditionally given up huge numbers on the ground when the duo have been missing.